基金交易行为与市场波动——基于小波与互谱分析的数据挖掘

本文选取2007～2009年基金十大重仓股数据进行小波分析,研究重仓股在不同阶段波动率的特征———微观层面基金行为对这种波动率的直接动量冲击的影响以及金融市场层面沪深300指数对此波动率的联动性的影响。实证结果发现,基金增仓和持股可以减小股票波动率,但减仓会加大股票波动率,呈现出非对称稳定市场的特性。在金融市场层面分析上,论文应用溢出效应检验互谱分析方法,发现这种波动率主要是由基金持股组合调整造成的,市场波动对个股波动率影响不大,即股票波动率主要是由基金交易行为造成所引致。     

中国股票市场的时变杠杆效应研究——基于随机Copula模型的实证分析

构建随机Copula模型研究了中国股票市场在极端市场条件下的时变杠杆效应.为了解决金融市场中波动率不可直接观测的问题,采用已实现波动率测度作为隐波动率的代理变量,进而运用基于有效重要性抽样的极大似然(EIS-ML)方法估计了随机Copula模型的参数.基于沪深股市数据的实证研究表明:中国股票市场的杠杆效应具有非对称特征,即股市低收益率伴随高波动率,但股市高收益率不一定伴随低波动率;中国股票市场的杠杆效应存在显著的时变性,沪深股市杠杆效应表现出类似的变化趋势;随机Copula模型相比其它Copula模型(静态Copula模型和时变Copula模型)具有更好的数据拟合效果.     

服务的空间扩散: 基于上海迪士尼的实证

体验经济是当代企业服务营销的重要组成,由于服务体验的扩散具有明显的空间效应,本研究通过建立服务扩散的空间溢出模型,在其中定义区域间的相对影响力和易感性,从而准确分离了本地区服务体验扩散和其他地区溢出扩散这两种空间影响效果.研究基于上海迪士尼乐园游客的移动数据,实证测量了迪士尼服务群体的空间扩散效应、省份和区域层次服务扩散的影响力、易感性与溢出效应.结果发现,迪士尼乐园服务群体的扩散效果主要受到本地游客的直接影响(占比38.6%)和来自其他地区游客的溢出影响(占比52.4%),受到的时间效应和媒体效应为8.7%和0.3%.此外,该模型还给出了各省游客对迪士尼服务效果传播的不同影响力,以及各省游客对该服务传播的易感性.本研究证实了服务扩散过程中地区空间影响的不对称性,开发的定量模型也为服务业营销人员进行以空间地理为导向的干预措施提供了精准参考.     

熊彼特竞争,交叉效应与创新激励

论文引入行业熊彼特竞争,基于技术原创性与市场原创性,纳入技术与市场专业人员努力的交叉效应,研究创新激励合约的时间长度、激励实现的组织形式与创新团队剩余索取权分成系数的选择.研究显示:1)当不存在委托代理问题时,技术与市场专业人员的整合总是创新团队组织的优化选择;2)创新团队的组织形式对企业创新对象的复杂性选择与剩余索取权分配不产生影响;3)行业熊彼特竞争强度、创新原创性与创新激励合约时间长度负相关;4)交叉效应与技术和市场原创性3者的关系决定了最优创新激励的组织形式.研究提高了创新团队管理的可操作性,强化了创新激励对行业竞争的响应性.     

多元化战略、高管持股分布设计与公司治理

多元化战略实施过程中高管持股作为一种长期激励机制其设计是否合理将直接影响企业战略收益的实现,在文献回顾的基础上分析高管持股利益趋同效应对多元化战略成功实施的积极意义以及公司治理强弱对高管持股效应的影响.对沪深两市2005年674家上市公司的数据进行实证分析,结果表明提高高管持股激励强度能有效改善多元化战略的实施效果,但高管持股分布设计差异影响利益趋同效应的发挥.公司治理作为企业战略实施的保障机制,可以有效地避免高管持股的壕沟防御效应.企业应该从高管持股分布设计和公司治理等多个维度同步建设入手,为多元化战略的成功实施创造条件.     

中华苏维埃共和国时期的新闻事业

中华苏维埃共和国成立后,由于各级党政组织的重视,新闻出版事业得到很大的发展.红色新闻事业对革命战争和苏维埃运动有着不可磨灭的伟大功绩,遗留给我们的大量的红色报刊是中国新闻事业的重要遗产和珍贵文献.     

Outcome valence and externality valence framing in public good dilemmas

The aim of this paper is to examine how framing influences people’ s cooperation behavior in social dilemmas. In Experiment 1 we investigated the influence of outcome valence (positive vs. negative outcome) and externality valence (positive vs. negative externality) framing on players’ willingness to cooperate in a repeated public good game. We found a significant interaction effect on first-round cooperation, indicating larger cooperation rates when there is a negative outcome valence and a positive externality on others. Furthermore, this effect remained largely stable when comparing cooperation over all rounds, resulting in 45–63% increased cooperation compared to the other conditions. In Experiment 2 we replicated the effect in an applied vignette study, lending support for the generalizability of this framing effect. Taken together, these findings suggest that public goods provisions may be increased substantially by framing the situation’s outcome valence as negative rather than positive.     

Noise

This essay develops a cultural materialist theory of listening through a historical ethnography of Gibraltarian men's contradictory sensitivity to the ‘noise’ of mass media and desensitization to the industrial soundscape of the state. I argue that this contradiction can be historicized through close attention to the social antagonisms embedded in the history of noise ordinances, and the ways in which British colonial officials structured an idealized form of masculinity premised on the sonic relationships between bodies and technologies. Gibraltarian men reproduce this masculine disposition, and through it colonial hierarchies, in the seemingly banal practice of listening to mass media, and ignoring the soundscape of the neoliberal, colonial state.     

《演繁露》词语探源述评

《演繁露》写作目的之一，就是考证名物，对经书、史书及其他典籍中的疑难词语进行解释，为读者排疑解惑。因而，《演繁露》一书涉及文字、音韵、训诂之处颇多。该书通过词形、语义、语音来探求词语源头，在古音古义的辨正考讹中揭示文字的发展变化，补充字典语词及义项之不足，为古代汉语研究留下了非常丰富的语料。     

Seeing is Believing? An Examination of Perceptions of Local Weather Conditions and Climate Change Among Residents in the U.S. Gulf Coast

What role do objective weather conditions play in coastal residents’ perceptions of local climate shifts and how do these perceptions affect attitudes toward climate change? While scholars have increasingly investigated the role of weather and climate conditions on climate‐related attitudes and behaviors, they typically assume that residents accurately perceive shifts in local climate patterns. We directly test this assumption using the largest and most comprehensive survey of Gulf Coast residents conducted to date supplemented with monthly temperature data from the U.S. Historical Climatology Network and extreme weather events data from National Climatic Data Center. We find objective conditions have limited explanatory power in determining perceptions of local climate patterns. Only the 15‐ and 19‐year hurricane trends and decadal summer temperature trend have some effects on perceptions of these weather conditions, while the decadal trend of total number of extreme weather events and 15‐ and 19‐year winter temperature trends are correlated with belief in climate change. Partisan affiliation, in contrast, plays a powerful role affecting individual perceptions of changing patterns of air temperatures, flooding, droughts, and hurricanes, as well as belief in the existence of climate change and concern for future consequences. At least when it comes to changing local conditions, “seeing is not believing.” Political orientations rather than local conditions drive perceptions of local weather conditions and these perceptions—rather than objectively measured weather conditions—influence climate‐related attitudes.