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31.
将Bonus—MalLis模型应用到银行贷款业务,通过调整银行的Bonus-MalLis贷款利率来减少贷款欺诈行为。主要是建立借款人的银行个人信用体系,通过借款人上阶段的还款利率和表现决定其下阶段还款利率,这样就提供了一种与完全审计机制不同的奖惩机制。在一些简单假设下可证明Bonus—Malus利率将会消除所有欺诈行为,而非仅仅减少欺诈行为。  相似文献   
32.
Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.  相似文献   
33.
Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n− α / (2 α +1) is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n −4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.  相似文献   
34.
In this paper, we present a general formulation of an algorithm, the adaptive independent chain (AIC), that was introduced in a special context in Gåsemyr et al . [ Methodol. Comput. Appl. Probab. 3 (2001)]. The algorithm aims at producing samples from a specific target distribution Π, and is an adaptive, non-Markovian version of the Metropolis–Hastings independent chain. A certain parametric class of possible proposal distributions is fixed, and the parameters of the proposal distribution are updated periodically on the basis of the recent history of the chain, thereby obtaining proposals that get ever closer to Π. We show that under certain conditions, the algorithm produces an exact sample from Π in a finite number of iterations, and hence that it converges to Π. We also present another adaptive algorithm, the componentwise adaptive independent chain (CAIC), which may be an alternative in particular in high dimensions. The CAIC may be regarded as an adaptive approximation to the Gibbs sampler updating parametric approximations to the conditionals of Π.  相似文献   
35.
The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example.  相似文献   
36.
城乡结合部农村信用社有其特殊的地缘优势,应抓住目前改革机遇,努力提高职工素质、改善办公条件、开发新产品新业务,并建立自己严格的职工考核体系。同时中国人民银行也应加大对农村信用社的扶持力度,共同促进农村信用社的发展。  相似文献   
37.
Summary.  To help to design vaccines for acquired immune deficiency syndrome that protect broadly against many genetic variants of the human immunodeficiency virus, the mutation rates at 118 positions in HIV amino-acid sequences of subtype C versus those of subtype B were compared. The false discovery rate (FDR) multiple-comparisons procedure can be used to determine statistical significance. When the test statistics have discrete distributions, the FDR procedure can be made more powerful by a simple modification. The paper develops a modified FDR procedure for discrete data and applies it to the human immunodeficiency virus data. The new procedure detects 15 positions with significantly different mutation rates compared with 11 that are detected by the original FDR method. Simulations delineate conditions under which the modified FDR procedure confers large gains in power over the original technique. In general FDR adjustment methods can be improved for discrete data by incorporating the modification proposed.  相似文献   
38.
要本文在分析台湾实行金融改革动因的基础上,概述了台湾金融改革的内容,评述了台湾实行金融自由化的目的-建立区域金融中心的构想,并就这一改革给大陆带来的启示作出了思考。  相似文献   
39.
广义汇率目标区制包括介于浮动汇率制与固定汇率制之间的所有的汇率安排,中央银行外汇市场干预的不同,决定了汇率目标区制中类型的不同。在中央银行强有力的干预下,中心汇率和目标区公开是最具吸引力的一种目标区制,其根本特性就在于其汇率形成机制的内在稳定性,从而也是构建未来人民币汇率目标区制的较好选择。  相似文献   
40.
现有OBS长度自适应组装算法的突发数据长度门限的选择虽然随着业务流的变化而变化,克服了固定长度门限算法输出的突发数据的突发性,但仍然没有考虑业务流的自相似特性,因此不能有效降低输出突发数据的自相似程度和分组阻塞率。针对这一问题,该文提出了一种改进的OBS长度自适应门限组装算法,能根据到达的网络业务流的自相似特性自适应地调整长度门限值。仿真结果表明:在相同的调度算法下,更能降低业务流的自相似性,分组阻塞率降低一个数量级。  相似文献   
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