山西省文化产业发展的品牌战略

山西省拥有丰富的文化资源,但文化产业发展整体规模较小,品牌较少,结构不均衡,与其它文化产业大省相比还有很大的差距。因此我们要发展文化品牌战略,加强文化创意品牌开发,注重文化内涵提炼,加大宣传力度,扩大传播形式,调动消费者参与到品牌建设中来,使文化资源顺利转化为文化资本,将资源大省变为产业强省。     

文化主导型岳麓山旅游线路设计研究

岳麓山文化资源丰富,文化底蕴深厚,为典型的文化主导型旅游景区。其文化旅游资源具有"古"、"全"、"特"的特征。文章提出了岳麓山文化旅游资源的直接开发、整合提升、历史复原三种开发模式,围绕岳麓山文化旅游内涵从内外两个方面设计了具有吸引力强、潜在价值巨大的旅游文化专线。这将丰富文化旅游开发理论和区域竞争理论的内容,对于提升岳麓山区域旅游形象、指导岳麓山"两型"旅游示范区建设具有积极意义。     

Craigslist Exposed: The Internet-Mediated Hookup

This research examines how people advertise themselves on Craigslist. The authors develop a framework that highlights 13 resources that heterosexual and homosexual men and women offer in Craigslist advertisements. The results reveal that many heterosexual advertisers offer and seek similar resources on Craigslist, whereas gay men primarily use Craigslist to seek and offer sex. About one-fourth of homosexual advertisers are in committed relationships. The authors build on this finding by exploring the extent to which married men use Craigslist for “hookups.” The authors show the extent to which married men solicit responses to 6 different advertisements for sexual encounters that range from safe to high risk.     

论中蒙两国合作开发矿产资源的战略推进导向

蒙古国是中国实施睦邻、富邻、安邻基本政策的主要对象.从2008年6月访问蒙古国签署《中蒙经贸合作中期发展纲要》,到党的十八大做出统筹双边、多边、区域次区域开放合作战略部署,习近平主席一直关注着中蒙两国经贸合作,特别是在矿产资源务实合作方面的进程,并且表示今后将把矿产资源开发作为双边经贸合作重点来加大投入力度.有鉴于此,深入剖析两国合作开发的不利因素和有利条件,切实提出两国合作开发的推进对策意义重大.     

关于养老金替代率计算问题的思考与建议

养老金替代率是衡量养老保障水平高低的重要数据。目前我国的养老金替代率低于世界养老金替代率警戒线。这其中有养老金总体水平不高、结构不合理因素的影响,也有养老金替代率计算问题的影响。本文具体探讨了科学计算养老金替代率的方法、提高养老缴费年限权重以及提高缴费年限权重后增加的养老金资金来源渠道的设想。     

基于数据驱动平滑检验的密度预测评估方法——以香港恒生指数、上证综指和台湾加权指数为例

本文提出了样本内和样本外密度预测评估的数据驱动平滑检验（data-driven smooth test）方法，并分别采用Newey-Tauchen的方法以及West-McCracken的方法来纠正参数估计对样本内和样本外密度预测评估的影响。运用本文提出的检验方法，我们比较了各种最大熵GARCH模型对中国三个股指数据（香港恒生指数、上证综合指数和台湾加权指数）的样本内和样本外预测绩效。结果显示：（1）最大熵GARCH模型可以用来刻画中国股指数据的典型化事实，GARCH模型中考虑了厚尾和偏态特征的Pearson IV分布对中国股指收益率的样本外预测绩效是很重要的；（2）具有较好样本内拟合优度和样本内预测效果的模型未必有很好的样本外密度预测效果，考虑到样本外预测的重要性，实际应用中我们应采用具有较好样本外预测效果的模型。     

移动网络时代图书馆服务模式创新研究

移动网络正在改变人们的工作、生活和阅读习惯。如果不随之更新服务模式，图书馆的读者服务工作将不可避免地面临一场危机。图书馆的使命不仅提供文献资源和服务外，还要提升用户在社会中的知识创造，改造社会。图书馆应进行服务创新才能适应社会发展需求。     

人的需要与激励管理

论述如何根据人的需要进行有效的激励管理。指出管理过程应当以人为本、以满足人的需要为导向 ,调动人的积极性为出发点 ,提高效率、效益为目标。     

面向小康社会的水资源安全保障体系研究

在水资源未来供需平衡分析与水环境演变趋势预测的基础上,对水安全态势进行了预测与辨析;然后从水资源安全供给保障体系、水资源安全需求保障体系、水资源安全贸易保障体系、水资源安全政策保障体系、水资源安全技术保障体系和水资源安全法律保障体系6个方面,研究了水资源安全保障体系的基本组成框架,并初步探讨了水资源安全保障体系的实施策略,在一定程度上完善了我国水资源安全战略的研究内容。     

Guiding Resource Allocations Based on Terrorism Risk

Establishing tolerable levels of risk is one of the most contentious and important risk management decisions. With every regulatory or funding decision for a risk management program, society decides whether or not risk is tolerable. The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program designed to enhance security and overall preparedness to prevent, respond to, and recover from acts of terrorism by providing financial assistance for planning, equipment, training, and exercise needs of large urban areas. After briefly reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation, this article compares estimates of terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004 to other federal risk management decisions. This comparison suggests that UASI allocations are generally consistent with other federal risk management decisions. However, terrorism risk in several cities that received funding is below levels that are often tolerated in other risk management contexts. There are several reasons why the conclusions about terrorism risk being de minimis in specific cities should be challenged. Some of these surround the means used to estimate terrorism risk for this study. Others involve the comparison that is made to other risk management decisions. However, many of the observations reported are valid even if reported terrorism risk estimates are several orders of magnitude too low. Discussion of resource allocation should be extended to address risk tolerance and include explicit comparisons, like those presented here, to other risk management decisions.