Assessing the Radiological Impact of Radiation Exposure Devices

Radiation exposure devices (REDs) are radiological weapons obtained by concealing a strong gamma‐emitting source in a place frequented by public to cause radiation injuries following the absorption of elevated radiation doses. The present work aims to assess the radiological impact of an RED by simulating its effects in both dynamical and static conditions of the covertly exposed population, with individual position and motion obtained through a Monte Carlo approach. The results indicate that in small enclosures the motion of people amplify the effects of radiation exposure with respect to the static case because it turns out in a larger number of individuals receiving doses above the threshold for the onset of deterministic effects. This behavior is mitigated in medium and large enclosures due to dose spreading over trajectories moving far away from the critical region close to the RED. The scaling laws obtained with a simple circular geometry were successfully applied to a more complex geometry like that of a stadium. The potentially large number of victims and the possibility to reiterate the attack raise the question of early detection. This can be achieved either by radiation survey or by indirectly inferring the presence of a strong radioactive source following the triage of patients with radiation sickness symptoms collected by the same hospital. In the former case careful design and operation of aerial or in situ monitoring is needed, while in the latter specific training should be given to healthcare personnel aimed to improve their discrimination and cooperation capabilities.     

修辞问句的认知机制

借助Panther＆Thornburg的言语行为转喻理论，揭示修辞问句所实施的两种言语行为提问和陈述之间的关系。通过建立修辞问句言语行为实施的场景模型，发现了提问和陈述两种行为问具有转喻关系，即提问可以通过突显修辞问句场景模型内的任一部分来转喻陈述。同时，这种转喻关系解释了为什么修辞问句的听话人能快速地解读说话人的交际意图。     

钢铁行业节能降耗对全社会用电量的影响

采用比较研究法和灰色关联分析法,找出钢铁行业节能潜力的主要影响因子,建立解释吨钢电耗的计量模型,并采用情景分析法预测钢铁行业未来的耗电情况。在预测钢铁行业产量的基础上,计算钢铁行业节能降耗对全社会用电量的影响,指出如能及时采取加大科技投入力度、增加钢铁行业固定资产投资和稳步提高工业电价等措施,预计2020年钢铁行业可实现节电1 430亿度,约占当年全社会用电量的1.88%。     

‘We Thought the World Was Makeable’: Scenario Planning and Postcolonial Fiction

Abstract

This essay uses Indra Sinha's 2007 novel, Animal's People, as a critical lens to analyse the discourse of scenario planning. I argue that scenario planning, a strategy of speculation about possible futures, elides history—specifically the intertwined processes of colonialism and capitalism—in favour of the idea of globalization as an inexorable unfolding of the world as a complex system. Following a brief genealogy of the discourse of scenario planning that highlights its Cold War origins, and ongoing function in imagining, and helping to secure, the future of global capitalism, I offer as counterpoint a postcolonial reading of Animal's People. A fictional exploration of the aftermath of the 1984 Union Carbide factory gas leak in Bhopal, India, the novel contests (thematically and formally) the hegemonic temporality of globalization that informs scenario planning and the model of risk management it inspires.     

Hiring a Gay Man,Taking a Risk?: A Lab Experiment on Employment Discrimination and Risk Aversion

We investigate risk aversion as a driver of labor market discrimination against homosexual men. We show that more hiring discrimination by more risk-averse employers is consistent with taste-based and statistical discrimination. To test this hypothesis we conduct a scenario experiment in which experimental employers take a fictitious hiring decision concerning a heterosexual or homosexual male job candidate. In addition, participants are surveyed on their risk aversion and other characteristics that might correlate with this risk aversion. Analysis of the (post-)experimental data confirms our hypothesis. The likelihood of a beneficial hiring decision for homosexual male candidates decreases by 31.7% when employers are a standard deviation more risk-averse.     

绿色供应链中不对称需求预测下的信息共享研究

研究了由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的绿色供应链和他们的需求预测信息共享问题。考虑了两种方案：订货型生产方案和库存型生产方案，两种方案下分别考虑了无信息共享和信息共享两种情况。分析了预测信息对两种方案下制造商利润、零售商利润和信息共享价值的影响，同时研究了绿色成本系数对信息共享的影响。研究表明，两种方案中制造商始终能从信息共享中获利，而零售商只有在制造商绿色成本系数较低时才会自愿共享预测信息。当绿色成本系数较高时，制造商可以通过一个讨价还价合同，促进零售商进行信息共享。当绿色成本系数很高时，供应链成员之间不存在信息共享。此外，库存型生产方案中信息共享带来的总收益增量要高于订货型生产方案，因此，库存型生产方案中参与者信息共享的可能性要高于订货型生产方案。     

Improving Tsunami Warning Systems with Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System Input

An optimal and integrative tsunami warning system is introduced that takes full advantage of remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS) in monitoring, forecasting, detection, loss evaluation, and relief management for tsunamis. Using the primary impact zone in Banda Aceh, Indonesia as the pilot area, we conducted three simulations that showed that while the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami claimed about 300,000 lives because there was no tsunami warning system at all, it is possible that only about 15,000 lives could have been lost if the area had used a tsunami warning system like that currently in use in the Pacific Ocean. The simulations further calculated that the death toll could have been about 3,000 deaths if there had been a disaster system further optimized with full use of remote sensing and GIS, although the number of badly damaged or destroyed houses (29,545) could have likely remained unchanged.     

Gamma lifetimes and associated inference for interval-censored cure rate model with COM–Poisson competing cause

In this article, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the wider family of Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (COM–Poisson) distribution to model the number of competing causes. Assuming the type of the data to be interval censored, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to determine the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the model parameters. A profile likelihood approach within the EM framework is proposed to estimate the COM–Poisson shape parameter. An extensive simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed EM algorithm. Model selection within the wider class of COM–Poisson distribution is carried out using likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria. A study to demonstrate the effect of model mis-specification is also carried out. Finally, the proposed estimation method is applied to a data on smoking cessation and a detailed analysis of the obtained results is presented.     

新贸易形势下中国能源经济预测与展望

随着2018年以来中美贸易摩擦升级等国际贸易形势的变动,中国经济迎来了新的机遇与挑战。在新贸易形势与中国内部产业升级的共同影响下,中国能源行业在快速发展的同时也面临调整压力。从行业角度阐述新贸易形势下中国能源经济发展前景,并通过情景分析对各能源行业与能源密集型行业的产值与能源消费进行预测,探讨新贸易形势下中国能源经济发展趋势和路径。根据预测结果,中国能源消费结构将持续优化,中美贸易摩擦对中国宏观经济影响并不十分显著,但是仍对某些能源与能源相关行业的产值与能源消费具有一定的不利影响。中国应从重点行业着手,多手段应对新贸易形势下能源经济波动。     

非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景及情景-应对理论综述研究

近年来,非常规突发事件频发,由于其自身具有不可预测性、复杂性和小概率事件等特点,常规的“预测-应对”模式已经难以有效地应对非常规突发事件,“情景-应对”是应对非常规突发事件的基本范式,基于此,对情景及情景-应对理论的研究已成为非常规突发事件应急管理领域中的研究热点,通过对现有文献的梳理,展开综述研究,为未来非常规突发事件应急管理研究奠定了基础。