路径与旨趣：近代浙江文化史研究嬗变

近代江南史研究见证并参与了近代中国社会文化的变迁,相比上海、苏南等地,浙江近代文化史研究亟需进一步拓展与深化。以革命与事件、结构与认同、学人与学派等研究路径为线索,回顾浙江近代文化史研究的关键要素,应能展望今后研究的方向：去意识形态化、突破单向度思维,以多元视角阐释近代浙江的革命群体与事件;揭示近代浙江文化现象背后深层次的社会关系和权力关系、结构与心态、集体记忆与文化认同,进一步认知近代精英与民众、国家与社会的能动关系;浙江学人在近代学术流变中发挥承前启后的作用,学人学术思想的本意及其实践成为近代浙学重建的重要参考。运用整体视角综合事件、结构、学理,积极拓展史料与理论范式,深入发掘近代浙江文化的历史经验和内在脉络,将为探索中国原理提供有效的知识与思想资源。     

Addressing potential prior‐data conflict when using informative priors in proof‐of‐concept studies

Bayesian methods are increasingly used in proof‐of‐concept studies. An important benefit of these methods is the potential to use informative priors, thereby reducing sample size. This is particularly relevant for treatment arms where there is a substantial amount of historical information such as placebo and active comparators. One issue with using an informative prior is the possibility of a mismatch between the informative prior and the observed data, referred to as prior‐data conflict. We focus on two methods for dealing with this: a testing approach and a mixture prior approach. The testing approach assesses prior‐data conflict by comparing the observed data to the prior predictive distribution and resorting to a non‐informative prior if prior‐data conflict is declared. The mixture prior approach uses a prior with a precise and diffuse component. We assess these approaches for the normal case via simulation and show they have some attractive features as compared with the standard one‐component informative prior. For example, when the discrepancy between the prior and the data is sufficiently marked, and intuitively, one feels less certain about the results, both the testing and mixture approaches typically yield wider posterior‐credible intervals than when there is no discrepancy. In contrast, when there is no discrepancy, the results of these approaches are typically similar to the standard approach. Whilst for any specific study, the operating characteristics of any selected approach should be assessed and agreed at the design stage; we believe these two approaches are each worthy of consideration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新工业革命下物联网与产业融合关系研究

在新工业革命的大趋势下,互联网与物联网的发展促生了新的产业融合方式,并加快了产业融合的速度与进程。分析物联网与产业融合的发展现状、二者关系以及物联网对产业融合五种形式的促进作用,并从物联网的感知层、网络层和应用层入手,研究产业融合对物联网发展的推动效果,提出运用物联网促进产业融合发展的对策建议。     

新工业革命下我国制造业发展路径分析

探讨新工业革命下我国制造业转型升级的路径。阐述我国制造业的现状,分析新工业革命给我国制造业发展带来的挑战和机遇,提出我国制造业战略转型升级的新思路:以两化融合为契机,加大制造业人力资本投入,加强核心技术研发,完善制造业公共创新服务体系并进一步构建新型政策扶持机制,推进科技成果转化。     

恋爱与革命——以20世纪中国文学为例

革命是20世纪中国公共领域最大的事件,恋爱婚姻是个人私人领域能自主决定的最重要的事件。在20世纪这百年时间里,在不同的"革命"阶段,革命与恋爱先后呈现出合一、磨合、革命规范恋爱、革命禁锢恋爱、恋爱与革命相剥离以及革命消失后恋爱呈现出的身体性情形。革命与恋爱关系的变化,可以折射出20世纪中国社会变化的轨迹,映射出百年来人们不同的生存状态。     

诗界革命采用保守方式的原因探微

诗界革命是多元发生的、本土化的、保守的汉诗改良运动。它是特定时代的产物,既有诗的因素,更有政治体制和文化思想变革等非诗的因素。晚清诗坛的进步势力与保守势力既对抗更和解的局势决定了诗界革命的保守改良性质。保守也来源于那些热衷改革的进步文人,他们在政治体制上不得不“全盘西化”,为了求得心理平衡,甚至因为自卑而产生自负,他们更加重视甚至高估本土文化,加上当时对外国诗歌的“先进性”的了解远不如对外国科学及政治体制的了解。古代汉诗特别是定型诗体格律诗体成了封建专制的象征物和封建文人聊以自慰的心理寄托品。在社会改革大潮冲击下,他们只愿意对汉诗进行“本土化”改良。因此诗界革命只在汉诗的语言特别是词语上作了适度的改良,根本没有涉及到汉诗文体的两大基本成分——诗体和诗家话的实质性变革。诗界革命采用保守的改良方针具有一定的合理性。     

Educational assortative mating and time use in the home

This study examines the association between individuals' educational assortative mating and time spent on child care and housework. Focus is put on hypogamous couples, or couples in which wives have more education than their husbands. Relative resources and gender revolution frameworks are considered as contexts to explain why hypogamous couples may share their time differently than other couples. A series of ordinary least squares regressions with population and sampling weights are employed using American Time Use Survey data from 2003 to 2018. Three, separate analyses using relative education, gender, and all educational pairings as the independent variables of interest are presented with child care and housework as the dependent variables. The current findings show that men in hypogamous marriages perform about 10 min more of child care per day on average than their peers in hypergamous and homogamous marriages, and that this comes primarily from basic care activities. This accounts for approximately 43% of the difference between men and women in the average amount of time spent on child care. No clear pattern of significance is apparent comparing individuals’ time spent on housework by relative education, suggesting that housework and child care have evolved differently in the context of gendered domestic responsibilities. Men in hypogamous marriages are more egalitarian in their sharing of child care. However, this is only true for couples in which men have at least a high school diploma and women are highly educated.     

大数据在重大行政决策中的应用及其法治化

大数据在重大行政决策领域的应用,属于技术理性与决策规则的有机融合。凭借信息来源与技术革新,大数据可赋予传统决策向数字化转型的新动能。大数据的应用贯穿于重大行政决策始终,在市场监管、环境保护等多类事项中所发挥的实践优势较为明显,能够推动决策的高效化、提升决策的精准度、增强决策机关之间的联动。然而,大数据应用可能会引发决策安全的隐忧、个人数据存在的空间被挤压以及决策失误的责任承担等难题。对前述问题提出对策的过程,实乃数据治理向治理数据的转变,此阶段不能欠缺法律法规的引导,应尝试从决策数据安全体系的法治保障、个人数据的法律保护、决策责任追究机制的科学建构等层面去推动大数据应用的法治化。     

Pathways from workplace flexibility to turnover intention: Role of work–family conflict,family–work conflict,and job satisfaction

This study examined the prevalence of workplace flexibility and the mechanisms that allow workplace flexibility to influence turnover intentions through work–family and family–work conflicts and job satisfaction among low‐wage workers in South Korea. Participants included 250 low‐wage workers whose monthly salary was less than 2 million Korean won (approx. $1,900). The study results indicate that low‐wage workers have limited access to workplace flexibility and that workplace flexibility plays a significant protective role in reducing their turnover intention, indirectly by decreasing work–family conflicts and enhancing job satisfaction. This article also discusses the implications of these findings for labor policy and social work practice.     

Challenges and dilemmas working with high‐conflict families in child protection casework

Social workers within child protection services report that families marked by high levels of conflict between separated parents are among the most challenging cases to handle. Few studies however have focussed on how social workers themselves experience and meet with parents involved in hostile martial interactions. This article reports on a qualitative study involving 31 social workers and provides an analysis of their experiences and dilemmas in working with such families. Findings demonstrate that social workers struggle to find ways to help high‐conflict families and often find themselves at an impasse. Parents involved in such conflict are highly resistant to change, and social workers struggle to engage with them over concerns about their children. Furthermore, findings suggest that social workers lack organizationally allotted time to assist the parents. I conclude by discussing ways in which emotional support, empowering interventions, and strength‐based approaches enable social workers to manage relationships with high‐conflict families. More research on this topic is needed to support and promote better practices for social workers to be more effective in assisting high‐conflict families.