基于平衡记分卡的企业绩效评价体系构建

构建科学合理的企业绩效评价体系对真实客观地反映企业经营业绩、促进企业结构优化具有重要意义。面对多样化的组织形态,过于关注财务指标和内部指标的传统绩效评价体系已不再适用,取而代之的是财务与非财务指标、内部与外部指标相结合的综合绩效评价方法。在文献分析的基础上,建立企业绩效评价体系的基本框架,并在平衡记分卡视角下引入社会贡献度指标进行优化,构建企业绩效评价指标体系,采用层次分析法确定各项评价指标的权重,并以某企业为实例进行计算验证。结果表明,该评价体系适用于中小型工业企业,能够比较全面、客观地反映企业经营业绩。     

中国共产党在中国近现代史上的历史功绩

胡锦涛总书记在七一讲话中科学界定了中国共产党在我国近现代史上的历史方位、历史地位、历史作用和历史贡献,以史证明了中国共产党的伟大、光荣和正确,揭示了中国共产党成功的历史资源,使人们对中国共产党的认同、信赖有了厚重的历史感。     

Inference in Approximately Sparse Correlated Random Effects Probit Models With Panel Data

Abstract

We propose a simple procedure based on an existing “debiased” l₁-regularized method for inference of the average partial effects (APEs) in approximately sparse probit and fractional probit models with panel data, where the number of time periods is fixed and small relative to the number of cross-sectional observations. Our method is computationally simple and does not suffer from the incidental parameters problems that come from attempting to estimate as a parameter the unobserved heterogeneity for each cross-sectional unit. Furthermore, it is robust to arbitrary serial dependence in underlying idiosyncratic errors. Our theoretical results illustrate that inference concerning APEs is more challenging than inference about fixed and low-dimensional parameters, as the former concerns deriving the asymptotic normality for sample averages of linear functions of a potentially large set of components in our estimator when a series approximation for the conditional mean of the unobserved heterogeneity is considered. Insights on the applicability and implications of other existing Lasso-based inference procedures for our problem are provided. We apply the debiasing method to estimate the effects of spending on test pass rates. Our results show that spending has a positive and statistically significant average partial effect; moreover, the effect is comparable to found using standard parametric methods.     

Group living decisions as youths transition to adulthood

This study follows teens through young adulthood as they transition to independent living. We focus on a little studied issue: why some youths live in groups rather than alone or with parents. This choice is important because the size of the group has a substantial impact on the demand for dwelling units; the more youths per dwelling the lower is aggregate demand and the greater is population density. Our study also adds to the knowledge of which factors influence youths' choice of destination as they leave the parental home. The empirical testing uses a discrete hazard model within a multinomial logit framework to allow for more than one possible state transition. We find that economic variables have little impact on the decision of whether to exit to a large versus a small group, while socio-demographic variables matter. We also test a new push-pull hypothesis and find that the pull of economic variables on the probability of exiting the parental home increases as youths reach their mid to late twenties. Received: 15 July 1999/Accepted: 15 May 2000     

C^1连续的插值X—样条曲线的构造及性质

C.Blanc和C.Schlick提出了C^2连续的插值X-样条曲线,这里给出了C^1连续的插值X-样条曲线的构造算法及性质。     

Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility: A test using indian microdata

In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children's death is not the only link between fertility decision and children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed. Received: 20 August 1998/Accepted: 19 July 1999     

民族地区经济可持续发展与电力需求研究

以内蒙古为例,结合民族地区电力供需现状,运用GM(1,1)马尔可夫模型对内蒙古用电需求量进行预测.预测结果证明,利用GM(1,1)马尔可夫模型预测电力需求行之有效,预测结论对内蒙古未来几年的电力规划及建设具有重要的指导作用.     

Robust multivariate Bayesian forecasting under functional distortions in the -metric

This paper investigates robustness of multivariate forecasting in the Bayesian framework. The minimax approach is used to construct robust statistical procedures under deviations from hypothetical assumptions. The deviations are defined as functional distortions using the χ²-pseudo-metric. Two cases of deviations are considered: distortions of parameter distribution and distortions of joint distribution of observations and parameters. Explicit forms for the guaranteed upper risk functional are obtained and integral equations for robust prediction statistics are given for both cases.     

A new geometric first-order integer-valued autoregressive (NGINAR(1)) process

A new stationary first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with geometric marginal distributions is introduced based on negative binomial thinning. Some properties of the process are established. Estimators of the parameters of the process are obtained using the methods of conditional least squares, Yule–Walker and maximum likelihood. Also, the asymptotic properties of the estimators are derived involving their distributions. Some numerical results of the estimators are presented with a discussion to the obtained results. Real data are used and a possible application is discussed.     

M1和M2作为货币政策中介目标的适用性研究

 M1、M2均符合可测性要求。稳定性检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表明,M1比M2更具可控性。Johansen协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应分析结果和基于M1、M2相对增长速度的分析结果表明,M1与货币政策最终目标的相关性好于M2。因此,我国仍应将M1作为货币政策中介目标,将M2作为观测目标,并要加强对M1的相对增长速度的调控。