谈礼貌语对会话的影响

通过对日英汉三种语言的礼貌语的对比以及它们在会话中的实际运用的研究 ,探讨了礼貌语在会话中的作用以及对会话的影响。三种语言的礼貌语形式各异 ,但它们在会话中所起的作用相同。在一般情况下礼貌语必须受到会话约定俗成规则的规范 ,在特定语言环境下礼貌语也有超出一般会话规则的现象     

音乐高师生必须提高钢琴即兴伴奏水平

钢琴即兴伴奏是音乐专业高师生必修的一门理论技能课程 ,它已被广泛地运用于教学、演唱、演奏伴奏等活动之中。提高钢琴即兴伴奏水平 ,关键在于学习理念与方法的转变。从突破伴奏者自身练习方法与学习观念的局限入手 ,可以提高钢琴即兴伴奏技能     

两种德育效果之辨析

目前 ,德育课堂效果和德育社会实际效果存在的不一致现象 ,常引起人们的误解。其实 ,二者既有密切联系 ,又有一定差异。要使德育功能真正得到有效发挥 ,二者的有机统一是关键。     

基于变结构Copula模型的金融危机传染效应实证分析——以中关股票市场为例

为检验美国金融危机的传染效应，根据中关股市指数日收益率，进行Granger因果检验，并运用变结构Copula模型实证分析金融危机前后美国股市和中国股市的相关性变化。结果表明：美国金融危机加大了中关两国股市的相关性，但影响程度呈现出阶段性变化。在危机发生后的第一阶段美国金融危机对中国股市存在传染效应，在金融危机发生后的第二和第三阶段传染效应没有证实。     

A Threshold Dose-Response Model with Random Effects in Teratological Experiments

Abstract

Teratological experiments are controlled dose-response studies in which impregnated animals are randomly assigned to various exposure levels of a toxic substance. Subsequently, both continuous and discrete responses are recorded on the litters of fetuses that these animals produce. Discrete responses are usually binary in nature, such as the presence or absence of some fetal anomaly. This clustered binary data usually exhibits over-dispersion (or under-dispersion), which can be interpreted as either variation between litter response probabilities or intralitter correlation. To model the correlation and/or variation, the beta-binomial distribution has been assumed for the number of positive fetal responses within a litter. Although the mean of the beta-binomial model has been linked to dose-response functions, in terms of measuring over-dispersion, it may be a restrictive method in modeling data from teratological studies. Also for certain toxins, a threshold effect has been observed in the dose-response pattern of the data. We propose to incorporate a random effect into a general threshold dose-response model to account for the variation in responses, while at the same time estimating the threshold effect. We fit this model to a well-known data set in the field of teratology. Simulation studies are performed to assess the validity of the random effects threshold model in these types of studies.     

网络环境下的平台服务及其管理问题

通过对1999-2009的11718个被收购公司样本进行分组比较后发现掏空程度高的样本组公司业绩更差。全体样本被收购前的掏空程度显著高于被收购后的掏空程度，说明这些上市公司被收购后的掏空行为得到了收敛。掏空程度最低的样本组被收购时给股东带来的财富效应是负的，而掏空程度最高的样本组被收购后给股东带来的财富效应是正的。通过回归分析，发现控制权与现金流权的分离度越大，掏空对业绩的负面影响更大；大股东受到的制衡度越小，掏空对业绩的负面影响越小；被收购前如果董事长与总经理两职合一，那么被收购后因改善掏空而获得的财富效应将弱化；目标公司在被收购前的控制权与现金流权的分离度越大，目标公司被收购时获得的财富效应越小。     

关联和语境效果刍议

本文试图澄清关联理论中常常引起误解和争议的几个重要概念：关联、认知效果、语境效果。作者认为，关联可以是信息的关联，也可以是话语行为本身的关联，同时分析了它们之间的关系。     

A self-consistency approach to multinomial logit model with random effects

The computation in the multinomial logit mixed effects model is costly especially when the response variable has a large number of categories, since it involves high-dimensional integration and maximization. Tsodikov and Chefo (2008) developed a stable MLE approach to problems with independent observations, based on generalized self-consistency and quasi-EM algorithm developed in Tsodikov (2003). In this paper, we apply the idea to clustered multinomial response to simplify the maximization step. The method transforms the complex multinomial likelihood to Poisson-type likelihood and hence allows for the estimates to be obtained iteratively solving a set of independent low-dimensional problems. The methodology is applied to real data and studied by simulations. While maximization is simplified, numerical integration remains the dominant challenge to computational efficiency.     

消费者对SSTs的评价与使用——企业形象、自我效能的调节作用

以自助服务技术(Self-service Technologies,SSTs)为代表的基于技术的服务创新日益成为服务营销实践和理论研究的热点。本文以商业银行的网上服务为背景,创新性地拓展技术接受模型,探讨消费者差异(自我效能)和企业差异(企业形象)及其交互作用对消费者评价和使用SST意愿的影响。研究发现,自我效能决定了态度影响使用意愿的程度以及企业形象对态度与使用意愿的关系的调节作用。     

Estimating multivariate random effects without replication

This paper considers the estimation of multivariate random effects that are measured with error, but for which there are no replications. Using structural simplification of the correlation of the data, separate estimates are generated for the covariance of the random effects and the covariance of the error. An estimator of the random effects based on a truncated eigen structure is defined, and matrix mean squared error and its trace (risk) are analyzed, with comparison to the maximum likelihood estimator (m.l.e) and also to the Stein-like estimator of Efron and Morris (1972). It is shown that the estimator has risk which is smaller than the risk of the maximum likelihood estimator and the Efron-Morris estimator in most cases.