Bayesian Estimation of Survival Functions under Stochastic Precedence

When estimating the distributions of two random variables, X and Y, investigators often have prior information that Y tends to be bigger than X. To formalize this prior belief, one could potentially assume stochastic ordering between X and Y, which implies Pr(X < or = z) > or = Pr(Y < or = z) for all z in the domain of X and Y. Stochastic ordering is quite restrictive, though, and this article focuses instead on Bayesian estimation of the distribution functions of X and Y under the weaker stochastic precedence constraint, Pr(X < or = Y) > or = 0.5. We consider the case where both X and Y are categorical variables with common support and develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm for posterior computation. The method is then generalized to the case where X and Y are survival times. The proposed approach is illustrated using data on survival after tumor removal for patients with malignant melanoma.     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

Simulation for the complex Bingham distribution

The complex Bingham distribution is relevant for the shape analysis of landmark data in two dimensions. In this paper it is shown that the problem of simulating from this distribution reduces to simulation from a truncated multivariate exponential distribution. Several simulation methods are described and their efficiencies are compared.     

Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

Regression models for survival data are often specified from the hazard function while classical regression analysis of quantitative outcomes focuses on the mean value (possibly after suitable transformations). Methods for regression analysis of mean survival time and the related quantity, the restricted mean survival time, are reviewed and compared to a method based on pseudo-observations. Both Monte Carlo simulations and two real data sets are studied. It is concluded that while existing methods may be superior for analysis of the mean, pseudo-observations seem well suited when the restricted mean is studied.     

对高师大学生闲暇体育现状的调查分析

闲暇体育也称“余暇体育”,是学校体育的重要组成部分,是实现学校体育目的及任务的主要途径之一。本文概述了高师大学生闲暇体育的内涵,调查了高师大学生闲暇体育的现状,分析了高师大学生闲暇体育的问题,并提出了今后发展高师大学生闲暇优育的意见,开展针对性强、实用性广的闲暇体育,对培养大学生良好的体育意识,养成经常参加体育锻炼的习惯,有着十分重要的意义。     

陈骙《文则》的修辞研究方法举隅

陈马癸《文则》考察修辞现象的方法至今仍有意义。着眼于汉语修辞学史 ,从“假之以渔”,而不是“假之以鱼”的角度 ,可发现《文则》中蕴含着素朴的辩证综合法、直观分析法、有限演绎法 ,实在难能可贵 ,值得今人批判地继承     

Measurement error, skewness, and risk analysis: coping with the long tail of the distribution.

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the "winner's curse" so that the estimated risk premium for low-probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay-off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk-neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are, positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.     

印度诗学阐释方法

印度诗学阐释方法和印度诗学一样充满异质性,很具研究价值."神谕天启"和"析例相随"是其两大基本形式.二者互相作用,形成了印度诗学阐释方法的"尊神重析"的风格特征.印度诗学阐释方法,是在特定的历史文化环境中生成和发展的,它的旺盛的生命力向人们昭示其生成和发展充满必然性和合理性.     

中国儒家经济伦理思想探析

在对中国儒家经济伦理思想全面分析的基础上,对儒家经济伦理思想的核心"义利观"给予重点剖析,并对儒家经济伦理的典型:徽商和现代儒商进行了分析。     

关于少数民族县(市)人才资源开发的思考

以恩施自治州部分县市为例分析少数民族山区县市人才资源开发的现状,以及人才匮乏的成因;并就少数民族县市如何开发人才资源作了一些探索性的思考,认为各部门要按照"科技兴国"的战略部署,树立正确观念,加快制定和完善育才、用才、引才、留才的长远规划及政策,营造一个有利于科技创新、人才创业的良好环境和机制。