The Failure of Labor Dispatch Regulation and Its Remedy

In the course of the drafting, enactment and amendment of the Labor Contract Law of the People’s Republic of China, the legal provisions regulating labor dispatch have been tightened up. In practice, however, the labor dispatch system is flourishing in a way that defies market trends. The ultimate reason for this is that much of the system goes under the name of human resource outsourcing to bamboozle the public and evade the law, in effect making the legal provisions a dead letter. The result is that the more the industry is regulated, the more it multiplies and the more chaotic it becomes. Based on comparative law research methodology, this article reviews the legal systems relating to labor dispatch in Germany, the US and other countries. It demonstrates and affirms the institutional value of the labor dispatch system, and categorizes its different types. The fundamental cause of the phenomenon of labor dispatch’s assumption of the guise of human resource outsourcing is the absence of substantive review. We suggest introducing and perfecting such investigation to stem the industry’s deep-seated abuses.     

Evaluation of realized volatility predictions from models with leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed forecast errors

Accurate volatility forecasting is a key determinant for portfolio management, risk management and economic policy. The paper provides evidence that the sum of squared standardized forecast errors is a reliable measure for model evaluation when the predicted variable is the intra-day realized volatility. The forecasting evaluation is valid for standardized forecast errors with leptokurtic distribution as well as with leptokurtic and asymmetric distributions. Additionally, the widely applied forecasting evaluation function, the predicted mean-squared error, fails to select the adequate model in the case of models with residuals that are leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed. Hence, the realized volatility forecasting evaluation should be based on the standardized forecast errors instead of their unstandardized version.     

我国信息社会发展与波动研究

利用国家信息中心2013年1月发布的信息社会发展指数（ ISI），对我国信息社会及其重点领域发展水平作了比较分析和趋势分析，发现自2001年以来，我国信息化不断推进，信息化是遍及各省市的。然而，全国信息化的推进并不均衡。ISI指数年均增幅在2001年—2008年间仅4.4％，在2009年—2012年间为8.9％，增加了1倍多；地区间差距也在扩大，东、西部省市区信息社会存在“发展转型—相对停滞”的发展模式。在这样的背景下，文章研究了决定信息社会发展的决定因素，并比较研究信息社会发展较快地区和较慢地区的特征。主要的实证结果是：人力资源开发、生产方式转型、基础设施建设和数字包容发展对信息社会发展具有重要的促进作用。     

Resource Dependence Patterns and Organizational Behavior/Structure in Korean Nonprofit Organizations

This article examines the relationships among the three dimensions of resource dependence patterns (RDPs) and organizational formalization and goals in nonprofit organizations (NPOs). These three RDPs (that is, the appearance of the financial resource inflow) are resource dependency, resource diversity, and resource competitiveness. The empirical findings suggest that high dependency on government funding (high resource dependency) is positively associated with organizational formalization, although resource diversity does not have any explanatory power on organizational behavior and structure, and that a very competitive environment for resource acquisition significantly affects goal setting in NPOs. In particular, resource competitiveness well explains goal clarity and goal change in NPOs. NPOs with high resource competitiveness present clearer organizational goals or missions and are likely to experience frequent goal change.     

广州社区教育网络课程资源建设模式构建

网络课程在实现教学资源的共建共享、促进全民终生教育目标的实现中发挥着重要作用。本文拟在对社区网络课程资源需求影响因素分析的基础上,对依托高职资源建设社区网络课程进行探讨,并以Bb平台为支撑,对社区网络课程资源建设模式提出自己的思考。     

基于层次分析法的牡丹江市环城游憩资源评价

随着人民生活水平的提高和工作压力的加大,休闲旅游备受旅游者青睐,但限于假期的时长,环城游憩成为城市居民放松休闲的首选。牡丹江市的环城游憩资源丰富,以牡丹江市环城游憩带旅游资源为研究对象,应用AHP层次分析法对其进行定量分析,得到每个景点的权重,再用模糊记分法给每个景点打分,从而对牡丹江市环城游憩带旅游资源进行综合评价,对游憩带景区景点的发展提出一些建议和对策。     

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980–2014 Case Study

The estimated cost of fire in the United States is about $329 billion a year, yet there are gaps in the literature to measure the effectiveness of investment and to allocate resources optimally in fire protection. This article fills these gaps by creating data‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows high R² values (≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numerical analyses provide techniques and insights to aid the strategic decision‐making process. The results from this model are used to calculate fire risk scores for various geographic regions, which can be used as an indicator of fire risk. A case study of federal fire grant allocation is used to validate and show the utility of the optimal RA model. The results also identify potential underinvestment and overinvestment in fire protection in certain regions. This article presents scenarios in which the model presented outperforms the existing RA scheme, when compared in terms of the correlation of resources allocated with actual number of fire incidents. This article provides some novel insights to policymakers and analysts in fire protection and safety that would help in mitigating economic costs and saving lives.     

Neoliberalism and altered state developmentalism in the twenty-first century extractive regime of Indonesia

ABSTRACT

This article examines neoliberal leverage, states and ‘deep marketization’ in relation to resource extraction in Indonesia. The concept of ‘altered’ state developmentalism within a world-historical analysis of the semi-peripheral zone of the world-economy is introduced to address how much and in what ways resource extraction persists and even continues to expands. While most theories of development assume either that natural resource extraction will gradually fade or that the ‘curse’ of natural resources requires institutional reform, Indonesia’s ‘extractive regime’ persistently and under different political systems relies on extraction of land, forest, and mineral resources. Altered state developmentalism occurs, from this perspective, within a world-historical cycle of resource nationalism (CRN) as US hegemony declines. In contrast to the A first CRN’s put more emphasis on nationalizing ownership, e for progressive redistribution aims and industrial transformation. In contrast to the first CRN's emphasis on nationalizing ownership, empirical evidence from the oil, mining, and oil palm sectors illustrate how the advance of neoliberalism is tempered in the second CRN by altered developmentalism that aspires for growth and poverty reduction in a more market-oriented direction pushed by neoliberal leverage. While accommodating some pressures for land rights against the expansion of extractive frontiers, the overall thrust expands the conditions for yet more deep marketization.     

Improving the accuracy and operational predictability of project cost forecasts: an adaptive combination approach

Conducting an early warning forecast to detect potential cost overrun is essential for timely and effective decision-making in project control. This paper presents a forecast combination model that adaptively identifies the best forecast and optimises various combinations of commonly used project cost forecasting models. To do so, a forecast error simulator is formulated to visualise and quantify likely error profiles of forecast models and their combinations. The adaptive cost combination (ACC) model was applied to a pilot project for numerical illustration as well as to real world projects for practical implementation. The results provide three valuable insights into more effective project control and forecasting. First, the best forecasting model may change in individual projects according to the project progress and the management priority (i.e. accuracy, outperformance or large errors). Second, adaptive combination of simple, index-based forecasts tends to improve forecast accuracy, while mitigating the risk of large errors. Third, a post-mortem analysis of seven real projects indicated that the simple average of two most commonly used cost forecasts can be 31.2% more accurate, on average, than the most accurate alternative forecasts.     

人口红利转折期及其因应之策--以江苏常州为例

我国已连续三年出现劳动年龄人口比重下降和劳动年龄人口绝对数减少的趋势，表明人口红利转折期正在到来。这一状况所产生的影响对更多依赖外来人力资源的经济发达地区更加明显，且从经济层面波及到了民生层面。根据当前的人力资源状况，结合产业和社会发展需要，“十三五”时期，应将原有的人才战略扩展为人力资源保障战略，做到一手抓人才队伍建设，一手抓基本人力资源保障，确保在未来的经济、社会发展中能够获得全面而又稳定的人力资源支撑。