关中平原人地关系地域系统SD模型及仿真

以渭河流域关中平原为例,在深入分析系统内外因素及其反馈关系的基础上,运用系统动力学（SD）构建关中平原人地关系地域系统模型,以模型为基础,建立了关中平原发展的三种可能情景,即理想条件下、资源约束下、资源环境约束下。采用Vensim PLE软件进行系统仿真模拟,获取三种情景下系统的仿真结果。对模拟结果分析显示：水资源和环境污染对未来关中平原发展具有重大而深远的影响,盲目的追求经济发展将使资源和污染更为恶化,必须将水安全和生态环境的保护作为建设中的重点。仿真的结果对关中地区未来发展战略制定提供了理论和现实依据。     

应急储备库选址与资源配置随机规划模型研究

研究在突发事件多发区域进行应急储备库的选址与资源配置规划问题.假定了若干随机的突发事件情景,每种情景下物资需求量与运输时间不确定,结合情景分析法,建立了一定应急限制期条件下的两阶段随机规划模型,并设计了混合遗传算法对模型进行求解.研究结果不仅找到了最优的选址与资源配置方案,而且发现牺牲需求满足率与应急限制期带来的成本降低是不经济的.     

突发危机事件网络舆情治理的多情景演化博弈分析

互联网时代，网络媒体已经成为谣言传播的重要载体，严重威胁到我国的网络空间安全和社会和谐稳定，因此加强和创新对网络媒体的监管，妥善治理突发危机事件网络舆情是各级政府面临的重大挑战。针对突发危机事件网络舆情治理的研究，本文运用演化博弈理论构建了网络媒体与地方政府双方演化博弈模型，在引入中央政府惩罚机制基础上，对比分析了网络媒体与地方政府双方行为策略选择的演化稳定均衡，同时采取多案例进行实证研究，并通过数值仿真分析对模型进行多情景推演模拟。研究结果表明：突发危机事件网络舆情传播热度与网络媒体和地方政府双方的策略选择有着直接关系；若地方政府承受突发危机事件网络舆情恶性演化造成的经济损失与信誉损失持续增大，双方演化系统都会出现周期性波动现象；引入中央政府惩罚机制后，其惩罚力度若高于网络媒体消极应对网络舆情所受到的惩罚和地方政府的监管投入成本时，最终系统会演化至良性状态，研究结论为政府部门在面对突发危机事件网络舆情治理方面提供了新思路。     

Integrating Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Scenarios to Improve Resilience of Cyber‐Physical‐Social Networks

The future of energy mobility involves networks of users, operators, organizations, vehicles, charging stations, communications, materials, transportation corridors, points of service, and so on. The integration of smart grids with plug‐in electric vehicle technologies has societal and commercial advantages that include improving grid stability, minimizing dependence on nonrenewable fuels, reducing vehicle emissions, and reducing the cost of electric vehicle ownership. However, ineffective or delayed participation of particular groups of stakeholders could disrupt industry plans and delay the desired outcomes. This article develops a framework to address enterprise resilience for two modes of disruptions—the first being the influence of scenarios on priorities and the second being the influence of multiple groups of stakeholders on priorities. The innovation of this study is to obtain the advantages of integrating two recent approaches: scenario‐based preferences modeling and stakeholder mapping. Public agencies, grid operators, plug‐in electric vehicle owners, and vehicle manufacturers are the four groups of stakeholders that are considered in this framework, along with the influence of four scenarios on priorities.     

‘We Thought the World Was Makeable’: Scenario Planning and Postcolonial Fiction

Abstract

This essay uses Indra Sinha's 2007 novel, Animal's People, as a critical lens to analyse the discourse of scenario planning. I argue that scenario planning, a strategy of speculation about possible futures, elides history—specifically the intertwined processes of colonialism and capitalism—in favour of the idea of globalization as an inexorable unfolding of the world as a complex system. Following a brief genealogy of the discourse of scenario planning that highlights its Cold War origins, and ongoing function in imagining, and helping to secure, the future of global capitalism, I offer as counterpoint a postcolonial reading of Animal's People. A fictional exploration of the aftermath of the 1984 Union Carbide factory gas leak in Bhopal, India, the novel contests (thematically and formally) the hegemonic temporality of globalization that informs scenario planning and the model of risk management it inspires.     

Hiring a Gay Man,Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion

We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.     

城市客运交通能源需求与环境排放研究——以北京为例

基于LEAP模型框架构建北京市城市客运交通-能源-环境模型,计算得到北京市2020年在不同政策情景下的能源需求趋势和常规大气污染气体及温室气体的环境排放变化趋势。研究认为:在北京市对城市客运需求量逐渐增加的前提下,大力发展公共交通尤其是轨道交通以及限制私家车的上升趋势势在必行;同时,改善终端利用层次的能源结构对于降低能源需求以及减缓大气污染压力具有重要作用。     

Economic Impact of Rural to Urban Labor Migration in China from 1991 to 2011

This paper quantitatively explores the size of rural labor force transfer and the specified flow nonagricultural industries, and the corresponding contribution of the increase of labor force utilization and productivity to economic growth from 1991 to 2011. The transfer size increased from 86.73 million people in 1990 to more than 250 million people in 2011. In 2011, 53.7% of the transfer labor worked in second industry, the others in third industry. By using growth accounting, this paper decomposes GDP growth into three growth components: working age population, labor force productivity and labor force utilization. Firstly, the paper calculated the real average annual growth rate of these three factor from 1991 to 2011 and their contributions to GDP growth. Then we calculated the changes of three factors and GDP'growth rates under the scenario without rural labor transfer, and finally got the contribution of rural labor transfer to GDP growth by comparing the difference between real and assumption scenario. The resuit shows that from 1991 to 2011, the real average annual growth rate of three factors were 1.3%, 9.3% and-0.3%, and their contribution the GDP growth was 12.2%, 90.2% and-2.4%separately. Under the scenario without rural labor transfer, the average annual growth rates of labor force productivity and labor force utilization would reduce to 8.9% and-1.4%, while the GDP average annual growth rate would reduce from 10.3% to 8.8%. The profound analysis in details shows that the transfer promoted labor force utilization by 30.7%and productivity by 23.9% annually on average, therefore promoting GDP by 63.7%, and GDP growth rate by 1.6% annually on average. On the one hand, through the utilizing of the ‘surplus rural labor force', the transfer promoted the labor force utilization, then made the potential population dividend brought by the increase of working age population size practical; on the other hand, through promoting of labor force industry structure, the transfer promoted the total productivity. The transfer has been and will be an important driving force of economic growth in China.     

Scenario aggregation in single-resource production planning models with uncertain demand

In this paper we present an application of the scenario aggregation approach proposed by Rockafellar and Wets to a simple standard multi-product multi-period production planning problem with uncertain demand and setup cost modelled by logical zero-one variables. The uncertainty in demand is expressed by a number of demand scenarios. As compared with more traditional approaches that require distributional assumptions and/or estimates of parameters from historical demand data, the scenario approach offers greater flexibility and makes it possible to take subjective information into account. The scenario aggregation principle and the corresponding progressive hedging algorithm offer a theoretically sound basis for generating consistent solutions for production planning models with uncertain demand. Since the production planning problem studied in this paper is of mixed-integer type the original scenario aggregation approach cannot be applied directly. However, since the integer variables in the production planning model are indirectly coupled to the continuous production decisions an alternative method in which only the production quantities are used to couple the different realizations can be used. This paper is a first attempt to perform this form of coupling. We illustrate the ideas on a small example and use this example to demonstrate how the solution can be evaluated in terms of flexibility measures.     

中部地区低碳经济发展潜力比较研究

作为我国重要的能源原材料基地,中部地区发展低碳经济潜力巨大。鉴于中部6省发展的基础、环境、面临的主要问题等均不相同,在综合考虑各省低碳经济发展趋势及相关政策、规划、战略部署的基础上,利用情景分析法系统分析了基准情景、节能情景和低碳情景下的中部各省低碳经济发展潜力,并针对中部地区低碳经济发展潜力提出了相应的建议。分析结果表明：在低碳情景下,中部地区2020年单位国内生产总值（GDP）CO2排放比2005年下降56．72％,远远超过了国家制定的2020年单位国内生产总值（GDP）C02排放比2005年下降40％～45％的目标;到2030年,碳排放总量为337312．03吨,仅为2010年的1．26倍。低碳情景是推进节能减排和发展方式转型、实现经济发展与资源环境保护双赢最有力的推手。