Social investment effects of public education,health care,and welfare service expenditures on economic growth

The purpose of this study is to theoretically and empirically examine whether public spending in education, health care, and welfare service operates as a fruitful investment in welfare states, which has been implied in the literature of social investment arguments. Based on comprehensive review of existing literature, this study suggested a tripartite mechanism of social investment effect of such spending, that is “enhancement of human capital,” “support for labor force participation,” and “job creation.” To find the empirical evidence, a pooled time‐series cross‐section analysis was conducted with the data of 15 advanced welfare states from 1980 to 2015 using estimation technique of fixed‐effect model. The results confirmed that public spending in education, health care, and welfare service had a positive medium‐term as well as long‐term effect on economic performance, while cash‐type welfare spending had an obscure or no visible effect on economy. Government consumption that is a proxy and control variable of size of the welfare state showed a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term but a negative effect in the long run. In conclusion, this study suggests that reinforcing social services should be recognized and dealt with as essence of social investment strategy.     

资本结构与员工劳动生产率

债务作为重要的公司治理手段,可以降低企业、管理层与员工之间的委托代理成本,提高员工劳动生产率.同时,债务水平上升将提高企业破产风险,对企业和员工的人力资本投入与员工劳动生产率可能产生不利影响.以我国1999年一2014年工业企业上市公司为样本,本文不同佑计方法的实证结果均表明企业的债务水平越高,员工劳动生产率越低.在其他因素不变的情况下,企业的财务困境加剧了债务对员工劳动生产率的不利影响;债务对员工劳动生产率的负作用在人力资本依赖度高的公司以及在外部就业环境好的地区更加显著.对于债务与员工劳动生产率作用的中介效应分析与分位数回归结果也说明债务上升可能导致企业人力资本投资下降,对员工劳动生产率产生不利影响.研究为我国“去杠杆”经济政策提供了微观企业层面的经验证据.     

中国与东盟国家双向投资关系分析及对策研究

东南亚国家与中国山水相连,文化习俗相近,双方商业合作和友好往来历史悠久,随着中国与东盟经济的快速发展以及自贸区的启动,双方合作空间进一步拓展,发展前景将更加广阔。投资合作是中国—东盟经贸合作的强大推动力,这得益于中国—东盟自由贸易区《投资协议》开始实施,双方开放投资市场,改善投资环境,降低贸易壁垒,为双方企业创造更多投资机会。     

体育产业的投融资环境建设:市场及参与者

本文运用文献资料法,数理统计法对投融资环境、产业投资基金等体育产业发展的投融资因素进行了分析与讨论。统计分析表明:投融资环境的有效发展是促进经济发展的主要方面。促进资本市场的建设及发展产业投资基金对于体育产业的发展来说是至关重要的。通过市场建设及产业投资基金的发展,不仅能通过增加流动性提高体育资产的价值,也能增加市场对资源的配置效率,有力地促进整个体育产业的发展。     

船舶产业投资基金发展路径研究

文章从我国目前与船舶相关的产业投资基金现状入手,通过分析,揭示了目前我国船舶产业投资基金的问题主要有:投资环境中存在的三大矛盾;未充分吸收和引导民间资本,以及对船舶企业经营管理的参与化程度不高。针对这些问题,提出了我国船舶类产业投资基金发展的步骤和策略。     

新形势下上海引进外资问题研究

基于新形势下上海引进外资出现的新情况、新问题,通过对上海投资环境、定位和区位的具体分析,建立上海吸引高端外资的系统框架,并提出上海在市场开放方面,应扩大外资进入领域,鼓励外资投向"上海制造"、"上海服务"、"上海创造"的高端产业,依次引导外资的产业结构升级;在投资环境方面,应建立统一和可预见的法制环境,完善社会信用制度,以此维护市场的竞争秩序;在市场准入方面,应放宽行业限制,不断调整和优化利用外资结构。     

基于产品生命周期的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型

剩余收益模型（Residual Income Model,RIM）是评估公司权益价值的经典模型,特别地,奥尔森系列剩余收益模型由于可以利用历史财务与会计数据而得到广泛运用。本文在一般剩余收益模型的基础上,运用规范研究、逻辑推理等方法,基于产品生命周期理论,即项目处于产品生命周期的不同阶段时,其净资产收益率不同,在增长期的净资产收益率持续上升,衰退期的净资产收益率持续下降,而成熟期的净资产收益率则围绕行业平均水平波动,从理论上就项目投资价值的评估构建了多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型,并就所构建的多阶段剩余收益项目决策模型进行参数赋值分析。研究结果表明该新构建的决策模型具有较好的理论和运用价值,可以作为一种有效的项目投资决策模型。本文的研究一是拓展了剩余收益模型的应用,从主要用于对公司权益价值的估值拓展至对项目投资决策的评估;二是有利于寻求项目投资决策的价值最大化。     

基于贝叶斯SDM模型的中国城镇居民收入收敛性分析

随着中国经济的高速增长,中国区域间贫富差距也日渐加大,在此背景下对中国城镇居民收入是否收敛进行检验并探究其影响原因十分必要。基于一个包括物质资本和人力资本投入的新古典增长模型,根据中国31个省市的1987—2013年数据,利用SDM模型和贝叶斯MCMC统计分析方法,研究城镇居民收入的收敛性问题,结果发现:中国城镇居民人均收入具有显著的空间差异,且在1987—2008年为发散、在2008—2013年以及1987—2013年为存在β收敛的变化趋势;物质资本对中国城镇居民收入增长的β收敛具有正向促进作用,而人力资本对其具有反向促进作用,增加物质资本投入有利于缩小地区收入差距,二者的不匹配可能是导致中国收入增长差距的原因。     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.