康德先验逻辑的基本问题

康德的先验逻辑对传统哲学特别是形而上学所运用的范畴在分类的基础上作了新的理解,指出了范畴作为思维的逻辑功能,是对感性直观的固有关系。这就决定了先验逻辑的基本问题是范畴与直观的固有关系问题。它构成先验逻辑不同于形式逻辑和思辨逻辑的根本点。     

Causal Reasoning from Longitudinal Data*

Abstract. This paper reviews some of the key statistical ideas that are encountered when trying to find empirical support to causal interpretations and conclusions, by applying statistical methods on experimental or observational longitudinal data. In such data, typically a collection of individuals are followed over time, then each one has registered a sequence of covariate measurements along with values of control variables that in the analysis are to be interpreted as causes, and finally the individual outcomes or responses are reported. Particular attention is given to the potentially important problem of confounding. We provide conditions under which, at least in principle, unconfounded estimation of the causal effects can be accomplished. Our approach for dealing with causal problems is entirely probabilistic, and we apply Bayesian ideas and techniques to deal with the corresponding statistical inference. In particular, we use the general framework of marked point processes for setting up the probability models, and consider posterior predictive distributions as providing the natural summary measures for assessing the causal effects. We also draw connections to relevant recent work in this area, notably to Judea Pearl's formulations based on graphical models and his calculus of so‐called do‐probabilities. Two examples illustrating different aspects of causal reasoning are discussed in detail.     

Conditional Likelihood Estimators for Hidden Markov Models and Stochastic Volatility Models

ABSTRACT.  This paper develops a new contrast process for parametric inference of general hidden Markov models, when the hidden chain has a non-compact state space. This contrast is based on the conditional likelihood approach, often used for ARCH-type models. We prove the strong consistency of the conditional likelihood estimators under appropriate conditions. The method is applied to the Kalman filter (for which this contrast and the exact likelihood lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators) and to the discretely observed stochastic volatility models.     

从搭配到异常搭配——词项搭配力的扩展

回顾中外学者对异常搭配的构成方式和理论依据的研究可以发现,这种创造性地使用语言的方式比常用的词语搭配更能吸引人们的注意力,满足人们的审美需求,从而更好地达到交际目的。     

现代汉语语义系统刍议

语义单位、语义单位之间的结构关系、结构层次是现代汉语语言意义系统的三要素 ,不同性质的语义单位彼此之间复杂纠联 ,使构成语义系统的两子系统 (词汇意义、语法意义子系统 )、两次子系统 (词法意义、句法意义次子系统 )紧密地联结在—起 ,构成一个统一的内部饶有联系的结构整体     

A modified false discovery rate multiple-comparisons procedure for discrete data, applied to human immunodeficiency virus genetics

Summary.  To help to design vaccines for acquired immune deficiency syndrome that protect broadly against many genetic variants of the human immunodeficiency virus, the mutation rates at 118 positions in HIV amino-acid sequences of subtype C versus those of subtype B were compared. The false discovery rate (FDR) multiple-comparisons procedure can be used to determine statistical significance. When the test statistics have discrete distributions, the FDR procedure can be made more powerful by a simple modification. The paper develops a modified FDR procedure for discrete data and applies it to the human immunodeficiency virus data. The new procedure detects 15 positions with significantly different mutation rates compared with 11 that are detected by the original FDR method. Simulations delineate conditions under which the modified FDR procedure confers large gains in power over the original technique. In general FDR adjustment methods can be improved for discrete data by incorporating the modification proposed.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.     

Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

Modelling map positional error to infer true feature location

The authors consider the issue of map positional error, or the difference between location as represented in a spatial database (i.e., a map) and the corresponding unobservable true location. They propose a fully model‐based approach that incorporates aspects of the map registration process commonly performed by users of geographic informations systems, including rubber‐sheeting. They explain how estimates of positional error can be obtained, hence estimates of true location. They show that with multiple maps of varying accuracy along with ground truthing data, suitable model averaging offers a strategy for using all of the maps to learn about true location.     

意义推导模式

意义推导模式即代码(或信码)模式、推理模式和明示—推理模式。代码模式几乎完全排斥了语境的作用、交际主体及其在表达思想时对语言运用的灵活性和多面性;推理模式是随着人们对意义认识的加深和语用学的诞生而提出来的,其重心是对暗含的推导。关联理论汲取了推理模式(甚至代码模式)的优点,又加上了明示一词,提出了明示—推理模式,其意义的推导涵盖了明说和暗含。