Search With Dirichlet Priors: Estimation and Implications for Consumer Demand

This article is an empirical application of the search model with an unknown distribution, as introduced by Rothschild in 1974. For searchers who hold Dirichlet priors, we develop a novel characterization of optimal search behavior. Our solution delivers easily computable formulas for the ex-ante purchase probabilities as outcomes of search, as required by discrete-choice-based estimation. Using our method, we investigate the consequences of consumer learning on the properties of search-generated demand. Holding search costs constant, the search model from a known distribution predicts larger price elasticities, mainly for the lower-priced products. We estimate a search model with Dirichlet priors, on a dataset of prices and market shares of S&P 500 mutual funds. We find that the assumption of no uncertainty in consumer priors leads to substantial biases in search cost estimates.     

综合性大学图书馆外文文献信息服务刍议

根据合并后的内蒙古民族大学的性质和特点 ,就综合性大学图书馆外文文献信息资源共享、建立特色馆藏、做好文献翻译、开展文献检索教学、实行对外开放和为地方经济建设服务等问题 ,做了初步探讨     

Constructing 1-rotational NRDFs through an optimization approach: new (46,9,8), (51,10,9) and (55,9,8)-NRBDs

In this paper we formulate the problem of constructing 1-rotational near resolvable difference families as a combinatorial optimization problem where a global optimum corresponds to a desired difference family. Then, we develop an algorithm based on scatter search in conjunction with a tabu search to construct many of these difference families. In particular, we construct three new near resolvable difference families which lead to an equal number of new 1-rotational near resolvable block designs with parameters: (46,9,8), (51,10,9) and (55,9,8). Our results indicate that this conjunction outperforms both scatter search and tabu search.     

基于互联网搜索信息的预测模型研究--以余额宝产品需求为例

基于百度指数，以余额宝资产规模为例，运用ARIMA模型构建引入互联网搜索量的市场需求预测模型，同时建立不含互联网搜索量的预测模型，并将二者进行对比研究，发现包含互联网搜索量数据的预测模型的预测准确度更高，说明互联网搜索量数据包含一些在传统模型中未能考虑到的因素，该变量的引入有利于提高模型的预测准确度，为产品或服务的市场决策提供更加精确的预测结果。     

基于可信度分析的高校科技创新能力评价

科技创新评价体系不仅在很大程度上引导高校科研的工作方向,并且与我国努力推进科技创新的发展方向关系密切。本文根据新世纪高等院校科技创新活动的特点,运用可信度数据分析方法,结合2004年高校科技数据实证分析该指标体系的可靠性和可操作性,构建高校科技创新能力评价指标体系。     

伦理代价：科技自由主义与保守主义之间的张力

如何看待科技活动的伦理代价,它可以区分为科技自由主义与科技保守主义两种基本不同的态度;两者之间的张力经常造成我们选择的困境,并且难以坚持一以贯之的立场。对科技活动的不同的伦理态度,通常都可以从利益和文化背景上分析其根源,并通过合理的社会建构,寻求两者之间的良性互补。     

浅谈搜索引擎应用技术

本文阐述了搜索引擎技术的概念;介绍了搜索引擎的技术;总结了应用搜索引擎全面、准确、快速、 有效地进行中文检索的技巧。     

Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data

The genetic algorithm is examined as a method for solving optimization problems in econometric estimation. It does not restrict either the form or regularity of the objective function, allows a reasonably large parameter space, and does not rely on a point-to-point search. The performance is evaluated through two sets of experiments on standard test problems as well as econometric problems from the literature. First, alternative genetic algorithms that vary over mutation and crossover rates, population sizes, and other features are contrasted. Second, the genetic algorithm is compared to Nelder–Mead simplex, simulated annealing, adaptive random search, and MSCORE.     

From technology race to technology marathon: A behavioral explanation of technology advancement

In industries characterized by continual progress from lower to higher generations of technology, firms seek to solidify their competitive position by deploying technologies more advanced than their current ones. This study attempts to provide behavioral explanations for the degree of technology advancement pursued by a firm. Using data from the flat panel display industry, we find that the extent of a firm's technology advancement is largely determined by how far it falls below the industry average. Our findings complement prior research on technology races by suggesting that firms in the thin-film-transistor liquid-crystal display (TFT-LCD) industry largely attempt to run a “marathon” rather than a sprint: the degree of technology advancement is mainly guided by a desire not to fall behind the pack as opposed to trying to move ahead of the pack in order to win the race. By the same token, firms exceeding the industry average in their technology reveal little motivation even to maintain their lead, much less extend it.     

On screening samples in the laboratory and factors in factorial investigations

Procedures such as group testing and fractional replication can greatly reduce the workload. The former is especially efficient when the presence of a characteristic in samples is low. Fractional replication can greatly reduce the amount of experimentation when some of the parameters associated with a factorial are nonexistent or negligible. Supersaturated fractional replication can be used to efficiently screen factors when it is suspected that they may not affect a process but it is desired to check this suspicion. There are many types of grouping and pooling material in an investigation. Some of these are discussed as are the interrelationships among the above procedures.