Health Risk Assessment After Decontamination of the Beaches Polluted by the Wrecked ERIKA Tanker

Following the wreck of the oil tanker ERIKA off the north-west coast of France in December 1999, cleaning up of the beaches involved considerable work, which in any case could not be perfect. This raised the question of the short- and long-term health risks for the future bathers related to the toxicity of the remaining oil polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). This risk assessment study was conducted to help health authorities plan risk management policies and inform the public. Thirty-six beaches were selected, representing a sample of the most frequently encountered topographic and beach usage situations; seven "control" beaches, unspoiled by ERIKA, were also investigated. Samples of water and sand were taken from each site, as well as from the surface of rocks. The 16 PAHs selected by the U.S. EPA were quantified in each environment. Several scenarios of exposure were contemplated: (1) a child between 2 and 4 years accidentally ingesting a small ball of fuel, (2) a child daily exposed throughout his holiday-time stay, (3) an adult (including a pregnant woman) spending his/her holidays on the coast, (4) an adult working on the beach, (5) and an adult practicing water sports. Among the available and significant toxicological values, the most conservative ones were selected for computing risks. The sand and water, after decontamination, were slightly polluted (respectively, 7.8 microg/kg and 23.3 ng/l of total 16 PAHs), with values similar to those found in the control beaches. By contrast, the rocky areas in some places were still highly polluted (up to 23 mg/kg on the surface layer). No lethal risk was found for a young child who had accidentally ingested a small ball of fuel. The life-long excess risks for skin cancer and for all other cancers were about 10-5 in scenarios including contact with the polluted rocks. In all other cases, excess risks were considerably lower. The hazard quotient for teratogenic effects was very small, except in scenarios where pregnant women would walk among rocks containing high pollution levels. In conclusion, exposure was mainly associated with polluted water among children, and with spoiled rocks for adults. Despite uncertainties, mainly dealing with the prediction of long-term risks following a short-term exposure, this study showed that beaches where pollution was no longer visible after decontamination did not entail any significant health risks and could be opened to the public.     

Who Lives Near Coke Plants and Oil Refineries? An Exploration of the Environmental Inequity Hypothesis

Facility-specific information on pollution was obtained for 36 coke plants and 46 oil refineries in the United States and matched with information on populations surrounding these 82 facilities. These data were analyzed to determine whether environmental inequities were present, whether they were more economic or racial in nature, and whether the racial composition of nearby communities has changed significantly since plants began operations.The Census tracts near coke plants have a disproportionate share of poor and nonwhite residents. Multivariate analyses suggest that existing inequities are primarily economic in nature. The findings for oil refineries are not strongly supportive of the environmental inequity hypothesis. Rank ordering of facilities by race, poverty, and pollution produces limited (although not consistent) evidence that the more risky facilities tend to be operating in communities with above-median proportions of nonwhite residents (near coke plants) and Hispanic residents (near oil refineries). Over time, the racial makeup of many communities near facilities has changed significantly, particularly in the case of coke plants sited in the early 1900s. Further risk-oriented studies of multiple manufacturing facilities in various industrial sectors of the economy are recommended.The authors are all affiliated with the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis     

创造新优势参与大竞争--四川构建中国西部硅谷的对策研究

本文侧重阐明了建设中国西部硅谷的六条对策性建议一是拓展创新创业的广阔空间;二是加大法治环境的建设力度;三是疏通风险产业发展的融资渠道;四是增大支持性设施和支持性基础理论研究以及共用技术开发等政府"公共品”的供给;五是不断优化能适应和促进网络经济发展的政府职能;六是培育有利于创新创业的文化氛围和社区环境.     

Local volunteers respond to the Rena oil spill in Maketū, New Zealand

Following the MV Rena grounding and oil spill in the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand in October 2011, the Māori community of Maketū were quick to respond to the arrival of oil on their beaches. They asserted their rangatiratanga by establishing their marae as a base and successfully coordinated a clean-up by more than 450 volunteers, feeding these volunteers every day. We interviewed 11 clean-up leaders and volunteers in Maketū to gather information about how the oil spill affected people in the community and how they ensured the success of their clean-up efforts. Many volunteers returned to help with the clean-up day after day over several weeks. Concepts of kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga underpinned the work of the Maketū clean-up organisers. Participants attributed the success of the Maketū clean-up to the speed with which they responded, the support they received from their community and local businesses, and their local knowledge.     

基于非参多元Expectile模型的原油价格风险测度研究—宏观不确定性视角

当下政治经济环境存在诸多不确定性,原油价格随着不确定性的增加而大幅波动,因此在当前不确定性环境中建立一个有效的风险预测模型具有重要的实际意义。本文基于非参多元Expectile模型,选取2010年1月5日至2020年1月6日的美国西德克萨斯原油价格的日度数据,构建同时包含地缘政治风险、经济政策不确定性等六个宏观不确定性变量的原油价格风险预测模型。此外,引入APARCH模型和基于蒙特卡罗方法的GARCH模型,比较以上三个模型预测能力。最后,基于预测的VaR值计算调整的Sharpe比率。结论表明,整体上,非参多元Expectile模型能较好处理多个宏观变量包含的信息,具有更高的预测能力。在不确定性事件叠加发生的时期预测表现依然优于其他模型,减少了不确定性增加导致原油市场波动幅度增加带来的风险,具有更强的稳定性。因此,在经济转型的关键时期,本研究可为政策制定者和监管当局面临不确定性上升环境下建立有效的原油价格风险预测模型提供参考,制定应对政策防范化解风险,同时也为投资者在当前复杂的国际形势下提供预测参考,尽量规避损失同时获取收益。     

近代湘西桐油贸易研究

湘西桐油贸易在中国历史上曾经获得了巨大发展，尤其是晚清至民国时期，其发展尤其引人注目。近代湘西桐油贸易可分为初步发展、短暂繁荣和衰落三个时期。本文就此三个时期展开论述，分析湘西桐油贸易发展的情况及其兴衰的原因。     

料场油管清洗及保护技术

料场油管露天堆放 ,在存放期间受大气影响易锈蚀 ,不仅影响油管质量 ,而且严重影响油管的使用性能 .本文研究一种新的涂保护剂及配方 ,介绍了油管保护新技术 ,其缓蚀率达到 96 %以上     

塔中奥陶系原油的运移方向研究

油气运移方向的确定对油气的进一步勘探具有重要意义。在分析前人资料的基础上，认为塔中隆起在加里东期至海西中期并非存在西北高、东南低的格局，而是总体上表现为东南高、西北低的特征；且塔中存在两个较高部位：一个位于塔中断垒带西段的中1井区附近；另一个为塔中的最高部位，位于塔中断垒带东段的塔中1井附近。油源对比表明，塔中奥陶系的原油大多来自中-上奥陶统的源岩。结合古构造背景的特征，对源自中-上奥陶统原油的充注方向研究表明，塔中北斜坡至少存在两个方向的油气运移：一为从塔中西北部向东南部的较高部位运移充注，二为从塔中西北部向中1井区附近的较高部位运移；塔中南斜坡塔中52井、中4井的油气来自塔中南侧的塘古巴斯凹陷，并经历了相对较短的运移距离，进一步证明了塘古巴斯凹陷中-上奥陶统的烃源岩具有较好的生油气潜力。     

低闭合油藏油水同层储层含水饱和度新模型

G地区P油层由于闭合高度低，油水分异差，存在大量的油水同层，且该区油水同层与油层的物性、电性相近，使得传统的利用电阻率和孔隙度计算含水饱和度的方法失效；加上工区开发过程中采取多层合试，单层试油且产液性质为油水同出的层位较少，可供选择进行油水同层饱和度建模的样本较少，使得该区油水同层饱和度的准确计算成为储量提交的难点。针对这一问题，提出以少量的密闭取芯井为基础样本，首先应用相渗资料建立起产水率与含水饱和度关系，然后外推到常规取芯井获得含水饱和度的补充样本，进而通过优选孔隙度、电阻率比值等建模参数，构建了适用于研究区油水同层的饱和度计算新模型，通过统计，其平均相对误差仅为3.59%，满足了储量计算的精度要求。     

原油价格变动对中国基础工业收益的影响——基于格兰杰因果关系检验的实证研究

以2006年1月4日-2014年7月31日的日数据为样本,采用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)、非线性检验、线性格兰杰因果关系检验、非线性格兰杰因果关系检验,选取电力及公用事业、钢铁、机械、基础化工、煤炭、原油石化六大基础工业,从行业角度研究原油价格对中国经济的影响关系。实证结果表明:原油价格变化率与钢铁、煤炭、石油石化行业存在显著的双向线性格兰杰因果关系,机械、基础化工到原油价格变化率存在显著的单向线性格兰杰因果关系,电力及公共事业与原油价格不存在线性格兰杰因果关系;原油价格变化率与6个基础工业存在显著地双向非线性因果关系。