Reconciliation with the Utility of Chance by Elaborated Outcomes Destroys the Axiomatic Basis of Expected Utility Theory

Expected utility theory does not directly deal with the utility of chance. It has been suggested in the literature (Samuelson, 1952, Markowitz, 1959) that this can be remedied by an approach which explicitly models the emotional consequences which give rise to the utility of chance. We refer to this as the elaborated outcomes approach. It is argued that the elaborated outcomes approach destroys the possibility of deriving a representation theorem based on the usual axioms of expected utility theory. This is shown with the help of an example due to Markowitz. It turns out that the space of conceivable lotteries over elaborated outcomes is too narrow to permit the application of the axioms. Moreover it is shown that a representation theorem does not hold for the example.     

论《左传》“天德合一”的天命观——《左传》预言的本质

本文认为,《左传》“多叙鬼神之事,预言祸福之期”现象的产生不是偶然的,而是尚未脱离神职的史官,或者说与宗教文化有千丝万缕联系的史官文化在探究天(神)人关系时的必然现象。《左传》既大讲鬼神对人的控制,又渲染道德决定人的归宿,本文通过对这一看似矛盾现象的系统分析认为,《左传》通过对鬼神预言结果的道德阐释,以高超的技巧将看似杂乱无章的神秘预言纳入到了一个“天德合一”的模式中,从而建构了一个天命控制人类历史,道德决定人的命运的完整的天命观体系;这种把天命神学纳入历史道德领域的努力,是《左传》作者为解释春秋战国之际的历史变迁而做的理论准备,这种试图以建构体系的方式阐释天人关系、历史规律的尝试也是值得肯定的。     

西夏对外政策的历史考察

:西夏在长期的对外交往中形成了以趋利避害、左右逢源、灵活务实为主要特征的对外政策 ,表现出和平交往与兵戎相见的错综复杂性。西夏的对外政策既是西夏与诸政权间力量对比消长变化的产物 ,又提供了其自身发展壮大和与各强大势力巧妙周旋、长期并存的重要条件 ,同时也给当时北方民族关系和政治格局以深刻影响     

如何看待当今马克思主义哲学的典籍研究

无论是就哲学体系 ,还是就其框架下的主导概念、范畴和问题而言 ,当前哲学界对马克思文本、典籍的发掘堪称中国特色马克思主义哲学建设的一个时代象征。学者们以典籍为基点 ,进而拓展到对马克思主义哲学的内在本质、基本内容、核心精神和在中国的发展的探索 ,并最终把阐释典籍文本的当代意义落实为终极关怀 ,这昭示了当代哲人对历史、对学术的客观精神的追求和对哲学智慧的向往     

对两权分离改革范式的十大实证性批判

两权分离改革范式的根本错误 ,不仅在于理论上缺乏行为分析性 ,更在于在实践中所引发的众多难题 :颠倒了自然人产权奠定法人产权的历史关系 ;没有解决国企所有者缺位的核心问题 ;延误了我国非国有企业的制度建设与全面成长的历史机遇 ;违背了世界经济发展的历史事实和基本趋势 ;没有彻底触动政治体制 ;没有解决不合理的社会关系 ;增大了我国制度变迁与经济发展的交易费用 ,没有解决国企企业家成长的制度问题 ;导致经济发展中短期化行为放大 ;社会资产缺乏理性投向。两权分离改革范式导致中国至今的经济改革走样 ,给经济发展带来现实与潜在的巨大危机与困难     

大城市低收入老人群体状况分析

本文依据在广州的调查数据 ,揭示了低收入老人的群体特征 ,提出制订老龄政策时 ,适当照顾低收入老人 ,同时动员家庭、单位和社会都来积极关心这部分脆弱群体     

From Birth to Death: A Social Monitoring Framework from New Zealand

The paper begins by outlining the development of social indicators work and social monitoring at the national level in New Zealand and comments on how this relates to the international movement. It describes the 'key' indicators/life stage approach developed by the New Zealand Planning Council in the early 1980s. This exercise continues from a university base and the fourth report in the series, entitled Tracking Social Change in New Zealand was published in early 1998. Examples are presented to show how the results can be used to highlight the policy implications of changing social trends.     

Does the availability of child care influence the employment of mothers? Findings from western Germany

There is a vast empirical literature investigating the effects of child care costson female employment. Day-care costs are usually treated as a reduction infemale wages and are supposed to reduce a woman's propensity to participatein the labor market. In this paper we argue that an analysis of the effects ofchild care on the employment of mothers in Germany should focus on theavailability rather than the affordability of care, due to peculiarities of theGerman day-care regime. Our empirical findings cast doubt on the effectivenessof the current German day-care regime. Specifically, we question the extent towhich it enables mothers to participate in the labor market.     

Social Sources of Failure in Education: The Case in East and Southeast Turkey

The efficiency of education in East and Southeast Turkey (E&SE) has long been a subject of debate. Both regions are similar to each other and different from the other regions in terms of economy, culture, ethnic origin, and languages spoken. Sahin (1997) studied the efficiency of education in the E&SE and proposed that illiteracy is significantly the highest in both regions, the female student population is significantly lower, and students are significantly less successful in nationwide general proficiency examinations (OSS and OYS) compared to all the other regions. Social sources of failure were studied in terms of the distinguishing characteristics of both regions, from both practical and theoretical standpoints. The findings indicated inequality of educational opportunity rooted in geographical, economical, social (cultural, linguistic), and political factors.     

对广东省流动人口婚育问题的初探

:广东是我国流动人口最多的省份,流动人口的婚育问题也成为研究的热点之一。本文首先对流动人口作了界定,并分析了广东流动人口的特征及其对婚育行为产生的正面和负面影响,这使计划生育管理面临巨大的压力。文章最后提出一些措施以图化解流动人口的婚育问题带给城市的压力