Discrete time modelling of disease incidence time series by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Summary.  A stochastic discrete time version of the susceptible–infected–recovered model for infectious diseases is developed. Disease is transmitted within and between communities when infected and susceptible individuals interact. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to make inference about these unobserved populations and the unknown parameters of interest. The algorithm is designed specifically for modelling time series of reported measles cases although it can be adapted for other infectious diseases with permanent immunity. The application to observed measles incidence series motivates extensions to incorporate age structure as well as spatial epidemic coupling between communities.     

Social identities and political cleavages: the role of political context

Summary. Using a novel method, the paper investigates the influence of social group identities on attitudes and on voting in a variety of political contexts. Examining the major regions of Britain, Canada and the USA, we find considerable national and regional diversity in the nature of social cleavages. For example, social class and race had widely different effects across societies, but within societies their effects on attitudes and on voting were very similar. However, despite that, age and religion had a similar effect on attitudes across societies; the effects on voting varied considerably. The significant within-country differences underline the importance of using region, rather than country, as the unit of analysis. More importantly, these results highlight the role of political context, especially competing cleavages and the structure of party competition, in the establishment of politically relevant social cleavages.     

IT教学中教学方法的探讨

教学方法是实现教学目的所采用的途径和手段。信息产业的高速发展要求教育者不断改进教学方法。针对目前 IT教学的情况 ,本文对教学方法从七个方面进行了探讨 :考试的重点、理论课程与实验课程的安排、教材的更新、学生创新能力的培养、教学活动的方法、与学生的交流、教学模式的多样化     

工厂供电课程教学方法探讨

工厂供电课程存在着教学任务肾、课时少的现象,按传统的讲授法进行教学,会出现教不好、学不透的两难境地。为避免此类现象的发生,提出了引导法、角色转换法、对比论证法、现代教育法等多种教学方法。经过教学实践证明,这些方法能有效地提高学生的学习效率,促进学生综合能力的提高。     

知识经济与内部审计

从四个方面阐述了知识经济对内部审计的影响 ,论述了在新的经济环境下应采取的审计方法     

两种价值取向与三段式考核模式——思想道德修养课考核方法浅探

思想道德修养课在考核方法上存在两种不同的价值取向 :纯粹考核的价值取向和服务学生的价值取向。而三段式考核模式正是倡导服务学生的价值取向 ,从而达到考核的真正目的     

走出餐饮经营管理的误区

近年来中国餐饮业虽发展迅速,但不少经营者由于采用不科学的经营管理手段而走入种种误区,以致面对激烈的市场竞争而困难重重。文章在分析餐饮经营管理中存在的问题的同时,提出了积极应对的建议。     

浅谈对企业偷逃增值税的识别及审计对策

市场经济体制的建立和完善需要一个过程。在这一过程中,出现了一些企业偷逃增值税的现象,这不但直接破坏了国家的税收政策和税收管理,而且严重干扰了社会经济秩序。这里针对这些企业在经营中所运用的虚增进项税额、少计销项税额,或者通过账外经营和转移价外收入等不同的偷逃增值税手段进行分析,归纳总结出了其识别的方法,并在此基础上提出了相应的审计对策。     

对降低中国农业生产风险的方式探讨

农业生产领域因其要受气候条件、自然灾害、技术的改变、信息的不完全、国家政策的变动,有着不同于其他行业的特殊风险性,而我国农户大多又是风险规避者,所以,如何降低农业生产中的风险,及如何看待降低风险的方式在中国的实效性问题,成为目前解决“三农”问题关键所在。     

浅谈钢琴教学中教材的选择及授课方法

《巴斯蒂安钢琴基础教程》从整体教学观念出发,强调培养儿童理解音乐、喜欢音乐和创造音乐的综合能力;授课时对孩子心理的重视以及充分调动孩子的直观形象思维。