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131.
基于核和灰度的双重异构数据序列预测建模方法研究   总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1  
通过建立灰色异构数据"核"序列的DGM(1,1)模型,实现双重异构数据"核"的预测;以"核"为基础、以双重异构数据序列中较大的区间灰数信息域作为预测结果的信息域,构建基于区间灰数与实数的双重异构数据序列灰色预测模型,有效地将灰色预测模型建模对象从"同质数据"拓展至"双重异构数据"。研究成果对丰富灰色预测模型理论体系具有积极意义。  相似文献   
132.
The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the model fits the data well. Sometimes, few observations of a measurement process might be recorded in applications and so selecting a high quantile of the sample as the threshold leads to almost no exceedances. In this paper we propose extensions of the generalised Pareto distribution that incorporate an additional shape parameter while keeping the tail behaviour unaffected. The inclusion of this parameter offers additional structure for the main body of the distribution, improves the stability of the modified scale, tail index and return level estimates to threshold choice and allows a lower threshold to be selected. We illustrate the benefits of the proposed models with a simulation study and two case studies.  相似文献   
133.
In many conventional scientific investigations with high or ultra-high dimensional feature spaces, the relevant features, though sparse, are large in number compared with classical statistical problems, and the magnitude of their effects tapers off. It is reasonable to model the number of relevant features as a diverging sequence when sample size increases. In this paper, we investigate the properties of the extended Bayes information criterion (EBIC) (Chen and Chen, 2008) for feature selection in linear regression models with diverging number of relevant features in high or ultra-high dimensional feature spaces. The selection consistency of the EBIC in this situation is established. The application of EBIC to feature selection is considered in a SCAD cum EBIC procedure. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the SCAD cum EBIC procedure in finite sample cases.  相似文献   
134.
科技资源配置能力已成为长江地区城市化进程的重要推力。因此,在构建科技资源与城市化耦合系统评价指标体系的基础上,利用耦合协调度模型综合评价长江区域科技资源配置与城市化的交互耦合关系。结果显示:从时间维度看,研究期内长三角科技资源配置能力与城市化进程之间的耦合关系基本上处于磨合阶段,耦合协调度以低度协调耦合状态为主并逐步过渡到中度协调耦合状态;从空间维度看,长三角各城市的科技资源配置与城市化耦合协调度在极度协调耦合、高度协调耦合、中度协调耦合、低度协调耦合四个阶段均有分布,层级分明且大部分城市尚处于低度协调耦合状态。  相似文献   
135.
针对科技奖励评价的特点,根据改进D—S证据合成规则,将专家的评价指标值转化为指标的综合得分并形成决策矩阵;结合TOPSIS模型求解理想解和负理想解,计算距离和贴近度,对各评价项目进行综合排名。实证结果表明:该模型能够很好地解决科技奖励评价过程中的不确定性问题,为科技奖励综合评价提供了一种新的思路。  相似文献   
136.
Matthias Kohl 《Statistics》2013,47(4):473-488
Bednarski and Müller [Optimal bounded influence regression and scale M-estimators in the context of experimental design, Statistics 35 (2001), pp. 349–369] introduced a class of bounded influence M estimates for the simultaneous estimation of regression and scale in the linear model with normal errors by solving the corresponding normal location and scale problem at each design point. This limits the proposal to regressor distributions with finite support. Based on their approach, we propose a slightly extended class of M estimates that is not restricted to finite support and is numerically easier to handle. Moreover, we employ the even more general class of asymptotically linear (AL) estimators which, in addition, is not restricted to normal errors. The superiority of AL estimates is demonstrated by numerical comparisons of the maximum asymptotic mean-squared error over infinitesimal contamination neighbourhoods.  相似文献   
137.
M-estimation is a widely used technique for robust statistical inference. In this paper, we study model selection and model averaging for M-estimation to simultaneously improve the coverage probability of confidence intervals of the parameters of interest and reduce the impact of heavy-tailed errors or outliers in the response. Under general conditions, we develop robust versions of the focused information criterion and a frequentist model average estimator for M-estimation, and we examine their theoretical properties. In addition, we carry out extensive simulation studies as well as two real examples to assess the performance of our new procedure, and find that the proposed method produces satisfactory results.  相似文献   
138.
Dankmar Böhing 《Statistics》2013,47(4):487-495
Tn optimal experimental design theory there are well-known situations, in which additional constraints are implied to the design set. These constraints destroy in general the simplex structure of the set of feasible points of the design set. Thus the available iteration procedures for the unrestricted case are no longer applicable.

In this paper a penalty approach is suggested which transforms the restricted problem to the unrestricted case and allows the application of well-known algorithms such as the Fedorov-Wynn-type or the projected gradient procedure.  相似文献   
139.
J. Gladitz  J. Pilz 《Statistics》2013,47(4):491-506
We deal with experimental designs minimizing the mean square error of the linear BAYES estimator for the parameter vector of a multiple linear regression model where the experimental region is the k-dimensional unit sphere. After computing the uniquely determined optimum information matrix, we construct, separately for the homogeneous and the inhomogeneous model, both approximate and exact designs having such an information matrix.  相似文献   
140.
Egmar Rödel 《Statistics》2013,47(4):573-585
Normed bivariate density funtions were introduced by HOEFFDING (1940/41). In the present paper estimators for normed bivariate ranks and on a FOURIER series expansion in LEGENDRE polynomials. The estimation of normed bivarate density functions under positive dependence is also described  相似文献   
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