改革目标和企业风险度测定─—现代企业制度建设的关键

在建立现代企业制度的探索中,原有的“承包制”在实践中已暴露它的不足,与改革的深入不相适应。企业的生机在于竞争和风险。在商品经济条件下,企业经营实际上就是经营者运用创新手段,将受损风险转化为超额收获。而企业生产经营所存在的诸多不确定因素,可以通过概率论中的中心极限定理和经验,借鉴计划评审法（ＰＥＲＴ）中概率估算法对企业的经验风险度作出有价值的测定。     

中国西部开发与美国西部开发的对比研究

通过对美国西部开发和中国西部开发的对比及借鉴美国西部的经济开发策略,对中国西部的经济发展提出了采取“梯度转移”与有条件的“增长极核发展”相结合的经济发展战略模式的建议。     

Financial management: Development of scales

This study is a contribution to the development of family resource management scales, specifically financial management scales. Principal axis factor analysis, with varimax rotation, is used to assess underlying relationships in 23 family resource management variables related to time and money resources. Reliability and content, construct, and criterion-related validity of the scales are assessed. Two scales that are reliable and have some degree of validity are developed: frequency of financial problems and frequency of financial management. The scales could be used in future research, teaching, or counseling to organize financial management concepts.Preparation of this research was supported in part by the Illinois Agricultural Experiment Station. Data were collected in conjunction with the cooperative regional research project NC-182, Family Resource Utilization as a Factor in Determining Economic Well-Being of Rural Families. Cooperating states are Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Minnesota.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois; her current research interests include gender roles, family financial management, and economic well-being.Her current research interests include family financial management and consumer bankruptcy. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Missouri.Her current research interests include the economic well-being of various family forms. She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.She received her Ph.D. from the University of Illinois. Her research interests are economic well-being and quality of life.     

管理技能的因子分析及其对绩效影响的实证研究

本文以在沪三资企业中12家电子制造企业管理人员的有效问卷271份为第一手资料,用因子分析等方法分析了构成这些人员管理技能的四大要素为:领导与激励技能、计划组织与协调技能、决策与创新技能、控制与授权技能;研究的结果表明,并非每项管理技能对提升企业的绩效都起同样的作用。不同绩效企业的管理者对各种管理技能的运用程度是有所不同的。     

人力资源个体价值计量方法——当期实现价值系数法

由于人力资源自身具有复杂性、不确定性的特点,使得人力资源价值难以计量。而准确的计量人力资源价值,尤其是人力资源的个体价值是人力资源会计能否实施的关键因素。针对这个问题,本文在分析前人成果的基础上提出了人力资源当期实现价值系数法计量模型。并通过实例验证了计量模型的实用性。     

基于主体不平等的跨国界河流水资源分配的破产博弈研究

基于破产理论和讨价还价博弈,构建水资源分配的破产博弈模型。借鉴国际水法,构建主体在水资源分配谈判中的议价能力评价指标体系,将议价能力运用到破产博弈模型中,突出主体在水资源分配中的不平等性,减少水资源分配量与贡献、需求量和对水资源依赖程度的非对称性;结合主体的谈判破裂点,根据主体满意度函数的联动函数寻找水资源分配的最优解,使分配能同时满足个体理性和集体理性,并对澜沧江-湄公河流域进行实例研究。     

Multiscale Combined Forecast of Carbon PriceBased on Mixed Structure Data

Accurate forecast of the carbon trading price is of great significance in promoting the scientific and rational development of carbon trading market. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-scale combined forecasting method for carbon price based on mixed structure data. First, the Google Index is used to extract the unstructured data related to the carbon price.The dimensions of unstructured data are reduced based on principal component analysis. Then, EMD is employedto the structured data,unstructured data and the carbon trading price to obtain different IMFs, which are reconstructed by the Fine-to-Coarse technique to get low, high frequency sequence and trend sequence. Furthermore, the three items are predicted respectively by using ARIMA, PLS and neural networks according to the features of each scale in time series. Finally, the forecasting results are summed to get the carbon price forecast sequence. The proposed method is used to forecast carbon price in EU. The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher than that of the single prediction method and the prediction method that time series aren’t decomposed by EMD, which is of great applicability.     

大数据时代国防动员潜力调查之路

如何应用大数据提升国防动员潜力调查的效率是当前政府重点关注的话题。从国防动员潜力大数据的定义和特征着手,分析大数据下国防动员潜力调查所具备的优势,发现仍然存在思维局限、指标不统一、体制不健全、技术缺乏及数据共享与防护难协同等困境。通过思维意识、管理体制、指标体系、核心技术、专业人才、安全共享等六大模块,打破“数据不可用、数据不会用”的现实瓶颈,实现整合国防动员数据资源、延展数据内容和提高工作效率的目标。     

深圳市海外高层次人才引进对三亚市的借鉴与启示

当今人才作为第一资源是各国家与地区之间争夺的对象，如何引进、使用和留住人才对国家和地区的经济发展具有重要意义。深圳市是全国改革开放的先锋军，在海外高层次人才引进方面走在全国前列。对深圳市海外高层次人才引进特色和优势分析，可为三亚市海外高层次人才的引进提供借鉴和启示意义，以促进三亚市发挥自身优势，吸引优势人才资源，为建设海南省国际旅游岛做出一份贡献。     

高等教育规模扩张何以实现——以“资源稀释模型”为视角

＂资源稀释模型＂认为,在家庭经济资源一定的情况下,家庭里的孩子数量越多,每个孩子分到的经济资源就会相应减少;而且家庭的经济资源对孩子是否有机会接受高等教育的影响非常重要。笔者从＂资源稀释模型（Resource Dilution Model）＂这一视角来分析和探讨,上世纪末我国＂高等教育规模扩张＂政策何以得以顺利实施。