Earthquake Risk Perception in Bucharest, Romania

The Municipality of Bucharest is one of the capitals with the highest seismic risk in the world. Bucharest is particularly vulnerable to seismic hazard due to: the high density of inhabitants, especially within the residential districts with blocks of flats; the old public utility fund; the out-of-date infrastructure; the numerous industrial parks that are undergoing a restructuring process, not to mention the inefficient organization of civil protection and poor education of the population regarding seismic risk. This research was designed to examine the attitudes and perceptions of people living with the risk of an earthquake hazard in Bucharest. We were interested in how attitudes and perceptions differ depending on gender, age, education, residential area and socioeconomic status, characteristics of seismic hazard, degree of risk exposure, degree of danger, and casualty awareness. At the same time, we compare the results of this study with those from a previous and similar enquiry in 1997. The statistical processing has indicated a significant difference between the declared perception of seismic risk and the independent variables of gender, age, level of education, level of attachment to the residential area, and degree to which the subjects consider they may be affected and could retrieve their losses. Due to the continuous decrease of their living standard, the most vulnerable is the aged population. The feelings toward the residential area is another factor of statistical significance for the population's seismic danger perception. A strong affective bond offers a feeling of safety and leads to the neglect and even total denial of the hazard. In the case of independent variables regarding the type of dwelling, its age, and property form, deviations of empiric values from the theoretical distribution are not relevant for the correlation searched for, which indicates that this issue goes beyond the above-mentioned criteria.     

Discount Rates in Risk Versus Money and Money Versus Money Tradeoffs

We use data from a survey of residents of five Italian cities conducted in late spring 2004 to estimate the discount rates implicit in (1) money versus future risk reductions and (2) money versus money tradeoffs. We find that the mean personal discount rate is 0.3-1.7% in (1) and 8.7% in (2). The latter is lower than the discount rates estimated in comparable situations in many recent studies, greater than market interest rates in Italy at the time, and exhibits modest variation with age and gender. The discount rate implicit in money versus risk tradeoffs is within the range of estimates from studies in the United States and Europe, and does not depend on observable individual characteristics. We use split samples to investigate whether a completely abstract risk reduction - one where the risk reduction delivery has been stripped of all specifics, so that respondents should focus on the risks without being distracted by details - results in WTP and discount figures comparable to those from an identified delivery mechanism (a medical test). We find that while WTP for an immediate risk reduction is 42-73% higher with the abstract risk reduction, the discount rate in the money versus risk tradeoffs and the variance of the error term in the WTP equation are the same across the two variants of the questionnaire.     

Perceived Risks from Radiation and Nuclear Testing Near Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan: A Comparison Between Physicians, Scientists, and the Public

Determining the difference in perception of risk between experts, or more educated professionals, and laypeople is important so that a potential hazard can be effectively communicated to the public. Many surveys have been conducted to better understand the difference between expert and public opinions, and often laypeople exhibit higher perceptions of risk to hazards in comparison to experts. This is especially true when health risk is due to radiation, nuclear power, and nuclear waste. This article focuses on one section of a risk perception survey given to two groups of individuals with a more specialized education (scientists and physicians) and laypeople (villagers) in the Semipalatinsk region of Kazakhstan. All of these groups live near the former Soviet nuclear test site. Originally, it was expected that the scientists and physicians would have similar perceptions of radiation risk, while the public perceptions would be higher, but this was not always the case. For example, when perceptions of risk pertain to the health impacts of nuclear testing or the dose-response nature of radiation exposure, the physicians tend to agree with the laypeople, not the scientists. The villagers are always the most risk-averse group, followed by the physicians and then the scientists. These differences are likely due to different frames of reference for each of the populations.     

Who Reaps the Benefits,Who Bears the Risks? Comparative Optimism,Comparative Utility,and Regulatory Preferences for Mobile Phone Technology

Although the issue of risk target (e.g., self, others, children) is widely acknowledged in risk perception research, its importance appears underappreciated. To date, most research has been satisfied with demonstrating comparative optimism, i.e., lower perceived risk for the self than others, and exploring its moderators, such as perceived controllability and personal exposure. Much less research has investigated how the issue of target may affect benefit perceptions or key outcomes such as stated preferences for hazard regulation. The current research investigated these issues using data from a public survey of attitudes toward mobile phone technology (N= 1,320). First, results demonstrated comparative optimism for this hazard, and also found moderating effects of both controllability and personal exposure. Second, there was evidence of comparative utility, i.e., users believed that the benefits from mobile phone technology are greater for the self than others. Third, and most important for policy, preferences for handset regulation were best predicted by perceptions of the risks to others but perceived benefits for the self. Results suggest a closer awareness of target can improve prediction of stated preferences for hazard regulation and that it would be profitable for future research to pay more attention to the issue of target for both risk and benefit perceptions.     

Consumer Selection of Food-Safety Information Sources

The aim of this study is to examine the preferences of consumers for different information sources when they have a question about food safety. On the basis of a nationally representative survey conducted in the Netherlands, five distinct consumer groups are identified that not only differ on the reported use of information sources but also regarding several personality characteristics and sociodemographic variables. The empirical results show that two-thirds of the consumers are selective in their use of information sources and prefer either institutional or social sources. So, multiple information-acquisition patterns exist among the general public. The study illustrates how these findings can help to develop effective risk communication strategies.     

A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach

This article analyzes possible terrorist attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a "dirty bomb") to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. We examined 36 attack scenarios and reduced them to two plausible or likely scenarios using qualitative judgments. For these two scenarios, we conducted a project risk analysis to understand the tasks terrorists need to perform to carry out the attacks and to determine the likelihood of the project's success. The consequences of a successful attack are described in terms of a radiological plume model and resulting human health and economic impacts. Initial findings suggest that the chances of a successful dirty bomb attack are about 10-40% and that high radiological doses are confined to a relatively small area, limiting health effects to tens or at most hundreds of latent cancers, even with a major release. However, the economic consequences from a shutdown of the harbors due to the contamination could result in significant losses in the tens of billions of dollars, including the decontamination costs and the indirect economic impacts due to the port shutdown. The implications for countering a dirty bomb attack, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack are discussed.     

An Empirical Test of Competing Theories of Hazard-Related Trust: The Case of GM Food

Few scholars doubt the importance of trust in explaining variation in public perception of technological risk. Relatively little, however, is known about the particular types of judgments that people use in granting or withholding trust. This article presents findings from an empirical study that explores several dimensions of trust relevant for citizens' judgments of scientists involved in the development of GM food. The relationship between particular dimensions of trust and perceptions of GM food risk is also explored, using structural equation modeling. Results suggest that trust judgments based on the perception of shared values are most important in relation to GM food risk, but that judgments about scientists' technical competence are also important.     

Exposure Assessment of TSEs from the Landspreading of Meat and Bone Meal

Recent changes in European legislation have meant that certain processed abattoir waste, which has been appropriately heat treated and ground to a specified particle size, can be spread on nonpasture agricultural land. This has opened the way for the potential landspreading of mammalian meat and bone meal (mMBM) derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption. This article reports on two separate case studies (Study 1 carried out in Great Britain (GB) and Study 2 carried out in Ireland) on the potential exposure to TSE infectivity following the spreading of abattoir waste (derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption) on nonpasture agricultural land. For Study 1, the average TSE infectivity on nonpasture agricultural land per year from sheep with scrapie was found to be higher (five orders of magnitude) than that estimated for BSE in cattle (3.9 x 10(-3) Ovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil compared to 3.3 x 10(-8) Bovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil). The mean estimate for BSE in sheep was 8.1 x 10(-6) Ovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil. The mean level of infectivity in mMBM was assessed to be 1.2 x 10(-5) and 2.36 x 10(-5) ID(50)/ton of mMBM for Study 1 and 2, respectively. For Study 2 the spreading of mMBM was estimated to result in infectivity on nonpasture land of 1.62 x 10(-8) Bovine Oral ID(50)/m(3). The mean simulated probability of infection per year per bovine animal was 1.11 x 10(-9). Given the low infectivity density and corresponding low risks to bovines the spreading of mMBM could be considered a viable alternative for the utilization of mMBM.     

基于战略地图和BSC的企业整合型战略控制系统研究

本文首先回顾战略控制的理论演进,界定企业整合型战略控制系统的基本目标与功能.紧着,本文提出基于平衡记分卡的企业战略诊断控制系统,旨在控制战略的实施;并且提出基于战略地图的企业战略交互控制系统,旨在把握战略的不确定性从而控制战略的内容.最后,本文融合上述两类系统组成一个企业整合型战略控制系统,为快速、高效地实施战略提供最全面的保障.     

基于非财务指标的企业财务危机模糊预警模型研究

针对企业财务危机预警难以做到真实、准确的问题,提出了基于非财务指标的企业财务危机模糊预警模型。应用多级模糊综合评判法对财务风险因素进行定量化评价,对定性的非财务指标采用模糊统计的方法,从定量与定性相结合的角度出发,构建了财务危机的模糊预警模型,并对其进行了检验,以期使预警结果更加真实、准确。