论贤相伊尹的个人素质及其形成

伊尹作为中国历史上第一位贤相,其突出的个人素质表现在精于至味之理、精通耕作之道、创制治病汤液几方面,即懂得如何吃饭、种地和治病。这正是广大民众最为关心的事情,也是治理内政极其关键的因素,只有这三件事做得好,才可能完成"祀与戎"等国家大事。如此全面素质的形成,与其丰富的人生经历和勤于思索有关。     

Inference and Decision Making for 21st-Century Drug Development and Approval

ABSTRACT

The cost and time of pharmaceutical drug development continue to grow at rates that many say are unsustainable. These trends have enormous impact on what treatments get to patients, when they get them and how they are used. The statistical framework for supporting decisions in regulated clinical development of new medicines has followed a traditional path of frequentist methodology. Trials using hypothesis tests of “no treatment effect” are done routinely, and the p-value < 0.05 is often the determinant of what constitutes a “successful” trial. Many drugs fail in clinical development, adding to the cost of new medicines, and some evidence points blame at the deficiencies of the frequentist paradigm. An unknown number effective medicines may have been abandoned because trials were declared “unsuccessful” due to a p-value exceeding 0.05. Recently, the Bayesian paradigm has shown utility in the clinical drug development process for its probability-based inference. We argue for a Bayesian approach that employs data from other trials as a “prior” for Phase 3 trials so that synthesized evidence across trials can be utilized to compute probability statements that are valuable for understanding the magnitude of treatment effect. Such a Bayesian paradigm provides a promising framework for improving statistical inference and regulatory decision making.     

地方政府重大决策机制存在问题及优化路径

地方政府作为地方公共事务管理者，决策正确与否直接关系到公共管理活动的成败，并且在一定程度上影响地方经济发展的水平及其核心竞争力。由于我国地方政府现阶段决策主体多元性及其职能模糊性，一些重大决策失误现象屡屡发生，造成了有限资源的巨大浪费，严重影响了地方政府在人民群众中的威信和形象。对此，我国地方政府迫切需要优化重大决策机制，包括明晰体制内外决策主体的职能、第三方评估、公众参与、决策终身责任追究及倒查机制等，以推进地方政府决策的民主化、科学化和法治化。     

《1844年经济学哲学手稿》与《神圣家族》中的生活思想

《1844年经济学哲学手稿》和《神圣家族》都是马克思主义创始人早期思想的代表性著作，二者都把“生活”作为重要概念进行论述。从作为经济学哲学概念到作为社会批判概念，马克思主义创始人对“生活”的认识经历了从对物质生产活动的重视到对无产阶级普遍贫困生活的揭露，从分析“生产生活”的异化到对“非人性”生活的批判，从“生活的手段”到消灭“非人性的生活条件”的思想历程。人类的历史是人类生活发展的历史。解决人的美好生活如何实现的问题，在马克思恩格斯的生活思想中居于核心地位，这对当今中国具有重要的理论指导价值。中国特色社会主义进入新时代，从开启一种全新文明的生活形态的高度来理解新时代的美好生活，才能准确把握我国社会主要矛盾变化的深刻意义。     

冷战后的中美政治安全关系

冷战结束十年以来 ,美国的对华政策依然摇摆不定。之所以如此 ,是因为十年来美国视中国为敌还是为友 ,或者非敌非友 ,至今还未定性。而美国难于在其国际政治安全战略中给中国定性的原因 ,则与以下的三个层次密切相关 ,即美国的国内政治层次、中美关系的发展层次和全球层次。     

福建省科技资源配置的现状、问题及对策

利用翔实的统计数据和资料,从科技人力资源、财力资源、技术资源等方面分析了福建省科技资源配置的现状及存在的问题,并针对存在的问题提出了相应的对策和建议。     

关于体育教育专业学生能力培养的研究

通过查阅文献资料和问卷调查反馈,研究分析发现,当前体育教育专业学生能力还不能适应社会发展的需要,且发展不平衡。我们认为,对体育教育专业学生能力的培养应从师德教育、教学表达能力、教学组织能力、教学设计能力、适应教学环境的能力、体育教学自修与改革能力、社会竞争能力等方面下手,使学生的能力在四学年的教学实践活动中,得到有序全面的锻炼和提高、达到最佳培养效果。为他们将来成为合格的、高素质的复合型人才打下坚实的基础。     

Trends in the Race and Ethnicity of Eminent Americans

During the last several decades, the ethnic and racial composition of the American elite has changed to include some ethnic minorities and women. This study examines changes in the composition of one segment of the American elite: those who have obtained eminence in their occupations. Lieberson and Carter's study of the ethnic composition of eminent Americans, using Who's Who in America, is replicated with data from the 1990s (Lieberson and Carter, 1979, American Sociological Review 44:347–366). In addition, comparisons between blacks listed in Who's Who in America and blacks listed only in Who's Who among Black Americans are made. During the 20 years since Lieberson and Carter's study, Jews have made remarkable gains in eminent membership, while the rate of black representation has increased only moderately. Women are a small percentage of the eminent regardless of ethnicity, although black women are better represented than their counterparts in white ethnic groups.     

韩非子思想矛盾性浅析

韩非子是法家的集大成者 ,但其思想是矛盾的 ,这种矛盾同他的王室地位和先秦时期的夸饰风气有着密切的关系。这种矛盾并不影响其人格的评价。韩非子是个爱国者 ,其人格是伟大的。     

Subjective utility with upper and lower probabilities on finite states

This article is concerned with thresholds of discrimination of preference judgments under uncertainty. We establish an axiomatic characterization for a threshold representation, where thresholds are represented by inexact measurement of subjective probabilities, i.e., upper and lower probabilities. Since upper and lower probabilities need not be additive, the representational form adopts the Choquet integration.