A randomized controlled trial of a 5-year marriage checkup booster session for a subsample of responder couples

This study examined maintenance and booster effects of a brief couple intervention, the Marriage Checkup (MC), across 5 years. A subsample of 63 couples who benefitted from two previous MCs (responder couples), were randomly assigned to a third MC or control. Before randomization (at 4-years-9-months), the responder sample had maintained small to medium effects on two measures of relationship functioning. After randomization, we found no significant between-group effects. Yet, within-group analyses revealed that while control couples showed flat trajectories in all outcomes after the 4-year-9-months baseline, couples receiving a third MC (at Year 5) reported small to medium improvements in three measures of relationship functioning and maintained follow-up effect in one measure. Findings indicate that couples who initially improved from the MC can maintain some of their improvements over long periods. The potential of boosting such improvements with recurrent MCs is a relevant target for further investigation in larger samples.     

Limited opportunities: Adolescents’ access to social capital in secondary schools in three European countries

While previous research indicates that students benefit from their peers’ resources, little is known about access to social capital in the school context. Therefore, this study examines differential access to social capital – measured by friends’ socioeconomic status (SES), the number of books they have at home, and their reading habits – in secondary schools in Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Relying on a large-scale dataset, I investigate the association between socioeconomic status, minority status, and social capital using complete friendship network information. I argue that social capital access is connected to a two-stage process consisting of school sorting and friendship selection. To differentiate between these two processes, I apply within-between random effects (REWB). The models show that friendship selection is much less relevant for access to social capital than school sorting. Results indicate that while high-SES students have better access to social capital across dimensions, access patterns for minority students are more nuanced.     

Instrumental Variables Estimates of the Effect of Subsidized Training on the Quantiles of Trainee Earnings

This paper reports estimates of the effects of JTPA training programs on the distribution of earnings. The estimation uses a new instrumental variable (IV) method that measures program impacts on quantiles. The quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimator reduces to quantile regression when selection for treatment is exogenously determined. QTE can be computed as the solution to a convex linear programming problem, although this requires first‐step estimation of a nuisance function. We develop distribution theory for the case where the first step is estimated nonparametrically. For women, the empirical results show that the JTPA program had the largest proportional impact at low quantiles. Perhaps surprisingly, however, JTPA training raised the quantiles of earnings for men only in the upper half of the trainee earnings distribution.     

Persistent mind: The effects of information provision on policy preferences

In constitutional states, representatives exchange information, discuss the budget direction and agree on a budget. The agreement is assumed to hold for one fiscal year. To test the validity of this constitutional assumption, we implemented an online panel survey with a randomized conjoint design three times over one year in Japan to track the direction of respondents’ preferences within a multidimensional public policy space. The policy space consisted of spending on education, infrastructure, health insurance, pensions, and poverty relief programs, as well as fiscal retrenchment. Providing information on the poverty rate in the first wave directed respondents’ preferences toward support for poverty relief programs by either increasing or reallocating the budget. The effects persisted in the second wave 5 months later across a diverse range of respondent backgrounds and political positions. By the third wave one year later, the effects had diminished. Once placed in a multidimensional space, information exchange might have a more extended scope than unidimensional approaches have shown. This finding, we believe, can broaden our capability to implement policies for poverty reduction.     

考虑行为外部性的多零售商销售努力激励

构建了制造商通过销售回馈与惩罚契约来对具有公平偏好的零售商群体的销售努力进行激励的计算实验模型。研究了零售商之间的行为外部性对激励效果产生的影响,并将EWA算法引入到制造商动态调整奖励与惩罚力度过程中以改善自身收益,为制造商在多周期激励过程中合理利用零售商间的行为外部性、合理制定奖惩力度提供理论依据。实验结果表明：制造商应采取措施尽量使零售商之间销售行为的外部性保持较低程度;在多周期激励过程中,制造商采用动态激励方式会优于保持奖惩力度不变的静态激励方式;动态调整奖惩力度会极大程度影响被奖励零售商群体的销售努力水平,但并不会影响被惩罚零售商销售努力水平的演化趋势。     

环境规制与城市绿色技术创新：影响机制与空间效应

环境规制的绿色技术创新效应研究具有重要理论价值和现实意义。在有效测度环境规制强度和城市绿色技术创新的基础上,本文选取2005至2020年全国274个地级及以上城市的面板数据,基于异质性效应和空间溢出视角,探究了环境规制对绿色技术进步的影响及其机制。研究结果表明,环境规制显著激励了绿色技术创新,但其边际效应受到城市创新能力的调节作用。在此基础上,本文采用部分线性函数型系数模型进一步考察了环境规制对绿色技术创新的非线性影响。环境规制政策效应存在空间溢出现象,受规制地区环境政策强度提升可以通过地区间产业转移影响其相邻地区的产业结构与工业化进程,推动产业承接地区的经济增长和研发投入扩张,进而提高相邻地区的绿色创新产出。     

基金交易行为与市场波动——基于小波与互谱分析的数据挖掘

本文选取2007～2009年基金十大重仓股数据进行小波分析,研究重仓股在不同阶段波动率的特征———微观层面基金行为对这种波动率的直接动量冲击的影响以及金融市场层面沪深300指数对此波动率的联动性的影响。实证结果发现,基金增仓和持股可以减小股票波动率,但减仓会加大股票波动率,呈现出非对称稳定市场的特性。在金融市场层面分析上,论文应用溢出效应检验互谱分析方法,发现这种波动率主要是由基金持股组合调整造成的,市场波动对个股波动率影响不大,即股票波动率主要是由基金交易行为造成所引致。     

中国股票市场的时变杠杆效应研究——基于随机Copula模型的实证分析

构建随机Copula模型研究了中国股票市场在极端市场条件下的时变杠杆效应.为了解决金融市场中波动率不可直接观测的问题,采用已实现波动率测度作为隐波动率的代理变量,进而运用基于有效重要性抽样的极大似然(EIS-ML)方法估计了随机Copula模型的参数.基于沪深股市数据的实证研究表明:中国股票市场的杠杆效应具有非对称特征,即股市低收益率伴随高波动率,但股市高收益率不一定伴随低波动率;中国股票市场的杠杆效应存在显著的时变性,沪深股市杠杆效应表现出类似的变化趋势;随机Copula模型相比其它Copula模型(静态Copula模型和时变Copula模型)具有更好的数据拟合效果.     

服务的空间扩散: 基于上海迪士尼的实证

体验经济是当代企业服务营销的重要组成,由于服务体验的扩散具有明显的空间效应,本研究通过建立服务扩散的空间溢出模型,在其中定义区域间的相对影响力和易感性,从而准确分离了本地区服务体验扩散和其他地区溢出扩散这两种空间影响效果.研究基于上海迪士尼乐园游客的移动数据,实证测量了迪士尼服务群体的空间扩散效应、省份和区域层次服务扩散的影响力、易感性与溢出效应.结果发现,迪士尼乐园服务群体的扩散效果主要受到本地游客的直接影响(占比38.6%)和来自其他地区游客的溢出影响(占比52.4%),受到的时间效应和媒体效应为8.7%和0.3%.此外,该模型还给出了各省游客对迪士尼服务效果传播的不同影响力,以及各省游客对该服务传播的易感性.本研究证实了服务扩散过程中地区空间影响的不对称性,开发的定量模型也为服务业营销人员进行以空间地理为导向的干预措施提供了精准参考.     

熊彼特竞争,交叉效应与创新激励

论文引入行业熊彼特竞争,基于技术原创性与市场原创性,纳入技术与市场专业人员努力的交叉效应,研究创新激励合约的时间长度、激励实现的组织形式与创新团队剩余索取权分成系数的选择.研究显示:1)当不存在委托代理问题时,技术与市场专业人员的整合总是创新团队组织的优化选择;2)创新团队的组织形式对企业创新对象的复杂性选择与剩余索取权分配不产生影响;3)行业熊彼特竞争强度、创新原创性与创新激励合约时间长度负相关;4)交叉效应与技术和市场原创性3者的关系决定了最优创新激励的组织形式.研究提高了创新团队管理的可操作性,强化了创新激励对行业竞争的响应性.