对实施西部大开发战略决策的若干思考

西部大开发是我国跨世纪宏观经济发展的重大决策,具有深远的战略意义.必须把握国际和国内大局的新变动,探索西部民族地区大开发的新思路.西部大开发是一个需要统筹兼顾、长期奋斗的宏大工程,必须坚持若干原则方针;西部大开发事关全局,应该下大力气在政策、体制、资金、人才等方面给予支持,全面规划,分步实施.     

从“口”、“头”看汉语一名多量组合现象

着重从量词选取的历史成因、量词选取的风格色彩以及量词选取的认知机制这3个角度出发,以“口”、“头”(“一口猪”与“一头猪”)为例,探讨汉语一名多量组合现象,从而揭示“处于习惯”的名量组合背后所隐藏的规律和倾向。     

重庆土家族婚俗现状研究

重庆土家族婚俗文化,是巴渝文化的活化石。文章通过田野调查与相关文献研究,探讨土家族婚俗特色及其文化价值,试图为土家族婚俗(这一非物质文化遗产的保护工作)提供一些理性的思考。     

高校后勤人力资源优化配置的原则和措施

如何做到人事制度完善合理与切实有效执行相结合,是高校后勤社会化改革的一项重点和难点。针对现状,提出优化后勤人力资源配置的原则和措施,以期实现高校后勤社会化改革目标,最大限度发挥人的主观性、创造性。     

我国南方民间剪纸的历史、现状与保护策略

南方民间剪纸是中国民间剪纸的一个重要分支,具有独特的文化价值.本文在对南方民间剪纸的历史、现状进行文化审视和归纳梳理的基础上,提出一些保护性开发南方民间剪纸的建议.     

基于单片机的粮仓温度测控系统设计

介绍了一种基于AT89C51单片机的温度测控系统。使用AD590作为温度传感器对粮仓内温度进行监测,实时显示温度。系统对温度的控制合理、有效,具有调试方便、精度高和可靠性好等优点。     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

基于GCRM模型的信用经济资本测度和贷款定价研究

GCRM模型与ASRF模型相比,能给出与经济资本测度目标相一致的资本数量,而现有文献对GCRM模型的到期收益率没有给出明确的刻画,本文则通过假设资产的到期收益率与其信用经济资本相关,得出了基于GCRM模型的信用经济资本测度和贷款定价方法,它能够刻画借款者的违约概率、违约损失率,以及商业银行的风险偏好（目标支付概率）和资本融资成本对经济资本和贷款定价的影响,为商业银行相关领域的决策提供了参考。     

What types of occupations are women entering? : Determinants of changes in female representation: 1970–2000

Although a consistent body of research has demonstrated that occupational segregation is highly consequential for women's economic standing, we know little about the processes that contribute to changes in levels of sex segregation. In this study, we examine those factors that contribute to changes in the percent of women in detailed occupational categories in the United States. Since we are most concerned with the economic consequences of this type of segregation, we analyze a group of high-paying, male-dominated occupations that, if better integrated, would contribute most to earnings equality. We find that occupations to which relatively high percentages of women aspired and occupations that are growing have been experiencing above-average increases in the percentage of women, while occupations characterized by male-stereotyped task profiles have been witnessing below-average increases. Additionally, our results suggest the presence of a ceiling effect: it is easier for women to break into male-dominated occupations initially than to sustain growth. Our analysis suggests that both supply and demand-side explanations provide insight into the processes contributing to increases in the occupations that we examine, although it can be very difficult to distinguish between supply and demand-side elements; indeed they may occur simultaneously.     

智能教育软件《数学实验室之一——立体几何》

有了自动推理功能的教育软件会是什么样子？本文主要介绍智能教育软件《数学实验室之一--立体几何》的总体设计思想,系统结构和功能等。