应急管理中缘何出现“信息悖论”现象?——基于中国国家治理视角的考察

信息是国家治理的重要依据。中国国家治理常规机制与运动式治理机制间的矛盾深刻地体现在了日常管理与应急管理的差异之中。当下的治理逻辑必然地要求日常管理采取科层制的非人格化管理模式，对直接上级的负责制形塑了信息沿纵向逐级向上衰减的常规信息传递机制。但在应急管理机制之下，上级应对突发事件的精准决策却有赖于对真实信息的掌握，而常规机制所带来的表象性避责策略则会削弱上级的决策准确性，由此这一张力进一步形塑了中国国家治理在应急管理机制中的“信息悖论”现象。      

Ethiopia's developmental state: A building stability framework assessment

Ethiopia has been lauded for its economic growth and progress in human development indicators. For some, that success is rooted in the developmental state approach advocated by the government. For others, the theory of the developmental state and the practice in Ethiopia were often at odds. Up until 2018, ideas that challenged the state and its approaches were not welcome, and politicians, academics and journalists were jailed for expressing alternative views. However, this appears to have changed, and in June 2018 the Deputy Prime Minister called for debate on the developmental state model. This article explores Ethiopia's developmental state model using the building stability framework, analysing its ability to establish fair power structures, foster inclusive economic growth, develop conflict‐resolution mechanisms, create effective and legitimate institutions, and enable a supportive regional environment. We find the developmental state was effective in a number of ways, but that this modality of governance appears to have passed its peak of securing advantage in Ethiopia. A shift from the developmental state to developmental democracy appears to be underway. Decision‐making and economic policies need to align with this change.     

无产阶级政权建设规律的初步探索

马克思从揭示人类社会发展规律的角度,通过对世界上第一次出现的无产阶级政权——巴黎公社的分析和总结,阐述了科学社会主义政权建设理论,提出了一些基本政治原则。他指出:建立一个真正的人民国家是无产阶级专政的基础和前提;以责任制廉价政府代替官僚等级制政府是其主要形式;以议行合一原则取代分权制衡原则的权力分配形式可以保证国家机构的政治效能。中国共产党在长期执政实践中积累了丰富的执政经验,党的十九大提出中国特色社会主义已进入新时代。在此契机下重新研读马克思经典著作,对认识和把握中国共产党执政新飞跃、实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化有着重大现实意义。     

Can the welfare state replace parents? Children's cognition in the United States and Great Britain

We compare family and parental effects on child verbal facility, verbal achievement and mathematics achievement in the United States and Great Britain. We study 3,438 5–13 year-old children from the 1994 NLSY Child-Mother Data Set and 1429 same-aged children from the National Child Development Study, also known as the British Child. Multivariate analyses suggest that the processes through which families invest in child cognition are similar across societies, with factors including low birth weight, child health, maternal cognition, family size and children's home environments being consequential. We conclude that parental investments are equally important across the two societies. The more developed welfare state in Great Britain does not notably compensate for parental investments in that society, although it may play a greater role when parental resources are absent or stretched thin.     

Revisiting the effectiveness of the employment‐oriented welfare state: Considering the quality of employment achievement

The purpose of this study was to examine the effectiveness of an employment‐oriented welfare state. While previous studies have focused on employment growth, this study considers the quality of employment, especially its mediating impact between public social expenditure and fiscal soundness. Three‐step mediated regression analysis was conducted on a data sample from 19 developed countries from 1991 to 2013. The results show that while public social expenditure negatively affects fiscal soundness, if it promotes total and part‐time employment, it can positively affect fiscal soundness. However, when the incidence of involuntary part‐time employment is high, public social expenditure and its impact on employment performance no longer guarantee fiscal soundness. This study addresses the importance of promoting not only employment growth but also employment quality to secure fiscal soundness.     

元代玉山雅集诗序探微

以顾瑛为核心的玉山草堂雅集是元代最具代表性的文人雅集，学界虽不乏相关研究成果，但对相关诗序文献均未给予重视。文中从诗序这一独特视角对顾瑛玉山雅集进行观照，以拓展、加深对其认知：以诗序为据，梳理历次玉山雅集活动系年、场所、人员及主要活动内容；玉山雅集诸方面超越前代，分韵赋诗是玉山雅集文学活动的核心形制；玉山雅集诗序是折射元末文人心态及时代变化的一面镜子。     

Applications of quadrivariate exponential distribution to a three-unit warm standby system with dependent structure

Two-unit warm standby systems have been elaborately dealt within the literature. However, the study of standby systems with more than two units, though very relevant in state-of-the-art practical situations, has received little attention because of mathematical intricacies involved in analyzing them. Also, such systems have been studied assuming: (i) the lifetime or repair time of the units to be exponential, or (ii) the lifetime and repair time to be independent. The present contribution is an improvement in the state-of-the-art in the sense that three-unit warm standby system with dependent structure is shown to be capable of comprehensive analysis.     

The Political Economy of Social Insurance: Towards a Fiscal‐Centred Framework

This article draws attention to social insurance (SI) as a revenue raising institution, and explores the potential merits of drawing on new fiscal sociology for studying the development of SI systems. This is done by revisiting previous research conducted in Germany, the USA, Finland and Israel and by offering a new reading of their findings. The reviewed cases support two interlocking claims drawn from new fiscal sociology to the study of SI. The first is that state actors may perceive SI as an extraction instrument and employ it to advance fiscal and/or economic interests other than covering the costs of SI schemes. The second is that the design and management of contribution policies for such purposes may have substantial ramifications for the development of SI schemes. In addition, while current understandings tend to associate fiscal concerns with welfare state retrenchment, this article shows that they can also play a major role in driving welfare state expansion.     

Emergency Law in China: Its Formation,Present State and Future

中国非常法律的形成, 是为了应对紧急事件。这类法律由法律法规、应急预案和 军事法规等组成, 规定了战争状态、紧急状态和应急状态三种非常状态, 致力于建构 专业化大分工基础上的综合统一体制。在实践中, 应急预案取代了法律法规, 成为紧 急事件治理的基本规范依据; 政府和武装力量处于主导地位。中国非常法律基于必要 而形成, 其适用具有临时性, 主要内容具有授权性和预防性。非常法律未来发展的主 要目标是: 与中国特色社会主义法律体系衔接, 制定紧急状态下的基本法, 完善非常 法律的各项具体机制。

关键词: 非常状态 综合治理 执行主导 预防性法律

China’s emergency laws have emerged as a result of dealing with crises. They comprise laws and regulations, emergency plans, and military regulations, and define three exceptional or emergency states: war, emergency and emergency response, with the aim of constructing a comprehensive integrated system based on the specialized division of labor. In practice, however, emergency plans take the place of laws and regulations and provide the fundamental normative basis for tackling emergencies, with government and the military playing the dominant role. Developing out of necessity and possessing temporary applicability, China’s emergency laws are characterized by authorization and prevention. Integrating emergency law with the socialist legal system with Chinese characteristics, formulating basic law for emergency situations and improving the specific mechanisms of emergency law should be regarded as major steps in its future development.     

Neo‐liberalism by Decay? The Evolution of the Czech Welfare State

In this article we analyse the evolution of the Czech welfare state and we examine the factors explaining its path. We show that although the Czech welfare regime exhibits a 'mixed profile' that includes conservative and universalist elements, it is increasingly moving in a more liberal, residualist direction – not because of conscious steps but rather through decay. Governments have often zig-zagged in their policies and resorted to symbolic reforms at times rather than implementing ideologically based, consistent policies. We argue that historical and sociological institutionalism combined with a social-capital approach can explain this decay better than the more common arguments about economic pressures combined with ideological hegemony or the protest-avoidance strategy. In particular, the social capital approach adds to our institutional framework by explaining why cutbacks in welfare programmes have not met much opposition, even though public opinion surveys consistently show support for more generous welfare policies, and why policies have deviated so much from political rhetoric.