地方政府购买国土空间规划技术服务价格及效仿特征

地方政府以合同、委托等方式向社会购买空间规划技术服务已成常态,却鲜少有研究关注其价格。根据2017年1月-2020年3月全国市县层级的国土空间规划技术项目政府采购信息,分析地方政府购买国土空间规划技术服务中标价格,辨识价格形成的影响因素及效仿特征,为提高公共财政资金的使用绩效提供参考。结果表明:(1)市级和县级国土空间总体规划的采购均价分别为1928万元/项和847万元/项。经济欠发达西部地区的市级国土空间总体规划采购均价最高,达到2325.27万元/项,远高于东部和中部地区;而东部地区的县级国土空间总体规划采购价格较高,为949万元/项。(2)规划区域的国土面积、人口密度、经济水平、规划内容、城市发展定位等直接影响空间规划技术服务的采购价格。同时,因缺乏计费参考标准及成本核算办法,中标价格与已招标的同群地区趋近,这种仿效行为可能导致市级和县级地方政府的采购溢价分别达347.42万元和153.65万元,约占技术项目采购均价的18%。建议加强国土空间规划技术服务计费标准或成本核算研究,尤其经济落后市县空间规划政府采购的社会监督,重视地方规划研究机构及其人才队伍建设。     

面板数据的模型建立和检验分析

面板数据分析是数量经济学中一门重要的分支,在经济领域中有着广泛的应用。文章详细地介绍了面板数据的主要类型及模型的建立和检验。     

Neurocognitive Effects in Welders Exposed to Aluminium: An Application of the NPC Test and NPC Ranking Methods

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of exposure to aluminium on the cognitive sphere in a group of welders. Given the intrinsic complexity of the neurocognitive sphere, three different psychomotor variables were used for its investigation allowing the resulting problem to be naturally modelized into a multivariate framework and solved by a nonparametric combination of permutation tests (NPC test). In order to make the treated and control groups comparable, we also stratified the samples on the basis of a risk index that estimates the combined action of biological age and exposure time. Despite the fact that studies in the literature have reached conflicting results, our study highlights a significant drop in attention and memory performances in individuals exposed to aluminium. Finally, we identify a global criterion that summarises the information on the neurocognitive state by applying the nonparametric combination of dependent rankings method (NPC ranking).     

OECD国家能源消费、经济增长与碳排放关系研究

基于面板数据模型,分析1971--2006年间28个OECD国家能源消费、经济增长和碳排放之间的关系,再根据面板数据的单位根检验和协整性检验,确定三者之间存在长期的均衡关系。通过固定影响变系数模型的估计发现：碳排放与能源消费呈显著的正相关关系,各国碳排放的能源消费弹性系数存在明显的差异;从长期看,部分国家碳排放与GDP的关系呈现倒“U”形,部分国家呈“U”形。     

齿轮状态声信息流的识别法

根据齿轮噪声信息流的传播途径研制了固体声传声器和检测系统,并采用时域分离法分析处理固体声信息以确定齿轮的运行状态。实验结果表明,将此方法用于齿轮故障识别时,能确切提取反映齿轮工作状态的信息流。     

SIMULATED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPLIED TO NON-GAUSSIAN AND NONLINEAR MIXED EFFECTS AND STATE–SPACE MODELS

The paper presents an overview of maximum likelihood estimation using simulated likelihood, including the use of antithetic variables and evaluation of the simulation error of the resulting estimates. It gives a general purpose implementation of simulated maximum likelihood and uses it to re‐visit four models that have previously appeared in the published literature: a state–space model for count data; a nested random effects model for binomial data; a nonlinear growth model with crossed random effects; and a crossed random effects model for binary salamander‐mating data. In the case of the last three examples, this appears to be the first time that maximum likelihood fits of these models have been presented.     

Least-squares tests of time-series,invention effects with and without autocorrelations

Gottman's version of the Mann and Wald asymptotic test for intervention effects in time-series data is presented as a useful small sample procedure. A Monte Carlo simulaltion is conducted to evaluate the procedure for controlling Type I errors with varying values of autoregressive coefficients. Results indicate the procedure works better than Gottman's work originally indicated. However, in some cases error rates can be unacceptably high. Procedures for evaluating changes in level in the presence of autocorrelation and slope are suggested and evaluated.     

Hypothesis testing in smoothing spline models

Nonparametric regression models are often used to check or suggest a parametric model. Several methods have been proposed to test the hypothesis of a parametric regression function against an alternative smoothing spline model. Some tests such as the locally most powerful (LMP) test by Cox et al. (Cox, D., Koh, E., Wahba, G. and Yandell, B. (1988). Testing the (parametric) null model hypothesis in (semiparametric) partial and generalized spline models. Ann. Stat., 16, 113–119.), the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) ratio test and the generalized cross validation (GCV) test by Wahba (Wahba, G. (1990). Spline models for observational data. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, SIAM.) were developed from the corresponding Bayesian models. Their frequentist properties have not been studied. We conduct simulations to evaluate and compare finite sample performances. Simulation results show that the performances of these tests depend on the shape of the true function. The LMP and GML tests are more powerful for low frequency functions while the GCV test is more powerful for high frequency functions. For all test statistics, distributions under the null hypothesis are complicated. Computationally intensive Monte Carlo methods can be used to calculate null distributions. We also propose approximations to these null distributions and evaluate their performances by simulations.     

FDI对我国经济增长的溢出效应的实证分析

依据《中国统计年鉴》1 981 - 2 0 0 0年我国实际利用外资和外国直接投资数据 ,对几种相对显著的溢出效应进行计量分析 ,结果表明 FDI对我国经济增长的正向经济效应和溢出效应是明显的 ,应继续实行鼓励外国直接投资的政策 ,充分利用外国的资金、技术来促进我国经济的快速增长