金融危机、货币政策与企业贷款行为——基于企业风险承担的微观视角研究

货币政策调控会先影响企业的风险偏好或风险容忍度,进而对企业的贷款行为产生影响。并且,金融危机冲击和货币政策调控会引起不同特征企业贷款行为的异质性反应。经验研究发现：宽松的货币政策会显著引起我国企业风险承担的上升,而企业风险承担上升也显著引起其银行贷款规模的增加,中小企业、股权分散型企业和民营企业其银行贷款规模对企业风险承担变化的反应更加敏感。在2008-2009年金融危机期间,企业风险承担水平对货币政策变动的反应更加灵敏,而企业贷款规模对企业风险承担的敏感度有所下降,大型企业、股权集中型企业和国有企业其基于企业风险承担传导的银行贷款行为受金融危机冲击影响更大。     

Maternal Discipline and Children's Adjustment: The Role of the Cultural and Situational Context

This study examined how the cultural and situational contexts can jointly shape the consequences of discipline strategies. Israeli mothers who grew up in Israel or in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) (overall N = 110) reported regarding their use of psychologically controlling and punitive discipline with their seven‐years‐old to 10‐years‐old children, and teachers reported regarding children's behavior problems. We assessed both mothers' overall general use of the discipline strategies, and their use of the same strategies following transgressions in the academic domain, an area which the two groups emphasize to differing degrees. Consistent with hypothesis, controlling discipline in academic situations had more positive consequences in the FSU group compared with the Israeli‐origin group. In contrast, and as predicted, cultural group was not a moderator of mothers' overall, general use of the same discipline strategies. The findings illustrate how taking the situation into account can inform examination of the moderating role of cultural group.     

Approach and Positive Affect in Toddlerhood Predict Early Childhood Behavior Problems

The aim of the study was to examine the moderating role of positive affect on the relation between approach behaviors and adjustment outcomes. One hundred eleven toddlers participated in a laboratory assessment of approach and positive affect at 24 months. Behavior problems were reported by a parent in the fall of the child's kindergarten year. Results supported our hypotheses that children who displayed high approach and high positive affect in both non‐threat and low‐threat contexts were rated as higher in externalizing behavior problems. On the other hand, for children showing low positive affect, increases in approach in a moderate‐threat context lowered the risk of developing internalizing behavior problems. Implications for these findings are discussed, including methodological considerations of differences among eliciting contexts and advantages of separating positive affect and approach.     

Is Tattooing a Risk Factor for Adolescents’ Criminal Behavior? Empirical Evidence from an Administrative Data Set of Juvenile Detainees in Taiwan

Juvenile crime affects not only the victims of the crime but also the delinquents’ future. How to prevent adolescent criminal behavior has become an important public policy issue. This study contributes to this interesting issue by examining the relationship between tattooing and adolescents’ criminal behavior. In particular, this study investigates whether or not having a tattoo/tattoos is connected to the incidence of various criminal activities, including: larceny, robbery, fraud, assault, drug use, and homicide. A unique sample of 973 juvenile detainees drawn from the administrative profiles in Taiwan and the coarsened exact matching method were utilized. Results show that compared to their nontattooed counterparts, tattooed juvenile detainees were significantly more likely to commit fraud, assault, drug abuse, and homicide by 3%, 13%, 9%, and 9%, respectively. In contrast, tattooing was not significantly associated with larceny or robbery. From a policy perspective, given the significant link between tattooing and criminal behavior, the presence of a tattoo in adolescents may serve as a valuable indicator regarding adolescents’ high probability of committing crimes.     

Transient detailed balance and product form for reaction networks

This paper explores the boundary of the set of reaction networks that have an exact transient (truncated) multidimensional Poisson or product-form distribution for the number of particles of different types. Motivated by the birth–death process, we introduce the notions of transient detailed balance and delay functions, and use these notions to obtain the novel transient product-form distribution in a coagulation-fragmentation process for polymers with a tree-like structure from that of the pure coagulation process.     

The shifting landscape of LGBT organizational research

Over the past generation, sexual minorities—particularly lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) persons—have gained increased visibility in the public arena. Yet organizational research has lagged behind in recognizing and studying this category of organizational members. This article offers a critical review of this growing body of research. More specifically, we identify and discuss four dominant scholarly frames that have informed LGBT organizational research from the late nineteenth century to date. The frames include a “medical abnormality,” “deviant social role,” “collective identity,” and “social distinctiveness” view of sexual minorities. We argue that these frames have profoundly shaped the scope and range of organizational scholarship devoted to sexual minorities by showing that scholars using such contrasted frames have been drawn to very different research questions with respect to sexual minorities. We document and discuss the main and contrasted questions asked within each of these frames and show how they have both enabled and constrained LGBT organizational research. We conclude by calling for more attention to the frames organizational scholars adopt when studying sexual minorities, but also for more research on both minority and majority sexual orientations in organizations.     

Awareness of low self-control: Theory and evidence from a homeless shelter

Survey measures of self-control provide a potential low-cost alternative to incentivized elicitation. However, asking respondents to introspect on their self-control problems may instead measure their awareness of them, especially in populations with low self-control. We illustrate this with the Ameriks, Caplin, Leahy, and Tyler (2007) survey, which captures self-control problems through the deviation between self-reported ideal and predicted behavior (Expected Deviation, ED). Previous empirical evidence from high income or highly educated populations correlates larger ED with worse outcomes. We theoretically show that the reverse will be true in settings where awareness can play a large role: when self-control is low and costly commitment devices are available. We empirically show that, for residents of a homeless shelter, ED is positively correlated to savings in shelter lockboxes, a costly commitment device. This correlation is stronger for those likely to experience more self-control problems: individuals with past addiction problems.     

危险驾驶罪的立法浅析

《刑法修正案(八)》将醉驾、飙车行为入罪，对严厉醉驾行为确实起到了震慑作用，收到了积极的社会效果。但是，对于刑法的提前介入以及该罪的内涵与外延该如何理解；社会舆论对于醉驾行为的性质还存在行为犯或者危险犯的争论：这些问题对于该罪在司法实践中的适用极其重要，值得我们深入思考。     

国际组织与成员国法律责任多重归属问题研究

国际组织和成员国的法律责任归属问题一直以来都是国际法争论的话题。政府间国际组织作为一类国际法主体,应独立承担法律责任。但在实践中,成员国在执行国际组织决议的过程中往往滥用国际组织法律人格,其行为不仅是国际组织法律人格的体现,还代表了自己的意志,造成法律责任归属不明。以此种争议情形为研究对象,结合1999年的使用武力合法性案,2007年欧洲人权法院的拜拉米案和萨拉马提(Behrami/Saramati)案、阿尔吉达(Al-Jedda)案以及2014年海牙法院关于斯雷布雷尼察(Srebrenica)诉荷兰案的相关判决,借鉴国外学者近几年的相关研究,认为应当坚持国际组织和成员国法律责任的多重归属。围绕责任多重归属原则的确立过程,通过对2011年《国际组织责任条款草案》相关条文的分析,明确了行为归属与责任归属的关系:只有确定行为归属之后,才能确定责任归属;为了最终确定责任的多重归属,提出以有效控制为标准认定行为归属,并明确这种有效控制是对具体行为的事实控制。     

Discovering hidden statistical issues through individual-level models in ecological studies

ABSTRACT

In ecological studies, individual inference is made based on results from ecological models. Interpretation of the results requires caution since ecological analysis on group level may not hold in the individual level within the groups, leading to ecological fallacy. Using an ecological regression example for analyzing voting behaviors, we highlight that the explicit use of individual-level models is crucial in understanding the results of ecological studies. In particular, we clarify three relevant statistical issues for each individual-level models: assessment of the uncertainty of parameter estimates obtained from a wrong model, the use of shrinkage estimation method for simultaneous estimation of many parameters, and the necessity of sensitivity analysis rather than adhering to one seemingly most compelling assumption.