Coherent decision analysis with inseparable probabilities and utilities

This article explores the extent to which a decision maker's probabilities can be measured separately from his/her utilities by observing his/her acceptance of small monetary gambles. Only a partial separation is achieved: the acceptable gambles are partitioned into a set of belief gambles, which reveals probabilities distorted by marginal utilities for money, and a set of preference gambles, which reveals utilities reciprocally distorted by marginal utilities for money. However, the information in these gambles still enables us to solve the decision maker's problem: his/her utility-maximizing decision is the one that avoids arbitrage (i.e., incoherence or Dutch books).     

De minimis and equity in risk

Indices and orderings are developed for evaluating alternative strategies in the management of risk. They reflect the goals of reducing individual and collective risks, of increasing equity, and of assigning priority to the reduction and to the equity of high risks. Individual risk is defined as the (random or non-random) level of exposure to a danger. In particular the role of a lower negligibility level is investigated. A class of indices is proposed which involves two parameters, a negligibility level and a parameter of inequality aversion, and several interpretations of the indices are discussed. We provide a set of eight axioms which are necessary and sufficient for this class of indices, and we present an approach to deal with partial information on the parameters.     

网络时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制研究——基于价值累加理论的扎根分析

随着互联网的飞速发展,农产品质量安全事件借助网络媒体持续关联与聚合、发酵与扩散,极大地影响着公众的情感和态度,易引发集体非理性恐慌,网络时代信息扩散和迭代呈现全新特征和趋势,故加强农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制研究具有重要意义。基于斯梅尔塞的价值累加理论,结合“土坑酸菜”事件,利用Python技术获取媒体原始资料,对资料进行扎根编码分析,构建农产品质量安全事件风险放大机制模型。根据编码结果识别出农产品质量安全事件风险放大六大主范畴,包括结构性诱因、结构性紧张、一般化信念、(有效的)组织动员、社会控制、风险放大,将主范畴内容纳入价值累加理论六大因素中,分析表明农产品质量安全事件风险放大是以突发事件为分界点,分为前期蓄势、中期造势、紧急处理三个阶段,前期蓄势和中期造势阶段通过多轮循环相互反馈影响,最终放大农产品质量安全事件风险。在整个风险扩散过程中,网络是农产品质量安全事件风险的“社会放大站”,其加速了信息传播,强化了公众风险感知。本研究运用价值累加理论、基于宏观和微观整合层面,细化探究了网络时代农产品质量安全事件风险放大的完整过程机制,进一步完善了风险放大SARF研究框架,为相关研究做了有益补充。     

营造“包容性空间”:国际化社区的治理策略研究

营造包容性空间,构建包容性社会,加快推进空间治理的现代化进程,是现代化治理的重要目标。基于江苏省南京市Q社区的空间营造案例,从社区空间营造策略的视角出发,剖析国际化社区如何营造包容性空间。研究发现,基层政府基于中国居民与外籍人士的空间服务需求,运用多元参与、互动协商、文化治理等软性手段,通过建设人与居住地、社会、自然相融合的表征的包容性空间,组织温度、服务与文化协同相融的包容性空间的实践,构筑开放、包容与共享的包容性空间的表征等方式营造包容性空间。在营造包容性空间的过程中,基层政府空间营造行动的关键策略是采用“分型管理、内育外引”的主体包容策略、“内外兼修、空间包容”的技术包容策略、“多元网格、协商自治”的制度包容策略及“制度共融、成果共享”的结果包容策略,其根本目标在于打造国际化社区的治理共同体。包容性空间的治理技术对优化基层政府的空间治理能力、提升居民的参与水平与再造国际化社区秩序有积极效应,但亦潜藏多主体协同失序、政社关系掣肘、族群关系区隔、文化不稳定及包容性制度偏差等失灵风险。因此,基层政府需厚植多主体合作的治理机制、经营包容性空间的“适度性”,以利于国际化社区善治目标的实现。     

Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.     

Gender roles,HIV risk behaviors,and perceptions of using female condoms among college students

The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between gender roles and HIV risk behavior, and perceptions and acceptance of the female condom among college students (n = 410). It was hypothesized that high hyperfeminine females and high hypermasculine males – those adhering to traditional gender roles – would engage in more HIV risk behaviors, including alcohol and drug use and various sexual practices, than those with lower hyperfemininity and hypermasculinity. It was also hypothesized that higher hyperfeminine females as well as higher hypermasculine males would perceive the female condom more negatively and would be less likely to view the female condom as a viable form of protection in the future. It was also hypothesized that high hyperfeminine females and high hypermasculine males would not accept the female condom as an alternative form of protection. Implications for prevention interventions are discussed.     

基于时变参数Copula的ΔCoVaR度量技术

采用基于时变参数Copula的ΔCoVaR度量方法,以动态参数Copula模型描述金融变量间的相依结构、以GARCH类模型描述各金融变量的边际分布,通过构建的联合分布计算ΔCoVaR。利用此方法度量中国大陆与美国、香港的股票市场间的极端风险溢出。实证结果表明:通过此方法计算的ΔCoVaR能同时反映时变波动性与时变相依性,可更灵敏准确地度量危机时的极端风险溢出。     

商业银行利率风险管理技术综述

一、引言(一)现实背景从2000年9月21日起,我国利率市场化改革进入实质性阶段,预计三年内完成。利率市场化是一场系统性的金融革命,必将对经济金融领域的方方面面产生重要影响。商业银行应积极采取措施,应对利率市场化将带来的一系列风险。近几年,我国发行了大量的国债和金融债,     

金融风险度量VaR与CVaR方法的比较研究及应用

风险价值(VaR)是近年来受到国际金融界的广泛支持和认可的一种度量金融风险的工具。文章指出了风险价值(VaR)模型两个重大的缺陷,并对它和条件风险价值(CVaR)金融风险度量模型进行了详细的介绍和对比分析,给出了它们的共同点和CVaR在投资组合应用中的优势,结合中国金融市场的实际情况,指出CvaR在中国金融市场中应用应注意的问题,对其应用前景提出了新的思路。     

Dependence Estimation Over a Finite Bivariate Failure Time Region

This articleconcerns nonparametric estimation of association between bivariatefailure times. In the presence of independent right censoring,the support for failure time variates may be restricted and measuresof dependence over a finite failure time region may be of particularinterest. To this end, the reciprocal cross ratio function, weightedby the bivariate failure time density, is proposed as a summarymeasure of dependence over a failure time region. This `relativerisk' estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptoticallynormally distributed, with consistent bootstrap variance estimator.A finite-region version of Kendall's tau, which is suitable forcensored failure time data, is also proposed, and correspondingasymptotic distribution theory is noted. The accuracy of theseasymptotic approximations is studied in simulations and an illustrationis provided.