论风险工程观

传统工程观更多地关注“造物”的目标，却忽略了“造物”的过程，对工程主体也持不闻不问的态度，这种结果是由“投资——收益”思维模式和工具理性的思想观念导致的。在风险社会理论的启示下，风险工程观思想的提出，表明现代工程风险研究要超越单纯以经济利益为标准的传统模式，加强对工程过程中“人”的价值的关注，并对技术在工程中的应用持谨慎态度。     

An Evidential Reasoning‐Based CREAM to Human Reliability Analysis in Maritime Accident Process

This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario‐ and barrier‐based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning‐based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.     

Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel‐Induced Pipeline Damage

Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel‐induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step‐by‐step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN‐based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel‐induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause‐effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment.     

Staying safe: strategies for qualitative child abuse researchers

Undertaking interview‐based research with victim/survivors of child abuse can be difficult and challenging for researchers. Much has been written about the impact of research on participants, but researcher effects are less explored. This paper reviews the literature on sensitive interview‐based research and child abuse research. The theoretical underpinnings of researcher trauma are outlined and challenges identified and related to child abuse research using researcher reflections from the authors' interview‐based research with children who have been abused and young mothers who were sexually abused in childhood. Strategies and recommendations are developed to minimise child abuse researcher trauma. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Multifactorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Foodborne Pathogens

We develop a prioritization framework for foodborne risks that considers public health impact as well as three other factors (market impact, consumer risk acceptance and perception, and social sensitivity). Canadian case studies are presented for six pathogen‐food combinations: Campylobacter spp. in chicken; Salmonella spp. in chicken and spinach; Escherichia coli O157 in spinach and beef; and Listeria monocytogenes in ready‐to‐eat meats. Public health impact is measured by disability‐adjusted life years and the cost of illness. Market impact is quantified by the economic importance of the domestic market. Likert‐type scales are used to capture consumer perception and acceptance of risk and social sensitivity to impacts on vulnerable consumer groups and industries. Risk ranking is facilitated through the development of a knowledge database presented in the format of info cards and the use of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to aggregate the four factors. Three scenarios representing different stakeholders illustrate the use of MCDA to arrive at rankings of pathogen‐food combinations that reflect different criteria weights. The framework provides a flexible instrument to support policymakers in complex risk prioritization decision making when different stakeholder groups are involved and when multiple pathogen‐food combinations are compared.     

Human Error Contribution in Collision and Grounding of Oil Tankers

The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the “Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment” of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the “International Safety Management Code” are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.     

安全优化钻井实时监控智能系统模型及应用

将钻井工程信息管理、钻井参数实时采集和智能化决策支持技术集成为一体，设计并实现一个安全优化钻井实时监控智能计算机系统。系统的知识模型由领域层、推理层和任务层组成；知识的表示应用了本体论中的科学方法，建立基于本体的安全优化钻井领域知识构架，对钻井数据、信息、知识进行系统的分析、归纳，实现安全优化钻井知识整合。系统可用于钻井设计、施工、完钻总结阶段的钻井异常问题的检测、识别、预测、诊断、预防和处理，实现安全优化钻井的目标。     

Therapeutic Process as a Means to Navigate Impasse? Reflections on a Complex Case of Crosscultural Adolescent Family Therapy

This article explores the process of family therapy with a Turkish‐speaking single‐parent family with four children in which suicidal behaviour and family violence have become the norm. The following example describes a pivotal experience early within my career as a family therapist. The universality of first, being a beginner family therapist, and second, receiving a referral of a daunting, difficult case has led me to share my experience here. Central to this article is the focus on therapeutic process as a means to navigate beyond impasse. It is my hope that those who read this article will consider taking the risk to prioritise the therapeutic relationship, even when anxiety about ‘doing something’ to fix the problems is high.     

A Tale of Two Cultures: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives in the Care of Older Adults with Combined Visual and Medical Disabilities

A comparison of the vision rehabilitation and medical rehabilitation systems suggests that, despite the distinct professional cultures that have evolved around them over the past 50 years, their commonalities are more notable than their differences. The older adult, who frequently develops simultaneous visual and medical disabilities, demands a greater degree of cooperation between these systems, than that required for the younger client who was the primary focus of the rehabilitation paradigm in the years following World War II. This article includes guidelines for practitioners that should help them achieve a more comprehensive approach to their elderly visually impaired clients.     

高等学校合校浪潮中工程管理专业的去向在哪里

在最近全国性的高校合校浪潮中，工程管理这一交叉性很强的专业的去向问题引起了专 家及学者的思考与讨论，寻求这一问题解决途径的重要性和紧迫性不而言喻。本文通过作者不久前作 的一个国际社会调查，结合英美两国高校中工程管理专业设置的情况，说明如何解决这一问题，供决 策者参考。