No mood effects in the field: The case of car inspections

We study mood effect in the field to measure its economic impact and address shortcomings in the existing literature, which typically uses one single mood proxy and ignores selection effects. Using over 50 million car inspections in Sweden and England and multiple mood proxies, we study whether car inspectors are more lenient on good mood days and if car owners self-select into those days. We find evidence of a “Friday effect” in England and a small selection bias, but no support for consistent mood effect. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the expectations of rational actors who may exploit mood effect and the need to study mood in the field using different settings and multiple proxies to avoid hasty conclusions.     

Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems

This paper reviews a set of recent studies that have attempted to measure the causal effect of education on labor market earnings by using institutional features of the supply side of the education system as exogenous determinants of schooling outcomes. A simple theoretical model that highlights the role of comparative advantage in the optimal schooling decision is presented and used to motivate an extended discussion of econometric issues, including the properties of ordinary least squares and instrumental variables estimators. A review of studies that have used compulsory schooling laws, differences in the accessibility of schools, and similar features as instrumental variables for completed education, reveals that the resulting estimates of the return to schooling are typically as big or bigger than the corresponding ordinary least squares estimates. One interpretation of this finding is that marginal returns to education among the low‐education subgroups typically affected by supply‐side innovations tend to be relatively high, reflecting their high marginal costs of schooling, rather than low ability that limits their return to education.     

The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models

This paper analyzes the specification and identification of causal multivariate duration models. We focus on the case in which one duration concerns the point in time a treatment is initiated and we are interested in the effect of this treatment on some outcome duration. We define “no anticipation of treatment” and relate it to a common assumption in biostatistics. We show that (i) no anticipation and (ii) randomized treatment assignment can be imposed without restricting the observational data. We impose (i) but not (ii) and prove identification of models that impose some structure. We allow for dependent unobserved heterogeneity and we do not exploit exclusion restrictions on covariates. We provide results for both single‐spell and multiple‐spell data. The timing of events conveys useful information on the treatment effect.     

Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision-making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies

Risk matrices communicate the likelihood and potential impact of risks and are often used to inform decision-making around risk mitigations. The merits and demerits of risk matrices in general have been discussed extensively, yet little attention has been paid to the potential influence of color in risk matrices on their users. We draw from fuzzy-trace theory and hypothesize that when color is present, individuals are likely to place greater value on reducing risks that cross color boundaries (i.e., the boundary-crossing effect), leading to sub-optimal decision making. In two randomized controlled studies, employing forced-choice and willingness-to-pay measures to investigate the boundary-crossing effect in two different color formats for risk matrices, we find preliminary evidence to support our hypotheses that color can influence decision making. The evidence also suggests that the boundary-crossing effect is only present in, or is stronger for, higher numeracy individuals. We therefore recommend that designers should consider avoiding color in risk matrices, particularly in situations where these are likely to be used by highly numerate individuals, if the communication goal is to inform in an unbiased way.     

Social psychology as a stable interpretative framework irrefutably committed to the scientific study of persons and society

Despite repeated opportunities to reconsider their natural science ambitions, social psychologists have not done so, and there are no obvious signs of this changing. Why? This paper pursues an answer to this question by defining the field after the fashion of Michael Polanyi's thought. According to Polanyi, interpretative frameworks develop from our primitive bodily encounters with the world and then are shaped by language into the vast conceptual systems of our culture. Concerning frameworks erected on our most fundamental beliefs (e.g., science), he says that we “live in [them] as in the garment of our own skin.” Frameworks such as this are not objects of critical evaluation but of commitment, and social psychology, as an outgrowth of positive philosophy, is an interpretative framework in this sense. Professionals' recent responses to the field's political makeup and replication failures demonstrate this. They aim primarily at preserving a natural science understanding of social psychology and point to the influence of belief-stabilizing mechanisms Polanyi finds operative in folk religious practices. These mechanisms appear at work also in psychology as a whole. They are implied, for instance, in the field's resistance to Sigmund Koch's authoritative judgement against its scientific self-conception in the latter half of the 20^th century. Noting this reveals the broader implications of this paper's definition of social psychology, but it also urges questions about truth and relativity that cannot be ignored. These questions are addressed briefly in the end where it is suggested that what psychology needs most of all is a change of heart, and that this will happen, if at all, not primarily through argument and evidence, but through persons who authentically believe in the veracity of a different framework.     

Toward a comprehensive perspective on hubristic leadership – An aggregation of cross-disciplinary evidence and roadmap for future research

A growing body of literature reveals that the emergence of hubris is by no means a rare phenomenon in leadership contexts. Despite having been repeatedly proven that hubris has both beneficial and detrimental manifestations in leadership behaviors, its positioning as a harmful cognitive bias continues to echo across disciplines. To unify the fragmented hubris tradition, this paper synthesizes existing literature and identifies three perspectives on hubristic leadership: an innovation perspective, an internal coordination and commercialization perspective, and a risk management perspective. The aggregation of these perspectives into a unifying theoretical framework indicates that the type of leadership behavior together with the predictability of its outcomes account for the ambivalent manifestations of hubris across leadership behaviors. Future research opportunities are discussed on this basis.     

母系偏向的情感整合：转型期农村三代家庭生活实践的新趋向

随着现代化转型的深入，农村家庭的伦理和功能整合已经不足以呈现家庭转型的丰富面向。通过实地调研发现，农村三代家庭在日常生活实践中，出现了母系偏向的家庭整合样态，其特征表现为日常互动的母系偏向、资源整合的母系偏重和儿童抚育的母女合作。在母系偏向的整合实践中，少子家庭下的情感合法性支撑构成了整合空间，家庭利益需求下的情感策略作为整合动力，权变结构下年轻女性的情感资源成为整合优势，凸显出偏向母系家庭的情感整合样态和家庭秩序。情感整合的出现说明情感结构足以成为影响家庭样态的前台力量，中国家庭开始从父子一体转向亲子一体，家庭功能实现的情感权重显化，并且在双系互动中由于情感资源的优势，女系开始隐性崛起。由此表明，家庭的情感化和亲密化是理解家庭现代化转型实践的又一重要面向。     

图形的逻辑力量：因果图的概念及其应用

本文旨在系统性地引介因果图方法,一种社会科学领域新近发展起来的探究因果推断的非参数估计工具。首先对因果图的基本概念和构型进行介绍,讨论变量之间不同“通路”对应的开启和阻断规则及因果推断中的三种偏差来源,即混淆偏差、过度控制偏差、内生性选择偏差。在此基础上,本文将因果图框架与现有定量社会科学研究中基于回归模型的因果推断方法思路进行融合,结合实际案例使用因果图阐释包括遗漏变量、样本选择、自选择及联立性在内的四种内生性问题,并对多元回归与匹配、代理变量、实验、工具变量、面板模型等因果推断方法的运行机制进行了图形化。最后,本文使用因果图厘清一些关于因果推断的不准确理解。     

我国文书提出义务制度运行现状及完善路径 ——基于《民诉法解释》第112条的分析

为解决民事诉讼中长期存在着“证据偏在”问题，2001年最高人民法院出台的《关于民事诉讼证据的若干规定》和2015年出 台的《关于适用〈中华人民共和国民事诉讼法〉的解释》都对其进行了规制，特别是后者规定了文书提出义务制度。但是过于保守 和笼统的规范在诉讼实践中表现出诸多不足，通过判决书为线索对文书提出义务在实务中的运行现状进行分析，并结合域外的制 度经验，指出其缺陷和不足之处，尝试探索完善路径。     

人工智能技术与劳动力迁出决策——来自全国流动人口动态监测调查的经验证据

以人工智能为核心的新兴技术革命正不断渗透我国劳动力市场，微观劳动力个体面临地区智能化技术冲击时的迁出决策是关乎区域经济高质量发展的重要现实性问题。利用网络爬虫方法获取的城市层面人工智能专利数据，结合2014—2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据，实证考察了人工智能技术对劳动力迁出决策的影响。研究结果表明，人工智能技术会显著提高劳动力迁出决策的概率。机制分析表明，人工智能技术会通过减少就业机会和降低工资收入水平两种传导路径引发劳动力迁出决策。进一步分析表明，人工智能技术主要偏向引致中低技能、从事常规性职业、过往迁移时间较短、农业户口和非国有企业劳动力迁出。因此，政府应着力加强劳动力权益保护和再就业，积极开展劳动力职业培训，减少技术性失业诱发的劳动力外流。