The geographic distribution of gaming machine proceeds in New Zealand

ABSTRACT

Within NZ gambling and its associated harms are well-researched topics. However, most studies to date have relied upon the use of survey methodology or have focused on individual regions. In this paper we distribute gaming machine proceeds (GMP) from gaming venues to the surrounding localities in order to derive estimates of GMP per capita. It is hoped these estimates will enable the trusts who operate the electronic gaming machines (EGMs), and who are responsible for reinvesting a proportion of proceeds back into the community, to more accurately target funding towards the areas most affected by the harms of EGM gambling. Our estimates of GMP per capita also provide a means of assessing the criterion validity of the recently developed Dynamic Deprivation Index. Furthermore, although it is well known that Māori and Pacific Island populations have a higher incidence of problem gambling, our results imply that when controlling for socio-economic deprivation and the geographic location of EGMs the associations between ethnicity and GMP per capita are weak. From a policy perspective, this suggests the most effective way of limiting the harms of EGM gambling on these populations is to place tighter controls on the number of venues within their communities.     

Using machine learning to identify early predictors of adolescent emotion regulation development

As 20% of adolescents develop emotion regulation difficulties, it is important to identify important early predictors thereof. Using the machine learning algorithm SEM-forests, we ranked the importance of (87) candidate variables assessed at age 13 in predicting quadratic latent trajectory models of emotion regulation development from age 14 to 18. Participants were 497 Dutch families. Results indicated that the most important predictors were individual differences (e.g., in personality), aspects of relationship quality and conflict behaviors with parents and peers, and internalizing and externalizing problems. Relatively less important were demographics, bullying, delinquency, substance use, and specific parenting practices—although negative parenting practices ranked higher than positive ones. We discuss implications for theory and interventions, and present an open source risk assessment tool, ERRATA.     

Response-adaptive trial designs with accelerated Thompson sampling

In a clinical trial, sometimes it is desirable to allocate as many patients as possible to the best treatment, in particular, when a trial for a rare disease may contain a considerable portion of the whole target population. The Gittins index rule is a powerful tool for sequentially allocating patients to the best treatment based on the responses of patients already treated. However, its application in clinical trials is limited due to technical complexity and lack of randomness. Thompson sampling is an appealing approach, since it makes a compromise between optimal treatment allocation and randomness with some desirable optimal properties in the machine learning context. However, in clinical trial settings, multiple simulation studies have shown disappointing results with Thompson samplers. We consider how to improve short-run performance of Thompson sampling and propose a novel acceleration approach. This approach can also be applied to situations when patients can only be allocated by batch and is very easy to implement without using complex algorithms. A simulation study showed that this approach could improve the performance of Thompson sampling in terms of average total response rate. An application to a redesign of a preference trial to maximize patient's satisfaction is also presented.     

超精密机床的发展及其关键技术

本文根据作者长期从事超精密机床研制的实践经验，并在翔实资料的基础上，叙述国内外超精密机床的发展过程和现状，以及设计超精密机床所遇到的关键技术及其解决途径．     

刘邦施行过楚爵制己有实证

刘邦施行过楚爵制己有实证朱绍侯二十级军功爵制是秦汉政权共行的爵位制度。《汉书》卷十九《百官公卿表》有明确的记载：“爵一级曰公士、二上造、三簪、四不更、五大夫、六官大夫、七公大夫、八公乘、九五大夫、十左庶长、十一右庶长、十二左更、十三中更、十四右更、十...     

基于支持向量机的传感器非线性误差校正

提出了一种用支持向量机校正传感器非线性误差的原理和方法。该算法只依据样本就可以正确辩识传感器逆模型特征,而不需关于逆模型函数形式的任何先验知识,并将原问题转化为一个凸二次优化问题,能够保证找到的极值解就是全局最优解,具有较好的泛化能力。通过对电容式湿敏传感器误差校正的应用表明:该算法可取得较好的效果。     

网络个人信贷大数据风险控制

风险控制是网络个人信贷中的关键点,但网络个人信贷存在额度小和规模经营的特征,使得传统风险控制手段难于实施。大数据技术为网络个人信贷风险控制提供了有效的解决方案。本文描绘了网络个人信贷大数据风险控制的基本流程,介绍了各个主要环节中大数据技术的应用,强调了全面风险控制的理念。     

Efficient estimation and model selection in large graphical models

We develop a computationally efficient method to determine the interaction structure in a multidimensional binary sample. We use an interaction model based on orthogonal functions, and give a result on independence properties in this model. Using this result we develop an efficient approximation algorithm for estimating the parameters in a given undirected model. To find the best model, we use a heuristic search algorithm in which the structure is determined incrementally. We also give an algorithm for reconstructing the causal directions, if such exist. We demonstrate that together these algorithms are capable of discovering almost all of the true structure for a problem with 121 variables, including many of the directions.