论现代风险的治理困境及其超越

近年来,＂风险＂已经成为人们理解和解释世界的一个关键概念,＂风险社会＂理论为人们把握当代社会的形态和特征提供了一个全新视角。然而,风险的治理问题也面临着诸多的困境,如风险事实与风险判断的困境、风险治理当下与未来的困境、风险主体的个体性与公共性的困境等。因此,必然要求风险的治理者能正确面对这些困境,从而超越风险本身,超越经济利益本身,超越狭隘个体本身,实现对风险社会的道德治理。     

截面数据精确分段方法研究

针对截面数据分段精度不够,从而导致截面曲线重构精度差的问题,提出一种截面数据精确分段方法。这里重 点研究相邻特征为直线特征和自由特征在满足G1连续时数据的精确分段。首先根据数据平滑的原理及其作用,对被平 滑的数据分别采用不同的领域窗口方法确定出分段点所在的数据点区间;然后以自由曲线的逼近误差作为判断条件,在 该区间内进一步迭代搜索精确的分段点。提出的截面数据分割方法不仅能够在现有数据中寻找分段点,而且可以超越 现有数据点并在其之间寻找更精确的分段点。实例表明,该方法大大提高了截面数据的分段精度,进而使重构的截面曲 线更加符合初始设计意图。     

Nonparametric Nonlinear Cotrending Analysis,With an Application to Interest and Inflation in the United States

Given the assumption that the components of a vector time series are stationary around nonlinear deterministic time trends, nonlinear cotrending is the phenomenon that one or more linear combinations of the time series are stationary around a linear trend or a constant; hence, the series have common nonlinear deterministic time trends. In this article, I develop nonparametric tests for nonlinear cotrending, and I derive nonparametric estimators of the cotrending vectors. I apply this approach to the federal funds rate and the consumer price index inflation rate in the United States, using monthly data, to analyze the price puzzle.     

社区矫正的困惑与反思

社区矫正是我国刑事执行体制和刑罚执行方式的重要革新,对于行刑的人道化、科学化以及降低行刑成本都具有重要价值。但是社区矫正同时也存在适用对象的选择、适用程序、矫正手段以及矫正工作与社区社会工作的结合等方面存在问题,因此必须在肯定社区矫正价值的同时进行反思,科学选择适用对象、完善适用程序、提高矫正工作者素质,以真正实现公正、人道、科学、效益等行刑价值。     

A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Holdings

This paper develops a continuous‐time equilibrium model of a two‐country exchange economy with heterogeneous agents and nontraded goods. Nontraded goods play the role of state variables that shift the marginal utility of traded goods. This affects prices and generates dynamic hedging demands that explain the well documented home bias puzzle in international equity portfolios. When calibrated to both consumption and production data, the model is able to generate significative home bias in equity portfolios. A new methodology, based on Malliavin calculus, is presented to solve for the portfolio policies along the equilibrium path. This methodology allows one to reduce the determination of equilibrium portfolio holdings to the solution of a linear algebraic system, rather than a partial differential equation.