Ranking Nuclear and Radiological Terrorism Scenarios: The Italian Case

A quantitative criterion for ranking the different scenarios of nuclear and radiological terrorism has been developed. The aim of the model is not to predict terroristic events but only to indicate which scenario has the higher utility from the point of view of a terroristic organization in terms of balance between factors favoring and discouraging the attack, respectively. All these factors were quantified according to a scoring system that takes into account the logarithmic relationship between perceptions and stimuli. The criterion was applied to several scenarios, each of which was modeled in a simple but not trivial way in order to estimate the expected damage in terms of probable life losses from both radiative and nonradiative effects. The outcome from the ranking method indicates that the attractive scenario appears to be the detonation of a low yield improvised nuclear device in the metropolitan area of a major city.     

核安保事件应急决策的情景库构建与情景匹配研究

纵观国际社会形势,核扩散风险、核恐怖主义威胁对全球核电发展带来诸多挑战,加强核安保事件应急决策研究至关重要。根据突发事件的情景—应对的相关理论,文章从内因、外因以及应急决策三个维度对核安保事件进行情景切分和关键因素提取,提出了核安保事件情景库的结构和构建过程,并提出了核安保事件案例库索引和基于最近相邻法的核安保事件情景相似度计算方法对核安保事件与情景库进行情景匹配。文章运用的情景库和情景匹配方法可以简练、准确地表达核安保事件应急决策的信息和实现快速的情景匹配,可为核安保事件的应急决策提供重要的支持。     

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research

In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the potential for confusion is high. We note that in the early stages of handling a crisis, the uncertainties involved may be deep, i.e., difficult or impossible to quantify in the time available. In such circumstance, we suggest the idea of presenting multiple scenarios.     

Fitting Hierarchical Holographic Modeling into the Theory of Scenario Structuring and a Resulting Refinement to the Quantitative Definition of Risk

A point of view is suggested from which the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) method can be seen as one more method within the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS), which is that part of Quantitative Risk Assessment having to do with the task of identifying the set of risk scenarios. Seen in this way, HHM brings strongly to our attention the fact that different methods within TSS can result in different sets of risk scenarios for the same underlying problem. Although this is not a problem practically, it is a bit awkward conceptually from the standpoint of the "set of triplets" definition of risk, in which the scenario set is part of the definition. Accordingly, the present article suggests a refinement to the set of triplets definition, which removes the specific set of scenarios, found by any of the TSS methods, from the definition of risk and casts it, instead, as an approximation to the "true" set of scenarios that is native to the problem at hand and not affected by the TSS method used.     

基于能源消耗的综合运输结构优化

为充分考虑综合运输结构优化的过程中能源消耗的因素,在运用完全分解模型对影响综合运输能耗的因素进行因子贡献率分析、利用SPSS软件对GDP和运输周转量进行回归分析的基础上,采用情景分析法,通过设定不同的综合运输结构,构建了基于能源消耗的综合运输结构优化模型;以陕西省为研究对象对构建的模型进行了验证,验证了模型的可操作性和正确性,可为陕西省综合运输的发展方向提供借鉴。     

江苏省工业碳足迹研究及情景模拟

工业碳足迹是一个复杂的动态的系统, 针对于江苏省工业碳足迹的现状, 利用系统动力学原理, 借助Vensim PLE软件, 建立了江苏省工业碳足迹系统, 把系统分为人口、资源、环境、能源4个子系统, 特别考虑到人均GDP对教育的影响, 通过教育影响技术, 最终影响CO2 排放量。通过历史数据对江苏省工业碳足迹进行仿真, 并从不同经济结构、技术条件、新能源发展情况等角度设置了4种不同的情景, 与原始情景进行比较, 对2005-2020年的工业碳足迹进行分析。从情景模拟结果可以看出:要减少江苏省工业碳足迹, 必须加大力度开发新能源, 调整能源结构, 而技术进步对于工业碳足迹的减少, 效果没有前两者显著。     

中国石油脆弱性的测算及其情景分析

选取构建了影响中国石油脆弱性的7个主要指标,运用主成分分析方法,对1998—2008年中国石油脆弱性进行了综合测算。结果表明：近年来中国石油脆弱性总体不断加深。在得出各指标对中国石油脆弱性的敏感性系数后,基于情景分析,模拟了2009—2015年中国石油脆弱性。为能源安全政策制定者提供了一定的参考和依据。     

非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系研究

非常规突发事件情景构建和推演是实现“情景-应对”型应急管理模式的关键问题之一。分析突发事件应急管理特点及研究现状基础上,构建了非常规突发事件情景构建与推演方法体系,具体包括关键要素及其作用机理提取与表示、多源信息融合下的应急情景链构建、面向“情景-应对”的应急情景推演和情景推演结果评判与应对实效评估四个部分。该方法体系及划分有助于合理展开“情景-应对”型应急管理关键问题的研究,可以促进“情景-应对”型应急管理模式在应急管理实践中的实现,为政府部门制定应急决策提供一定的决策支持     

商业银行利率风险管理技术综述

一、引言(一)现实背景从2000年9月21日起,我国利率市场化改革进入实质性阶段,预计三年内完成。利率市场化是一场系统性的金融革命,必将对经济金融领域的方方面面产生重要影响。商业银行应积极采取措施,应对利率市场化将带来的一系列风险。近几年,我国发行了大量的国债和金融债,     

Alternative Methods for Computing the Sensitivity of Complex Surveillance Systems

Stochastic scenario trees are a new and popular method by which surveillance systems can be analyzed to demonstrate freedom from pests and disease. For multiple component systems—such as a combination of a serological survey and systematically collected observations—it can be difficult to represent the complete system in a tree because many branches are required to represent complex conditional relationships. Here we show that many of the branches of some scenario trees have identical outcomes and are therefore redundant. We demonstrate how to prune branches and derive compact representations of scenario trees using matrix algebra and Bayesian belief networks. The Bayesian network representation is particularly useful for calculation and exposition. It therefore provides a firm basis for arguing disease freedom in international forums.