粮食产量时间序列的单分形检验及R/S预测

为探讨中国粮食产量的变化规律及趋势预测问题,采用配分函数方法,判定了1949年以来粮食总产量时间序列的单分形特征,并利用分析方法确定一个代表粮食产量变化趋势的时间序列的幂,从而得到预测粮食产量变化趋势的分形方法。根据历史资料,用此方法对中国粮食产量的变化趋势进行了短期预测,得到了变化方向上的一个估计结果。     

A strategy for third-party logistics systems: A case analysis using the blue ocean strategy

One of today's most frequently discussed topics in the business world is how to escape from the intense Red Ocean and how to create an uncontested Blue Ocean. However, because there are few practical guidelines available on this topic, we will introduce a case study of a third-party logistics (3PL) provider, CJ-Global Logistics Service (CJ-GLS), to show how it aspires to be a leader in the newly introduced 3PL industry in South Korea. CJ-GLS is a latecomer in the logistics industry, and its resources, such as the number of trucks and warehouses, are relatively small in comparison to those of established companies. But, it has achieved a distinct competitive advantage through innovative information technology (i.e., RFID—radio frequency identification), which has enabled it to create an uncontested market space, electronic logistics business. One remarkable fact about CJ-GLS is that its swift growth comes not from attracting competitors’ customers from the existing Red Ocean market but from creating a Blue Ocean market (3PL market), which previously existing incumbents ignored, and also from constructing a new business model founded on a RFID-based, ubiquitous-oriented 3PL system. Analyzed through a Four Actions Framework and characterized as Blue Ocean, this case study provides valuable information on how a company reinforces its competitive advantage from the Red Ocean while it transitions into a Blue Ocean by utilizing advanced information communication technologies.     

上犹社溪方言实词的兼类与活用

当语言中的一个新词诞生以后 ,只要表示与之相关的动作变化或状态的动词或形容词没有产生 ,就很可能直接用这个词来表示这种相关的动作变化或状态。因此 ,词的兼类是各种语言或方言、或各个不同时期的同一语言中常见的现象。在语言的发展史上 ,尽可能减少词的兼类现象 ,特别是通过形态变化等手段把兼类的词分化为不同的词 ,还有些词存在活用现象 ,显得很有地方特色。从此角度说 ,客家方言保留着较多的古语痕迹。     

频率与投射在二语习得中的互补性

以频率为中心的二语习得理论认为,输入频率是影响第二语言习得顺序的重要因素,并对语言结构的能产性起着决定作用。投射假设则认为,语言习得并不完全以语言输入为基础,学习者对某个语言参数的习得往往蕴含着对另外一个相关参数的习得。频率和投射从不同的侧面揭示了第二语言习得的特点,在教学中恰当地利用这种互补有利于促进语言习得的进程,提高教学效率。     

The Division of Household Labor in Germany and Israel

We compare the patterns of household division of labor in Germany and Israel—two countries that share key elements of the corporatist welfare regime but differ in their gender regimes—and evaluate several hypotheses using data from the 2002 International Social Survey Program. Although time constraints and relative resources affect the division of household labor and women’s housework in both societies, we find that in Germany the gender order of household labor is more rigid, whereas in Israel the spouses’ linked labor market status exerts distinctive effects. We also find significant relationships between gender ideology and the division of household labor. We discuss the theoretical advantages of approaching the comparative study of gender inequality from the vantage point of family and gender regimes.     

长三角区域合作建设国际制造中心的制度设计

各自为政的行政体制阻碍了长江三角洲经济一体化。用行政机制来调整长三角地区间的行政摩擦,有悖于一体化的实质。打造长三角国际制造中心,上海要大力发展现代生产者服务业和高科技产业,江浙要用产业集聚方式推进制造业崛起;只有实现长三角发展机制的一体化融合,才能实现大范围的规模经济和范围经济;学习欧共体务实的经验,区域合作要从具体的项目做起;关键是要实现长三角区域市场竞争规则的统一。     

民族地区构建和谐社会应加强对传统多元生态文化的利用和改造

“人与自然和谐相处”是社会主义和谐社会的六个基本特征之一,民族地区构建社会主义和谐社会必须考虑到传统多元生态文化的功能。在开放的、以市场经济为主导的现代社会生态经济系统下,传统多元生态文化的约束力远不如在传统社会生态经济系统中那么有效、广泛。民族地区只有在维护自身生态经济系统可持续运作的基础上,进一步加强对传统多元生态文化的利用和改造,才能充分发挥生态文化的协调功能。因此,民族地区应当在继续维护传统生态文化的多元性、科学性和合理性的同时,根据现行社会生态经济系统的特征,把其改造成为“强生态文化”,构建以科学发展观为基础,具有较强约束力的、适应现行社会生态经济系统的、协调人与自然关系的,包括精神、物质、制度层面的整体文化体系。     

Joint impact of multiple observations on a subset of variables in multiple linear regression

In multiple linear regression analysis, each observation affects the fitted regression equation differently and has varying influences on the regression coefficients of the different variables. Chatterjee & Hadi (1988) have proposed some measures such as DSSE_ij (Impact on Residual Sum of Squares of simultaneously omitting the ith observation and the jth variable), F_j (Partial F-test for the jth variable) and F_j(i) (Partial F-test for the jth variable omitting the ith observation) to show the joint impact and the interrelationship that exists among a variable and an observation. In this paper we have proposed more extended form of those measures DSSE_IJ, F_J and F_J(I) to deal with the interrelationships that exist among the multiple observations and a subset of variables by monitoring the effects of the simultaneous omission of multiple variables and multiple observations.     

横向塞曼稳频He－Ne激光器的研究

稳频横向塞曼Ｈｅ－Ｎｅ激光器作为一种新型光源，具有功率大、频差低、易于相位细分的特点，因而能广泛应用于各种精密测量中．本文介绍了我们研制的稳频横向塞曼激光器，实验结果表明，其激光频率稳定度达４．７×１０（－１０），再现性达１．８×１０（－８）．     

A relation for the covariances of order statistics from n independent and non-identically distributed random variables

We derive a simple relation satisfied by the covariances of order statistics in the i.i.d. case and then generalize it to the case when the variables are independent and non-identically distributed. This relation could be employed successfully either to check the calculations or to reduce the amount of direct computations involved in evaluating the covariances of order statistics from an outlier model.