A Method for Computing the Fraction of Attributable Risk Related to Climate Damages

The recent decision of the U.S. Supreme Court on the regulation of CO₂ emissions from new motor vehicles^{( 1 )} shows the need for a robust methodology to evaluate the fraction of attributable risk from such emissions. The methodology must enable decisionmakers to reach practically relevant conclusions on the basis of expert assessments the decisionmakers see as an expression of research in progress, rather than as knowledge consolidated beyond any reasonable doubt.^{( 2,3,4 )} This article presents such a methodology and demonstrates its use for the Alpine heat wave of 2003. In a Bayesian setting, different expert assessments on temperature trends and volatility can be formalized as probability distributions, with initial weights (priors) attached to them. By Bayesian learning, these weights can be adjusted in the light of data. The fraction of heat wave risk attributable to anthropogenic climate change can then be computed from the posterior distribution. We show that very different priors consistently lead to the result that anthropogenic climate change has contributed more than 90% to the probability of the Alpine summer heat wave in 2003. The present method can be extended to a wide range of applications where conclusions must be drawn from divergent assessments under uncertainty.     

气候冲击、海外白银输入与社会动乱——来自清代华北平原的经验证据

为研究气候冲击与海外白银输入是否是导致近代传统农业经济社会发生动荡并走向衰落的重要原因,运用历史计量学方法,对华北平原地区气候冲击、海外白银输入与社会动乱进行分析。研究发现,海外白银输入对清代的经济社会具有双重影响:从海外输入白银存量、流量来看,它具有扩充市场化与商业化水平,有助于社会稳定的正面作用;但由于白银输入所引发的银铜比价紊乱却对社会稳定产生了负面冲击;气候冲击对社会稳定的影响未得到验证,说明导致传统中国走向衰落的因素可能更多地来自经济金融因素,而非直接源自气候冲击。这些结论对理解气候和海外白银两大冲击下的清王朝衰落机制提供了计量经济学证据。     

基于多主体建模分析的银行间网络系统性风险研究

本文基于多主体建模分析了银行间核心-边缘网络的系统性风险。模型假设银行通过最优投资组合配置,在流动性和资本约束前提下谋求利润最大化。通过建立银行间市场交易环境的仿真模型,依据银行行为决策动态形成资产负债表与银行间网络敞口的数据,评估金融监管政策在银行间市场的实施效应。同时,引入不同网络结构模型加以对比分析,发现尽管核心-边缘银行间网络体系比无标度网络更易遭受共同冲击和传染风险,但当处于金融困境时,在宏观审慎管理政策机制作用下,核心-边缘网络体系比其他结构网络表现出更强的恢复力特性。     

析新浪潮导演徐克电影艺术创作思想

20世纪70年代,受法国“新浪潮”运动的影响,香港电影开始变革,出现了一批区别于传统的电影创作思想,带领大众进入这个历程的是一群当时从国外电影学院毕业后在香港工作的电影人.徐克是其中最有影响的人物之一.香港电影在80年代终于实现了现代化和国际化.至今他的艺术创作思想还影响着我们.     

Towards ‘New Emotional Movements’? A Comparative Exploration into a Specific Movement Type

In this article we broaden the scope of earlier research that established a theoretical specificity for the Belgian ‘White March’ and ‘White Movement’, by comparing them to three similar movements and mobilizations that were also triggered by random violence. The comparisons suggest that we are dealing with a new type of social movement and mobilization, preliminarily referred to as ‘new emotional movements’. The three other cases under study are the ‘Snowdrop Campaign’ in the UK, the ‘Million Mom March’ in the US and the ‘Movement against Senseless Violence’ in the Netherlands. Four important features seem to characterize all cases: the central role of emotions and victimization in the mobilization and development of the movement; broad elite support; organizational weakness; and extensive media support. We distinguish two sub-types of new emotional movements: (1) an instrumental variant with clear-cut aims and demands; and (2) an identity variant with displays of solidarity and compassion as the main constitutive elements. In both cases the initiators lack prior organizational experience and the absence of mobilizing organizations is compensated for by mass media support. In the instrumental sub-type neither the victims nor their relatives take the initiative but lend support and give approval to amateur entrepreneurs. The main mobilizing emotion appears to be fear about the possibility of personal suffering, and this emotion is reflected in the formulation of clear-cut demands for the future prevention of similar events. This instrumentality results in elite support being considerably broad, yet partisan. In contrast, the victims themselves take the initiative in the identity variant, causing the movement to remain more or less without specific demands but ensuring a broad support that is not bounded by party lines.     

The Changing Role of the Labour Market within the EMU: the Case of Slovenia

The paper conceptualizes changes in the labour market and suggests labour market policies/reforms after Slovenia has joined the European Monetary Union. The loss of monetary sovereignty implies that in case of an external shock the labour market is burdened by a large amount of the adjustment process. But to increase flexibility of the labour market requires politically unpopular reforms. At the moment, Slovenia is faced with high inflation and a rigid labour market, which is also a key element of its low competitiveness. The reforms were halted under the pressure of their unpopularity. The paper, although concentrating on Slovenia, has general implications since the experiences of the newcomer to EMU are significant for other transition economies which are expected to follow the same path.

新冠肺炎疫情下的餐饮业：冲击与分化

新冠肺炎疫情对我国消费行业造成极大冲击,但也为消费行业线上业务的发展创造了新机遇。以餐饮业为研究对象,采用菜么么SaaS云餐饮管理系统16 508家餐饮门店2019年12月8日至2020年7月31日的数据,使用描述性统计分阶段刻画新冠疫情对餐饮业的影响,并运用向量自回归方法实证检验新冠肺炎疫情对餐饮业的冲击及疫情期间外卖业务与餐饮整体间的相互影响关系。研究发现,此次疫情对餐饮业的影响具有阶段性和异质性特征,生存时间长的餐饮主体抗风险能力更强;疫情期间,以外卖业务为代表的线上餐饮服务对餐饮业起到了有力补充,并在后疫情时期仍表现强劲。为此,餐饮业应拓展外卖市场,餐饮企业应有效提升自身抗风险能力并实现应急管理常态化。     

经验模式分解在QRS波群和T波检测中的应用

针对未经预处理的心电信号中QRS波群和T波,提出一种基于经验模式分解的检测算法。该方法首先采用结合端点延拓的经验模式分解方法对信号进行分解,然后通过适当选择分解后的固有模态函数和残余分量,不使用经验阈值能得到准确的检测结果。利用MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database中心电数据检测表明,QRS波群的检测率达到99%以上,T波的正确识别率也获得较大的提高。该算法中提出的端点延拓方法能有效地减少使用经验模式分解的次数,提高检测的实时性,具有较好的应用前景。     

跨文化交际中的文化回归冲击现象

跨文化交际始于寄居者对东道国文化的适应,而终结于回归者对本土文化的再融入。学界对跨文化适应,尤其是文化冲击或休克现象的研究深入,文献丰富。但对于文化回归者再次融入本土文化所经历的文化冲击研究不足。与文化冲击现象类似,文化回归冲击或休克现象是回归者对本土文化在适应过程中出现的生理、心里障碍。寄居者在东道国经历一定程度的文化适应或影响,当他们回国时对本土文化会产生不适应感或不认同感,甚至出现文化休克症状。文化回归冲击现象由众多因素形成,文化回归冲击过程分不同阶段,而不同性格的回归者也表现出不同的文化回归冲击症状。     

储层模型正演模拟及AVO 特征研究

为了在多波地震资料解释过程中解决多波信息识别难的问题,基于弹性波正演技术,针对某油田勘探区块的实际储层地质模型,采用高阶交错网格差分技术正演模拟非零偏炮集多波地震记录,并经多波资料处理,得到纵波和转换波CMP 和CCP 叠前含AVA 的动校正道集及叠加剖面。在已知模型的AVA 计算、模型层位参数与正演纵、横波波场关系的基础上,对比研究了正演记录中各储层的纵波和转换波对应关系。对比分析结果表明,数值模拟结果与AVA 分析结果吻合,同一储层的纵波和转换波波场响应有明显差异。