Number of children and later-life mortality among Finns born 1938–50

We investigated the association between number of offspring and later-life mortality of Finnish men and women born 1938–50, and whether the association was explained by living conditions in own childhood and adulthood, chronic conditions, fertility timing, and unobserved characteristics common to siblings. We used a longitudinal 1950 census sample to estimate mortality at ages 50–72. Relative to parents of two children, all-cause mortality is highest among childless men and women, and elevated among those with one child, independently of observed confounders. Fixed-effect models, which control for unobserved characteristics shared by siblings, clearly support these findings among men. Cardiovascular mortality is higher among men with no, one, or at least four children than among those with two. Living conditions in adulthood contribute to the association between the number of children and mortality to a greater extent than childhood background, and chronic conditions contribute to the excess mortality of the childless.     

电信运营商投资效益仿真研究——基于系统动力学视角

针对目前电信运营商投资效益分析方法单一的现状,依据电信运营商投资效益非线性、动态性等特征,运用系统动力学方法构建了电信运营商投资效益仿真模型,对电信运营商投资效益影响因素进行了仿真分析。结果表明网络设备延迟投入、综合造价等对投资效益影响较大,在此基础上,给出了电信运营商在针对投入产出水平和提升效益方面的建议。     

四川少数民族村寨旅游扶贫模式转变研究

In 2012 , State Ethnic Affairs Com-mission of the People’ s Republic of China( hereaf-ter SEAC ) announced an outline concerning the protection and development of‘ethnic minority vil-lages with special characteristics ’ . The develop-ment of such villages is one of the important tasks of the State Ethnic Affairs Commission:this devel-opment aims to foster the conservation of ethnic culture and to accelerate the development of the ethnic areas in which these villages lie. On Sep-tember 23 , 2014 , the State Ethnic Affairs Com-mission announced guanyu minming shoupi zhong-guo shaoshu minzu tese chunzhai de tongzhi ( No-tice on the Naming of the First Group of China ’ s Ethnic Minority Villages with Special Characteris-tics):340 villages in total were inscribed into the list of this so-called ‘First Batch ’ , among which four villages of Sichuan province were included:( i) Jiefang village of Haqu in Leshan, ( ii) Mutuo Village of Maoxian in Aba, ( iii) Shangmo Village of Songfan in Aba, and ( iv) Guza Village of Seda in Ganzi. With the support of the so-called‘Poverty Al-leviation Policy’ , tourism in ethnic minority villa-ges has been booming; however, this has also re-sulted in a new series of related problems that need to be addressed. Tourism development obviously had reduced regional poverty. Since the 1980s, the promotion of economic development through tourism in the ethnic areas ( with a corresponding improvement of people ’ s living conditions ) has been widely accepted by society. Also in the prov-ince of Sichuan the ‘poverty alleviation through tourism’ policy has led to economic growth and has reduced the poverty of the people in the ethnic mi-nority areas. From 2011 to 2014, the SEAC has invested 57. 8 million Yuan in the development of ethnic minority villages in Sichuan province. This has led to the implementation of 73 projects and has benefited around 100,000 people, 7 indige-nous ethnic groups, and 11 prefectures and munic-ipalities in Sichuan. It seems that this‘poverty al-leviation through tourism ’ ( hereafter PATT ) has resulted in good economic and social effects. Ethnic minority villages in Sichuan share sim-ilar challenges: ( i) a low level of production and productivity,economic backwardness, simplistic e-conomic infrastructure, cultural narrow-minded-ness, a low level of education and personal devel-opment, and a fragile condition of local nature and cultural surroundings. Moreover, tourism has since deeply altered previous development models for these regions: this has also brought many new problems, like e. g. how to correctly distribute the newly acquired economic benefits and profits, as well as cultural and environmental protection is-sues. Many of these problems seem to be only tran-sitional;however, these challenges do ask for the necessary tweaks of the PATT policies. This article thus tries to review the model of PATT as imple-mented in the ethnic villages of Sichuan. The arti-cle explores its different stages/aspects:( i) adap-tation of goals, ( ii) the changing role of the gov-ernment, ( iii) an evolving profit model for local people, and ( iv ) evolving local talent discovery and activation. The first aspect of PATT is the change of the development goals. At first, the priority is to get rid of poverty through tourism. To initially boost local tourism, the government must make major in-vestments: enhancement of the basic infrastruc-ture, creation of a touristic brand and initial adver-tising for the ethnic villages. However, when the PATT has been effectively implemented, and reached a mature stage of development, i. e. the village has become relatively popular and annual numbers of tourists have reached a stable good lev-el, the goals must be adapted: economic develop-ment should change to sustainable development. The new goals would be a combination of local tourism and local related industries, such as handi-craft products, catering and other hospitality busi-nesses etc. When all of this takes place, the eth-nic villages and areas seem to be able to arrive at a green and sustainable development path. The second stage is the change of the role of government. As said, in the beginning large in-vestments in infrastructure, tourism marketing and publicity are needed. In this start-up stage, the village needs quite a lot of human and material re-sources. Without the financial and human aid of the government, it’ s very hard to change a local ethnic minority village into a tourist destination. Hence, the government should play a supportive role during the initial stages of tourism develop-ment, while taking the local villagers ’ will and ethnic culture into consideration: the government should consult with the villagers and encourage the villagers’ participation in the whole development process. When indeed the PATT reaches a mature phase, the local people can take over. By then the locals have gained much experience;their attitudes and business skills have sufficiently improved so the government can take a step back, leaving the villagers to further develop the villages by them-selves. The third aspect is an ‘evolving profit model for local people ’ . During the initial stages of PATT, it’ s all about developing basic tourism pro-jects: at this moment, the main profit models for businesses rely on ( a) ethnic culture projects with distinct characteristics, ( b ) establishing high quality modes of the tourists route, and ( c) pro-moting the unique name and fame of the villages. However, when PATT reaches a mature stage, the villagers themselves must further develop and maintain their unique brand and fame. As said, the government takes a step back while local peo-ple are to develop new related sustainable profit models. The fourth issue is the further evolution of‘local talent discovery and activation ’ or‘talent mechanisms’ . Before the initial stages of PATT in Sichuan, the local villagers of the ethnic minorities had been engaged in traditional agriculture for many years;hence it was difficult for them to tran-sition into modern industries such as tourism and hospitality. Moreover, there were very few locals who had any knowledge of this tourism/hospitality industry. E. g. only some elderly people conducted simplistic tour guide practices for tourists: they were unable to provide any in-depth explanations of the traditional ethnic customs and culture due to language barriers. Thus, outsiders ( including gov-ernment staff and tourism professionals ) had to come in and provide advanced concepts, methods, and training. More importantly, a new ‘local tal-ent team’ had to discover and activate local people with tourism talents/abilities. This allowed for a genuine local tourism industry to come into exist-ence and further evolve. However, when PATT reaches a mature stage, the government should re-turn the economic benefits back to the local people and give them the dominant right to further self-de-velopment. A newly developed professional middle class will then allow the local people to further de-cide on the future of the ethnic villages. After the initial ‘local talent discovery and activation ’ , a more mature ‘talent mechanism ’ should be formed. Led by the best local talents, people from all circles should be encouraged to take part in the further development of the local villages and areas:this allows for greater stability and continuity, while new talents can develop more. This article has analyzed the implementation and adaptation of PATT in the province of Si-chuan, including the ( i) adaptation of goals, ( ii) the changing role of the government, ( iii) an evol-ving profit model for local people, and ( iv) evol-ving local talent discovery and activation. Howev-er, the development of ethnic minority villages still seems to face many difficulties and challenges, and need to be studied and discussed more.     

封闭人群生存人数整体预测--以Lee-Carter模型为例

由不同组别人群组成封闭人群整体生存人数的预测是相关经济、社会问题研究的基础。现有文献在研究相关问题时,使用的方法为：首先根据动态死亡率模型对其中具有相同特征不同部分的生存人数进行预测,之后通过加总得到整体人数的预测（简称现有方法）。由于现有方法忽略了不同特征人群死亡率变动间相关性的影响,会低估生存人数的波动性。本文使用Lee?Carter模型,在将封闭人群按性别分组的基础上,给出了构建生存人数整体预测模型的过程和实例。并通过理论分析和数值模拟两个视角对现有方法和新方法做了比较。比较结果指出：在死亡率波动具有广泛相关性的现实世界中,只有在均值预测时,现有方法才可以达到预期效果,因此笔者建议在对整体人数（特别是涉及方差和分布函数）预测时,使用本文介绍的整体生存人数预测模型。     

空间相互作用与城市经济增长--来自长三角的证据

基于以往研究对空间相互作用方向性考虑不足的事实,文章以长三角133个县市为例,构建了融合新经济地理学与中心地理论的理论框架,将表征空间需求关联的总体市场潜能细分为来自同层级、高等级、低等级三个方向,利用空间计量模型估计了总体及不同方向的空间相互作用对长三角地区人均GDP增长与人口增长的效应。结果显示：在控制空间依赖导致的间接溢出效应等因素后,并未发现存在要素价格绝对调整或要素数量绝对调整的证据,总体市场潜能的提高同时促进了城市人均GDP增长与人口增长;就不同方向的空间相互作用而言,大城市的自身发展有利于中等城市的人均GDP增长,大城市之间、大城市对下级城市、小城市对上级城市形成了人口增长的良性互动格局,而中等城市之间以及中等城市对大城市的人口增长则表现为回流效应。     

基于符号互动论视角下的个体生育态度探究

近年来随着人口老龄化进程的明显加快,以及不同地区、城市出现的生育率持续走低等情况,中国未来人口数量的变化成为了一个十分重要的议题。近年来,国家先后制定了“双独生二胎”、“单独生二胎”以及全面放开二胎等鼓励民众生育的相关政策;相关学者也从人口学和经济学等视角对生育问题展开了诸多研究。本研究则是从符号互动论这一微观社会学视角出发,试图了解民众（主要集中在1970年至1995年出生的群体）生育态度是否会受到社会心理因素,尤其是从小生长的家庭环境中,兄弟姊妹等手足人数、手足关系、父母对待子女公平与否和出生排行的影响;以及当前生活环境,如社会治安状况、经济发展前景和政治稳定性等方面的主观判断对生育态度的影响;最后研究还将结婚意愿、性别等因素纳入到影响个体生育态度的分析模型之中。研究结果发现,兄弟姊妹等手足越多者,未来越倾向要生孩子;手足间关系越好者,未来也越倾向于要生孩子;排行中间的比排行老大的生孩子意愿高;无论父母对自己和手足公平情况怎样,都不会影响其生育态度。此外在所有外在环境中,经济状况是影响人们生育态度的主要因素,有结婚意愿者更倾向于生育孩子,男性也显著比女性更倾向于生育孩子。     

水质预报系统的MPI+OpenMP并行优化研究

OpenMP(Open Multi-Processing)能够在共享存储环境中获得理想的并行性能,MPI＋OpenMP混合并行编程模型更贴近于多核心集群的体系结构。在多核心集群上进行实验,混合模型相对串行程序可缩短95%的运算时间,加速比超过20。实验结果表明,该混合模型比纯MPI并行的系统具有更优的加速比和扩展性,是对纯MPI并行系统的一种改进。     

机械设计制造及其自动化专业人才培养模式的创新实践

在新的历史条件下,深化高等教育改革、提高专业人才培养质量,关键是必须改革和创新专业人才培养模式。围绕专业人才培养目标和基本要求,从制订专业人才培养方案、建立基于课程群的完整的人才培养课程体系、创新人才培养模式等方面,阐述了我校机械设计制造及其自动化专业进行综合改革的具体做法,这对其他高校相关专业的教学改革及人才培养,具有一定的启发。     

论三重文化空间中祥林嫂的意义——对《祝福》的文本还原

理解祥林嫂意义时,现代性价值立场的确立使得封建意识形态作为具有标出意味的整体被区隔出来.这种视域将祥林嫂身处其中的三重文化空间理解为封建意识形态与现代性的二元对立,并导致祥林嫂与"我"之间对称性的叙事一直未被言及.事实上,祥林嫂意义的复杂结构正表现为发生于山里文化空间与鲁镇文化空间之间的悲剧命运,由来自外面即第三重文化空间的"我"所讲述.从这个文本现场出发,我们或许能获得祥林嫂出走的现代性启示,还原祥林嫂悲剧命运的内在意义.     

基于分群体非均衡推进的新型农村社会养老保险模式创新研究——以山东临沂农村养老保险为例

通过对山东省临沂市农村社会养老保险实施情况的研究以及探讨,提出一种新的制度模式——分群体非均衡推进。该制度主要针对不同的群体现状,先以计生户和失地农民为突破口,鼓励其主动参加社会养老保险,然后逐步带动其它群体加入到社会养老保险行列,最终实现全面覆盖。