中国货币政策的利率规则——基于金融状况指数的分析

为检验中国中央银行是否已将金融市场状况纳入货币政策的框架,采用HTVPVAR模型的脉冲响应构建中国金融市场状况指数,检验结果显示:以金融市场状况指数为转换变量的STR模型形式的利率规则能较好地拟合实际数据,政策利率对通货膨胀缺口的变动存在非线性调整,且金融市场的景气（不景气）将增强（减弱）货币政策对通货膨胀缺口的反应程度。     

Analysis of some ruin-related quantities in a Markov-modulated risk model

In this paper, we study the joint Laplace transform and probability generating function of some random quantities that occur in each environment state by the time of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk process. These quantities include the duration spent in each state, the number of claims and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time of ruin. Explicit formulae for the joint transforms, given the initial surplus, and the initial and terminal environment states, are expressed in terms of a matrix version of the scale function. Moments and covariances of these ruin-related quantities are obtained and numerical illustrations are presented. The joint transform of the duration spent in each state, the number of claims, and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time the surplus attains a certain level are also investigated.     

大型音乐舞蹈史诗《中国革命之歌》的艺术处理

大型音乐舞蹈史诗《中国革命之歌》在进行创作时既要确保艺术创作真实反映历史事实,又要防止与《东方红》重复,需要创作人员精心设计框架,选择材料进行加工改编,具有一定的难度。创作者和表演者通过艺术框架的搭建、艺术素材的加工、艺术演出的处理,使大型音乐舞蹈史诗《中国革命之歌》既具有政治内容又具有极高的艺术美。     

稳压电源的自适应去火弧技术

针对传统基于继电器控制的稳压电源在带负载工作时,档位切换常常伴随火弧现象的问题,设计了一种可广泛 应用于此类稳压电源上的自适应去火弧技术：使用光耦和多级运放完成对零点和电压电流的采样;基于单片机的10量, 实现对继电器的驱动和控制;基于RCC自激震荡原理为系统提供稳定电源;设计了稳压器的完整软件系统程序,并在软 件中应用自适应去火弧算法。实验结果表明：自适应去火弧技术,能够有效地规避火弧现象的产生,并能够根据条件作 出调整。采用自适应去火弧技术的稳压系统达到了设计目标,延长了系统工作寿命。     

Estimation of Population Variance from Multi-ranker Ranked Set Sampling Designs

In this article, we develop an estimator for a population variance based on a multi-ranker ranked set sampling design. In a multi-ranker design, the units are ranked by more than one ranker allowing ties whenever the confidence level of the rankers is low. The ranking information of all rankers is then combined in a meaningful way to create a single measure. This measure is used to construct the sampling design and a new estimator for the population variance. The article investigates the bias and relative efficiency of the proposed variance estimator. It is shown that the new estimator performs as good as or better than its competitors in the literature.     

Investigating impacts of complex sampling on latent growth curve modelling

We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling.     

再议规模经营中的粮食安全问题:争议回应与政策启示

在既定资源约束下实现粮食产出最大化是粮食生产安全的核心。而今旨在提升粮食竞争力的农业规模经营虽得到政府力推,却并非保障国家粮食安全的充分条件。在梳理规模经营与粮食安全保障相关争论的基础上,结合调研资料,依次回应了规模经营后农地是否大概率用于种粮、规模经营是否可持续以及规模经营能否保障粮食产量三个焦点问题。研究发现,与小农经营相比,规模经营与种植结构“非粮化”虽无必然联系,却存在规模经济不显著及单产提升乏力等问题。对此,一方面应强化小农扶持力度,巩固维系小农群体的粮食保障功能;另一方面应调整规模经营主体的政策干预结构,除非在规模经济与土地产出率不一致的情形下,应最大化避免对规模经营主体的直接干预,降低政策的扭曲效应,推动规模经济实现。     

闻一多著作的版本演变和全集成型

闻一多作为中国现代诗人和现代学者,在现代文化史上留下了丰富的文本文献,其著作的出版经过了一个漫长的过程,其版本的演变比较复杂,全集的出版经历了从旧版到新版的演变。《闻一多全集》的编印具有多方面的价值,不仅有过鲜明的政治意义,尤其具有丰富的文化意义,即在中国现代文学史和现代学术史以及中国现代知识分子的精神变迁史方面的"标本"意义。