建立河南省高新技术产业风险投资体系的设想

河南省发展风险投资有十分重要的现实意义。为此,我们要多渠道开辟风险投资来源,实现投资主体多元化;积极发展风险投资基金;鼓励发展风险投资公司;培养既精通金融又懂技术、熟悉实业投资的风险投资专门人才;开拓风险投资保险业务,并创造有利于风险投资的宏观环境。此外,在规范发展河南省风险投资过程中,还应注意将风险投资体系建立在市场经济机制基础上,按市场经济规律运作等问题。     

电信运营商投资效益仿真研究——基于系统动力学视角

针对目前电信运营商投资效益分析方法单一的现状,依据电信运营商投资效益非线性、动态性等特征,运用系统动力学方法构建了电信运营商投资效益仿真模型,对电信运营商投资效益影响因素进行了仿真分析。结果表明网络设备延迟投入、综合造价等对投资效益影响较大,在此基础上,给出了电信运营商在针对投入产出水平和提升效益方面的建议。     

China’s flexible overseas food strategy: food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asia and China in 1990–2015

Using the UN Comtrade database and multiple sources of agricultural investment data, this paper outlines the emerging patterns of food trade and agricultural investment between Southeast Asian countries and China. The paper shows that China has adopted a flexible overseas food strategy. First, China has increased food export and shifted its food trade with Southeast Asia from a dependent relationship towards a complementary relationship at the regional level in recent years. Second, China tends to adapt to the existing conditions of food production and trade in Southeast Asian countries instead of fundamentally altering them. Finally, Chinese overseas agricultural investment is less driven by domestic food demand but more oriented for profit making, and this gives it flexibility in diversifying investment. An adequate understanding of China’s flexible food strategy in bilateral and multilateral relationships holds implications for global food security.     

A Bayesian sequential design with binary outcome

Several researchers have proposed solutions to control type I error rate in sequential designs. The use of Bayesian sequential design becomes more common; however, these designs are subject to inflation of the type I error rate. We propose a Bayesian sequential design for binary outcome using an alpha‐spending function to control the overall type I error rate. Algorithms are presented for calculating critical values and power for the proposed designs. We also propose a new stopping rule for futility. Sensitivity analysis is implemented for assessing the effects of varying the parameters of the prior distribution and maximum total sample size on critical values. Alpha‐spending functions are compared using power and actual sample size through simulations. Further simulations show that, when total sample size is fixed, the proposed design has greater power than the traditional Bayesian sequential design, which sets equal stopping bounds at all interim analyses. We also find that the proposed design with the new stopping for futility rule results in greater power and can stop earlier with a smaller actual sample size, compared with the traditional stopping rule for futility when all other conditions are held constant. Finally, we apply the proposed method to a real data set and compare the results with traditional designs.     

基于贝叶斯SDM模型的中国城镇居民收入收敛性分析

随着中国经济的高速增长,中国区域间贫富差距也日渐加大,在此背景下对中国城镇居民收入是否收敛进行检验并探究其影响原因十分必要。基于一个包括物质资本和人力资本投入的新古典增长模型,根据中国31个省市的1987—2013年数据,利用SDM模型和贝叶斯MCMC统计分析方法,研究城镇居民收入的收敛性问题,结果发现:中国城镇居民人均收入具有显著的空间差异,且在1987—2008年为发散、在2008—2013年以及1987—2013年为存在β收敛的变化趋势;物质资本对中国城镇居民收入增长的β收敛具有正向促进作用,而人力资本对其具有反向促进作用,增加物质资本投入有利于缩小地区收入差距,二者的不匹配可能是导致中国收入增长差距的原因。     

Investment model predictions of workplace ostracism on K–12 teachers’ commitment to their schools and the profession of teaching

The purpose of this study was to determine how the ostracism of K-12 teachers influences their commitment to their schools and commitment to the teaching profession. The investment model was used to situate ostracism as a predictor of teacher commitment. Participants were 200 full-time K-12 teachers who completed a survey assessing their experiences with ostracism at work and investment model variables (i.e., investments, quality of alternatives, satisfaction, and commitment). Results confirmed investment model predictions with teachers’ investments, quality of alternatives, and satisfaction predicting their commitment to their schools and profession. Results of mediation models also demonstrated that controlling for teachers’ investments and quality of alternatives, ostracism predicted commitment indirectly through its effect on satisfaction. This study revealed that teacher commitment is explained by investment model predictions, but after controlling for those predictions, is further explained by ostracism from teacher colleagues.     

SROI in the pay for success context: Are they at odds?

The Pay For Success (PFS) and Social Impact Bond (SIB) movements to date have focused heavily on shorter-term outcomes that can be monetized and show clear savings to government entities. In part, this focus derives from the need to specify contract payments based on a narrow set of well measured outcomes (e.g., avoided days in jail and foster care, decreased use of behavioral health services). Meanwhile efforts to measure the social return on investment (SROI) of interventions have sought to expand the view of relevant outcomes to include domains that lend themselves less clearly to monetization. This paper explores the intersection between these two movements with illustrations from a SIB initiative underway focused on homeless families with children in foster care. Challenges and potential for SROI in a third-party payor environment will be discussed as well as opportunities to better leverage the strengths of both types of initiative.     

Investor commitment to serial entrepreneurs: A multilayer network analysis

Social networks are complex systems composed of interdependent organizations and people with diverse network structures. Understanding network dynamics, such as exchange commitment, requires a methodological toolkit that does not assume away complexity. In this study, we extend a technique for analyzing longitudinal, multilayer network data called network alignment. We introduce a novel metric – intersect proportions – for analyzing similarity between divergent graphs. We demonstrate the application of network alignment and intersect proportions to the context of investor commitment to startups and entrepreneurs. Using this technique, we are able to disentangle exchange commitment across complex networks.     

“Empowerment” as efficiency and participation: gender in responsible agricultural investment principles

Amidst global concern over the state of transnational large-scale agricultural investments, several efforts have been made to set global standards for “responsible agricultural investment.” While these efforts have received mixed reviews from the international community, very little attention has been paid to the gendered language of these principles. Through examining two separate sets of agricultural investment principles – one created by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, the International Fund for Agricultural Development and the World Bank, and the other by the United Nations Committee on World Food Security – this article finds that, despite different processes and participants in the creation of these principles, they nonetheless share a language of “empowerment” targeted at women and marginalized groups. However, in contrast to early feminist discourses of empowerment, these principles instead perpetuate the notion that empowerment is to be found through efficiency, productivity and participation in land and labor markets. This article takes a critical look at this language of economic empowerment in each set of principles, and points to the dangers of equating efficiency, productivity and participation with feminist empowerment. By not acknowledging the broader gender dynamics of agricultural governance and markets, these discourses risk deepening existing inequalities rather than moving toward meaningful social change.     

新形势下上海引进外资问题研究

基于新形势下上海引进外资出现的新情况、新问题,通过对上海投资环境、定位和区位的具体分析,建立上海吸引高端外资的系统框架,并提出上海在市场开放方面,应扩大外资进入领域,鼓励外资投向"上海制造"、"上海服务"、"上海创造"的高端产业,依次引导外资的产业结构升级;在投资环境方面,应建立统一和可预见的法制环境,完善社会信用制度,以此维护市场的竞争秩序;在市场准入方面,应放宽行业限制,不断调整和优化利用外资结构。