双循环驱动我国城市产业转移效应研究

基于201个城市的相关数据,利用动态面板模型和空间杜宾模型,实证分析了内循环、外循环和双循环对产业转移的影响。研究结果表明：前期产业转移在一定程度上会影响后期产业转移,前一期当地产业比例较大,其后产业转移受到的促进作用也较大;内循环、外循环和双循环均对产业转移起到显著的正向促进作用,东部城市受到的促进作用略高于中西部城市;要素流动在产业转移中发挥着重要作用,劳动力要素流动、技术要素流动和资本要素流动不仅受到内、外循环和双循环的促进作用,同时对产业转移也起到一定的促进作用;产业转移具有空间相关性,产业在空间上倾向于向产业转入较高的城区转移。为此,我国在政策上应进一步加快推动内循环,促进外循环,关注要素流动在产业转移中的重要作用,合理分配要素资源。     

Heterogeneous treatment effects on Children's cognitive/non-cognitive skills: A reevaluation of an influential early childhood intervention

The 1962–67 High/Scope Perry Preschool Program, a well-known experimental early childhood intervention study that provided quality preschool education to disadvantaged children, has been shown to have had positive impacts on early child development and on a variety of adulthood outcomes. However, most previous analyses have only examined average treatment effects across all program participants without exploring possible effect heterogeneity by children's background characteristics. We investigated this question by first using the 1964–65 Current Population Survey data in combination with the Perry data to construct a scale of child socioeconomic status based on the estimated propensity for inclusion in the Perry program, then analyzing effect heterogeneity within the Perry sample by strata of our socioeconomic scale. We found that the treatment effects of enrollment in the Perry preschool on cognitive and non-cognitive skills were much larger and more persistent among the most disadvantaged children than among others in the Perry program. Furthermore, among the most disadvantaged children, the treatment (i.e., preschool enrollment) affects later outcomes through a reinforcement mechanism of skill development (i.e., early cognitive gain leads to a non-cognitive gain, which in turn leads to later cognitive gain) and a sequential improvement of cognitive skills over time. These findings have important implications for the evaluation of policy interventions in early child development using experimental data.     

Accurate estimation for extra-Poisson variability assuming random effect models

In this study, the components of extra-Poisson variability are estimated assuming random effect models under a Bayesian approach. A standard existing methodology to estimate extra-Poisson variability assumes a negative binomial distribution. The obtained results show that using the proposed random effect model it is possible to get more accurate estimates for the extra-Poisson variability components when compared to the use of a negative binomial distribution where it is possible to estimate only one component of extra-Poisson variability. Some illustrative examples are introduced considering real data sets.     

校园媒体对大学校园文化建设的功能探析

校园媒体对大学校园文化建设的主要功能是舆论引导功能和文化上的同构建设功能。深受世界范围内媒体环境变革的影响,校园媒体对校园文化建设的功能面临新挑战。为应对这一挑战,校园媒体在舆论引导功能上要加强舆论导向与传播效果的统一、党性原则与受众意识的统一;在媒介文化建设上要深入研究“三贴近”方法,办有亲和力的校园权威媒体。本文同时还探讨了新形势下校园媒体新作用的正负效应及相应对策。     

数字化发展、制度环境与政府舆情治理质量

基于2016—2020年我国31个省级行政区的面板数据,考察数字化发展、制度环境与政府舆情治理质量之间的关系。研究发现,数字化发展对政府舆情治理质量具有改善效应;相比制度环境较差的省份,数字化发展对舆情治理质量的改善效应在制度环境较好的省份更为显著。异质性检验表明,数字化发展对政府舆情治理质量的改善效应在数字化水平高的省份、制度环境较好但数字化水平低的省份显著,在制度环境较好的省份、制度环境较差的东部省份显著。研究结论为借助数字化发展改善政府舆情治理质量提供了理论依据。     

Double robust estimator in general treatment regimes based on Covariate-balancing

Double robust estimators have double the chance of being a consistent estimator of a causal effect in binary treatments cases. In this paper, we proposed an estimator of a causal effect for general treatment regimes based on covariate-balancing. Under parametrical situation, our estimator has double robustness.     

The effect of media sexism on women’s political ambition: evidence from a worldwide study

This paper presents results from one of the first global studies on the relationship between media sexism and the share of candidates for the lower chamber of national parliaments who are women. Data on media sexism come from the Global Media Monitoring Project, the most reliable worldwide source for media coverage from a gender perspective. The data on share of female political candidates come from the Inter-Parliamentary Union. The results show that that there is, even when controlling for the number of women in parliament, electoral system, gender quotas, level of human development, level of women’s rights, freedom from corruption, and media access, a significant relationship between media sexism—measured as (i) the share of all news subjects that are women and (ii) the share of all news subjects portrayed in the function of experts who are women—and the share of women candidates for parliament: the higher the level of media sexism, the lower the share of women candidates. The theory discussed zooms in on a bystander effect: We hypothesize that sexist portrayals of women in the media stifle ambition among women who, in a less sexist media environment, would be willing to stand as political candidates.     

Education,cognitive ability,and cause-specific mortality: A structural approach

Education is negatively associated with most major causes of death. Prior work ignores the premise that cause-specific hazards are interdependent and that both education and mortality depend on cognitive ability. We analyse Swedish men aged 18–63, focusing on months lost due to specific causes—which solves the interdependence problem—and use a structural model that accounts for confounding due to cognitive ability. In a standard Cox model controlling for Intelligence Quotient, improving education is associated with large decreases in mortality for major causes of death. In the structural model, improving education is associated with a small decrease in months lost for most causes and education levels. Among the least educated, however, improving education strongly reduces the months lost, mainly those lost from external causes, such as accidents and suicide. Results suggest that conventional analysis of education and mortality may be biased, even if accounting for observed cognition.     

微信公众号影响力指数建构与量化评估

作为被广泛使用的社交媒体,微信已经成为热点事件和网络舆情的重要策源地,科学准确评估微信公众号的影响力对于明晰微信信息传播特点,深入挖掘微信传播潜力,进一步规范和指导微信平台的传播行为具有较大的理论和实践意义。在对既有关于微信公众号影响力研究进行梳理和评价的基础上,基于传播效果测量的设计,坚持以受众为中心、由浅入深多层次考察准则,运用德尔菲法和层次分析法建构一套微信公众号影响力指标体系。该指标体系由4个一级指标和9个二级指标构成,并运用线性合成法合成微信公众号影响力指数。     

论政府对会计监管的必要性、缺陷和效果

政府会计监管对纠正市场失灵、重新配置社会经济资源和调节经济运行有显著效果。同时 ,也存在严重缺陷 ,其表现为 :政府垄断会计规范制定权导致政府行为低效率 ;政府监管目标多元化导致政府角色冲突 ;政府会计监管部门行动不协调导致会计监管效率下降。政府会计监管要适度 ,监管不足和监管过度都是监管效果低下的表现。我国会计监管的现状是监管不足和监管过度两者并存