Implied Preference for Seismic Design Level and Earthquake Insurance

Seismic risk can be reduced by implementing newly developed seismic provisions in design codes. Furthermore, financial protection or enhanced utility and happiness for stakeholders could be gained through the purchase of earthquake insurance. If this is not so, there would be no market for such insurance. However, perceived benefit associated with insurance is not universally shared by stakeholders partly due to their diverse risk attitudes. This study investigates the implied seismic design preference with insurance options for decisionmakers of bounded rationality whose preferences could be adequately represented by the cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The investigation is focused on assessing the sensitivity of the implied seismic design preference with insurance options to model parameters of the CPT and to fair and unfair insurance arrangements. Numerical results suggest that human cognitive limitation and risk perception can affect the implied seismic design preference by the CPT significantly. The mandatory purchase of fair insurance will lead the implied seismic design preference to the optimum design level that is dictated by the minimum expected lifecycle cost rule. Unfair insurance decreases the expected gain as well as its associated variability, which is preferred by risk-averse decisionmakers. The obtained results of the implied preference for the combination of the seismic design level and insurance option suggest that property owners, financial institutions, and municipalities can take advantage of affordable insurance to establish successful seismic risk management strategies.     

Effects of Marriage and Children on Financial Risk Tolerance: A Synthesis of Family Development and Prospect Theory

Family development and prospect theory were used as a framework to predict variability in individuals' subjective financial risk tolerance within distinct family structures. Gender, age, and income were expected to interact with the main effects of family structure (marital status and children). Theory-generated hypotheses were examined in Study 1 (data from university housing respondents, n = 76) and Study 2 (the 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances, n = 4,305). One family structure main effect (child presence) was significant for investment risk tolerance in both studies. Family structure interactions (marital status × age and child × income) were significant for employment risk (Study 1), and child × age was significant for investment risk in Study 2.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

网上购物风险来源、类型及其影响因素研究

从风险来源的角度深入地研究了网上购物感知风险类型与其相对强度,对于企业从风险来源上降低和管理网上风险具有重要的指导意义.文章发现消费者在网上购物时,风险主要来源于产品本身、远距离交易、互联网这种交易模式和网站这四个方面.研究结果揭示了,当消费者在网上购物的时候,所感受到最强烈的三个风险分别是,来自于产品本身的产品绩效风险、来自于远距离交易的服务风险和来自于网站的来源风险.最后,研究还发现,消费者网上购物感知风险的强弱与消费者的年龄、网络购物频率之间存在较强的相关性,年龄越大,感知风险越强;网上购物频率越高,感知风险越低.     

风险社会的来临与历史决定论的消解

风险社会的来临改变了人类的生存境遇和生活体验，也必将导致人们观念和行为方式的改变。对现代风险社会进行认真的反思，并将与“人为的不确定性”相联系的风险概念引入，可以消解历史决定论的思维定势，也可以为马克思历史唯物主义的真实意蕴及当代性的彰显提供全新的解释维度和现实根据。     

供应链风险产生根源的理论分析

根据现有文献研究成果,结合实际调研分析,将供应链风险因素整理归纳为系统风险、供应风险、物流风险、信息风险、财务风险、管理风险、需求风险和环境风险。每种风险因素并非独立存在,而是相互影响、互为根源。其非线性叠加结果将会放大供应链整体风险水平。因此,必须认识到其存在的风险,只有在明确各种风险产生根源的基础上,才能恰当地制定、选择和采取有效措施,规避风险,确保供应链整体绩效稳步提高。     

论非理性因素在认识中的作用

非理性因素作为主体认识结构中的一个恒常性要素，对主体的认识活动具有非常重要的作用。情感、意志、需求等非理性因素对认识活动起着选择、调节控制和驱动的作用，直觉、灵感等非理性因素对认识的发展起突破和创造的作用。把握非理性因素在认识中的作用，有助于我们深入理解认识过程的内在机制。     

左思风力之成因初探

西晋诗人左思的诗风在西晋文坛上独树一帜，称之为“左思风力”，前人对此有较多地论述，然而就诗风形成的原因却缺乏深入地探究。本文试图从社会时代背景、家庭因素、性格特征三个方面对此加以分析，旨在能够更好地把握左思其人及其诗风。     

我国房地产证券化的特征及其作用

房地产证券化是我国房地产业与金融业发展的一种有机结合 ,它对优化配置与有效利用房地产和资金具有十分重要的意义。它是我国房地产业和金融业发展的客观要求 ,有利于社会资源的分配、稳定证券市场 ;它可刺激相关产业的发展 ,有利于改善投资环境、分散风险。房地产证券化具有扩大资本市场、增强不动产市场流动性、保持不动产市场稳定性和提高投资者效益性等主要特征。     

商业银行非财务信用风险分析

传统的信用风险评估方法仅仅从贷款企业角度来评价商业银行所面临的信用风险,而且评价企业信用风险时,也集中在贷款企业的财务风险评价上,忽略了银行本身存、贷款结构和风险状况对信用风险的影响,造成了评估主体缺位。作为对众多文献的补充,从贷款企业非财务风险因素、银行风险因素和宏观经济环境风险因素三个方面进行了信用风险因素分析,完善了商业银行信用风险评估指标体系。