Career Decision State and Assessment of RIASEC Interest Structure

The career decision state (CDS) was studied in relation to RIASEC (Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, Conventional) profiles in Self-Directed Search results among college students (86 women, 27 men). Three CDS dimensions measured by the Career State Inventory (CSI; certainty, satisfaction, and clarity) were examined as predictors of RIASEC primary and secondary constructs. Significant, albeit modest, zero-order correlations (p < .05) emerged between clarity and 3 secondary constructs (i.e., consistency, commonness, and coherence). Results of regression analyses indicated that CSI dimensions predicted 1 secondary construct (i.e., commonness).     

Does a universal non-contributory social pension make sense for rural China?

China’s pension reform during the past three decades has allowed a majority of China’s population to be covered by a pension scheme. Of particular note has been the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), a voluntary programme introduced starting in 2009. One goal of our analysis is to assess that pension scheme, using a variety of sources of information including data drawn from recent (2013 and 2015) nationwide China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Surveys (CHARLS). Our analysis involves an exploration of differences between the generosity and structure of the NRPS and other pension schemes currently in place. We also explore the feasibility of reforming the current “quasi-social pension” component of the NRPS by substituting a universal non-contributory social pension pillar. In connection with our assessment of the NRPS, we note the unusually low benefit levels for rural China.     

The moral hazard of conditionality: Restoring the integrity of social security law

This article examines the extent to which the Australian and UK social security systems meet their legal obligations to provide basic relief to citizens in need. Conditionality and “mutual obligation” are at the core of both the UK and Australian social security systems and are based on the concept of moral hazard, the goal being to ensure that claimants do not consider living on benefits to be preferable to engaging in paid work. Yet, we argue that the element of “mutuality” is missing in both systems; welfare claimants are subject to myriad conditions and obligations, whilst the state operates free of any legal responsibility to provide even basic relief to those in need, to prevent or alleviate extreme poverty and destitution. We outline the extent to which Australian and UK social security laws require governments to relieve destitution, examining both domestic and human rights law. We conclude that legal protections are weak and that both systems fail to meet the basic conditions of humanity toward their citizens. On this basis, we argue that such failings demonstrate a lack of integrity which undermines the standing of both the UK and Australia to invoke a claim of moral hazard to defend claimant conditionality.     

Role of Comparative Risk Assessment in Addressing Environmental Security in the Middle East

During the 21st century, environmental challenges are likely to intensify across the world and possibly lead to violent conflicts. Strategies for conflict avoidance will be incomplete unless they recognize, discuss, and mitigate regional environmental stress factors. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is one of the most critical tools emerging to influence modern environmental policies and is increasingly used to create a common language to help reconcile competing interests in development and environmental disputes around the world. This article considers the environmental challenges facing the Middle East in light of their "transboundary" nature and proposes CRA as a framework for setting environmental priorities and reducing tensions in the region.     

Security Investment in Contagious Networks

Security of the systems is normally interdependent in such a way that security risks of one part affect other parts and threats spread through the vulnerable links in the network. So, the risks of the systems can be mitigated through investments in the security of interconnecting links. This article takes an innovative look at the problem of security investment of nodes on their vulnerable links in a given contagious network as a game‐theoretic model that can be applied to a variety of applications including information systems. In the proposed game model, each node computes its corresponding risk based on the value of its assets, vulnerabilities, and threats to determine the optimum level of security investments on its external links respecting its limited budget. Furthermore, direct and indirect nonlinear influences of a node's security investment on the risks of other nodes are considered. The existence and uniqueness of the game's Nash equilibrium in the proposed game are also proved. Further analysis of the model in a practical case revealed that taking advantage of the investment effects of other players, perfectly rational players (i.e., those who use the utility function of the proposed game model) make more cost‐effective decisions than selfish nonrational or semirational players.     

Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968–2004

Worldwide data on terrorist incidents between 1968 and 2004 gathered by the RAND Corporation and the Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) were assessed for patterns and trends in morbidity/mortality. Adjusted data analyzed involve a total of 19,828 events, 7,401 "adverse" events (each causing >or= 1 victim), and 86,568 "casualties" (injuries), of which 25,408 were fatal. Most terror-related adverse events, casualties, and deaths involved bombs and guns. Weapon-specific patterns and terror-related risk levels in Israel (IS) have differed markedly from those of all other regions combined (OR). IS had a fatal fraction of casualties about half that of OR, but has experienced relatively constant lifetime terror-related casualty risks on the order of 0.5%--a level 2 to 3 orders of magnitude more than those experienced in OR that increased approximately 100-fold over the same period. Individual event fatality has increased steadily, the median increasing from 14% to 50%. Lorenz curves obtained indicate substantial dispersion among victim/event rates: about half of all victims were caused by the top 2.5% (or 10%) of harm-ranked events in OR (or IS). Extreme values of victim/event rates were approximated fairly well by generalized Pareto models (typically used to fit to data on forest fires, sea levels, earthquakes, etc.). These results were in turn used to forecast maximum OR- and IS-specific victims/event rates through 2080, illustrating empirically-based methods that could be applied to improve strategies to assess, prevent, and manage terror-related risks and consequences.     

A Macro-Economic Framework for Evaluation of Cyber Security Risks Related to Protection of Intellectual Property

The article is based on the premise that, from a macro-economic viewpoint, cyber attacks with long-lasting effects are the most economically significant, and as a result require more attention than attacks with short-lasting effects that have historically been more represented in literature. In particular, the article deals with evaluation of cyber security risks related to one type of attack with long-lasting effects, namely, theft of intellectual property (IP) by foreign perpetrators. An International Consequence Analysis Framework is presented to determine (1) the potential macro-economic consequences of cyber attacks that result in stolen IP from companies in the United States, and (2) the likely sources of such attacks. The framework presented focuses on IP theft that enables foreign companies to make economic gains that would have otherwise benefited the U.S. economy. Initial results are presented.     

网上交易中诚信交易激励机制设计

网上交易中日益增长的欺诈行为阻碍了人们参与网上交易的积极性.激励参与方在网上交易中诚信交易非常必要,而现有的简单反馈机制难以实现激励诚信交易的功能.提出了一种新的网上交易市场中激励诚信交易的机制——注册押金和交易保证金制度.该机制不仅把交易前的交易保证金与交易方信誉指数结合起来防范交易方欺诈,而且重构了每次交易可获得的信誉指数计算方法以激励交易方在长期中保持诚信.通过对该机制下交易方行为的博弈分析,证明了诚信不仅是单阶段博弈的纳什均衡策略,还是长期博弈的子博弈完美纳什均衡策略.最后,通过随机选取eBay市场的交易数据,对机制进行了模拟,并验证了其有效性.     

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.