An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias for Hurricanes Among Gulf Coast Residents

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two‐year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow‐up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t‐tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross‐lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross‐lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables’ effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

充分利用网络技术全面提高会计控制质量

e7T中华财会网网络技术的发展对企业内部会计控制产生了深远的影响,文章从网络环境下内部会计控制呈现的新特点着手,分析了网络环境下内部会计控制系统所面临的风险,对存在的问题及其成因作了尝试性的探讨,提出了完善、加强内部会计控制的建议,以期达到提高网络环境下内部会计控制质量的目的。     

Independent attributes control chart for Markov-dependent processes

Statistical process monitoring (SPM) is a very efficient tool to maintain and to improve the quality of a product. In many industrial processes, end product has two or more attribute-type quality characteristics. Some of them are independent, but the observations are Markovian dependent. It is essential to develop a control chart for such situations. In this article, we develop an Independent Attributes Control Chart for Markov Dependent Processes based on error probabilities criterion under the assumption of one-step Markov dependency. Implementation of the chart is similar to that of Shewhart-type chart. Performance of the chart has been studied using probability of detecting shift criterion. A procedure to identify the attribute(s) responsible for out-of-control status of the process is given.     

An Extended Single‐index Model with Missing Response at Random

An extended single‐index model is considered when responses are missing at random. A three‐step estimation procedure is developed to define an estimator for the single‐index parameter vector by a joint estimating equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. An algorithm for computing this estimator is proposed. This algorithm only involves one‐dimensional nonparametric smoothers, thereby avoiding the data sparsity problem caused by high model dimensionality. Some simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators.     

You Catch More Flies With Honey: Sex Work,Violence, and Masculinity on the Streets

Violence among inner‐city men is a pressing social concern, and the central focus of much academic research. Many frame it as a phenomenon that certain men perpetuate—those who inhabit disadvantaged, impoverished communities—and argue it is linked to performances of “street” masculinity. In this article, I examine male street‐based sex workers’ willingness to become embroiled in violent exchanges. In a departure from theoretical predictions, my findings reveal these men expend considerable effort to remain nonviolent with others immersed in the sex trade, a decision based upon their desire for the acquisition of capital as well as their calculation of risks. In doing so, they construct and perform a nuanced version of masculinity, which I call pacifist masculinity. Few studies analyze peaceful and conciliatory interactions among men in these contexts, an absence that only serves to reify assumptions about rampant hostility and aggression. I draw on interviews with 19 men involved in street prostitution in Chicago in 2012. This article contributes to a clearer understanding of male–male violence in high‐risk environments, examines the prominent factors that inform decisions to assault others, and explores how such actions challenge hegemonic masculinity.     

The relationship between burnout and risk-taking in workplace decision-making and decision-making style

This study aimed to investigate what decision-making styles might be exhibited by employees who experience burnout. Using a Work Risk Inventory (WRI), developed for this study, which included generic workplace scenarios, it was also explored whether such employees take relatively more risky decisions. Risk was conceptualised as the adoption of decisions that threaten one’s reputation at work, job performance and job security. The mediating effect of the likelihood and seriousness of the consequences of the worst that could happen in each given scenario on the relationships between dimensions of burnout and risk-taking was also tested. A total of 262 employees in various occupations completed an online survey, including measures on burnout, decision-making styles and the WRI. As predicted, dimensions of burnout – exhaustion, cynicism and professional inefficacy – correlated significantly with avoidant decision-making and negatively with rational decision-making. The seriousness of the consequences of the worst-case scenario occurring mediated the relationship between professional inefficacy and risk-taking. In the context of identifying mechanisms by which burnout leads to risky decision-making, the findings suggest that employees’ sense of professional inefficacy determines their risky decision-making. The contribution to theory and implications for practice are discussed.     

Social Development Quartet: Emotion Socialization in the Context of Psychopathology and Risk

An introduction is provided to this Social Development Quartet in which the articles focus on parent emotion socialization in the context of psychopathology and risk. In two articles, the samples of children and/or adolescents have a psychiatric diagnosis [oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) or depressive disorder]. The other two articles feature samples in which children and families have experienced serious risks [exposure to inter‐parental violence (IPV) or maternal incarceration]. The articles in this Social Development Quartet extend our knowledge of the impact of parental emotion socialization practices to contexts in which children and parents experience higher than normative risks. The work reported in these articles builds upon research on emotion socialization in normative contexts, illustrating the buffering effects of supportive parenting as well as its limits.     

A divergence of opinion: how those involved in child and family social work are responding to the challenges of the Internet and social media

This discussion paper suggests that there is possibly a divergence of opinion taking place within the field of child and family social work and that the stated positions are influencing how practitioners identify and deal with risks and opportunities afforded by the Internet and social media. The suggested divergence is examined and the conclusion drawn is that what is taking place mirrors the fact that the introduction of any new technology inevitably brings with it division and debate. In seeking to understand the reaction to digital technology, consideration is given to a series of wider social discourses on childhood and risk, which includes the controversial notion that the profession is a harbinger of moral panic and that the management of risk has been broadened from child protection to child safety. The discussion paper concludes by calling for child and family social work practitioners to have a balanced debate that needs to be informed not only by current research but also by an open and honest discussion about personal use and an acknowledgement that there will be difficult moral and ethical questions to work through.     

Application of a QMRA Framework to Inform Selection of Drinking Water Interventions in the Developing Context

The aim of this study was to develop a modified quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) framework that could be applied as a decision support tool to choose between alternative drinking water interventions in the developing context. The impact of different household water treatment (HWT) interventions on the overall incidence of diarrheal disease and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was estimated, without relying on source water pathogen concentration as the starting point for the analysis. A framework was developed and a software tool constructed and then implemented for an illustrative case study for Nepal based on published scientific data. Coagulation combined with free chlorine disinfection provided the greatest estimated health gains in the short term; however, when long‐term compliance was incorporated into the calculations, the preferred intervention was porous ceramic filtration. The model demonstrates how the QMRA framework can be used to integrate evidence from different studies to inform management decisions, and in particular to prioritize the next best intervention with respect to estimated reduction in diarrheal incidence. This study only considered HWT interventions; it is recognized that a systematic consideration of sanitation, recreation, and drinking water pathways is important for effective management of waterborne transmission of pathogens, and the approach could be expanded to consider the broader water‐related context.