方法论个人主义的经济学与社会学解释——基于行动的视角

方法论所关心的问题是人们应当通过何种途径才能较好地理解人类社会和自然界中现象的真实本质．并指导着人们如何更加有效地把握行动的取向。纯粹性的整体主义和个人主义的方法论都是有失偏颇的,哈耶克社会性的个人主义和舒茨的主体间性理论都能较好地说明方法论的新取向,也正是他们的开创性理论预示了现代西方社会学对社会学两大主题的融合问题所给予的关注,同时他们的理论也使社会学方法论显现出实践性特点。     

组织信息资源管理论纲

本文在简要分析现代组织管理环境基本特点的基础上,对社会组织的信息资源管理的功能、原则及其运作等若干问题进行了认真的探讨,以期进一步完善现代组织管理理论。     

四川盆地西北部蕈菌资源

1986年以来在四川盆地西北部采集到205种草菌,其中包括省内新记录种60种,国内新记录种4种。根据G.C.Ainsworth等(1973)的分类系统分类并命名。所有标本保藏在四川锦阳农业专科学校真菌标本室。     

试论校内文献资源共享的实现

本文分析了高校图书馆与各系资料室文献资源共享的必要性,提出校内资源共享的具体方法：中、小型图书馆———实行馆系合并,取消资料室;大型图书馆———加强馆系联系,共建共享资源。并对两种方法的实施提出了建议     

江西寻乌地区蜻蜓调查初报

1996－1007年在江西省寻乌山区捕获蜻蜒26种,分隶6科、20属。其中20种是江西省新记录。     

Strong previsions of random elements

LetC be a class of arbitrary real random elements andP an extended real valued function onC. Two definitions of coherence forP are compared. Both definitions reduce to the classical de Finetti's one whenC includes bounded random elements only. One of the two definitions (called strong coherence) is investigated, and some criteria for checking it are provided. Moreover, conditions are given for the integral representation of a coherentP, possibly with respect to a δ-additive probability. Finally, the two definitions and the integral representation theorems are extended to the case whereC is a class of random elements taking values in a given Banach space.     

Bayesian inference for generalized additive mixed models based on Markov random field priors

Most regression problems in practice require flexible semiparametric forms of the predictor for modelling the dependence of responses on covariates. Moreover, it is often necessary to add random effects accounting for overdispersion caused by unobserved heterogeneity or for correlation in longitudinal or spatial data. We present a unified approach for Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in generalized additive and semiparametric mixed models. Different types of covariates, such as the usual covariates with fixed effects, metrical covariates with non-linear effects, unstructured random effects, trend and seasonal components in longitudinal data and spatial covariates, are all treated within the same general framework by assigning appropriate Markov random field priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. We applied the approach in several case-studies and consulting cases, showing that the methods are also computationally feasible in problems with many covariates and large data sets. In this paper, we choose two typical applications.     

Forecasting Multivariate Road Traffic Flows Using Bayesian Dynamic Graphical Models,Splines and Other Traffic Variables

Traffic flow data are routinely collected for many networks worldwide. These invariably large data sets can be used as part of a traffic management system, for which good traffic flow forecasting models are crucial. The linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM) has been shown to be promising for forecasting flows, accommodating multivariate flow time series, while being a computationally simple model to use. While statistical flow forecasting models usually base their forecasts on flow data alone, data for other traffic variables are also routinely collected. This paper shows how cubic splines can be used to incorporate extra variables into the LMDM in order to enhance flow forecasts. Cubic splines are also introduced into the LMDM to parsimoniously accommodate the daily cycle exhibited by traffic flows. The proposed methodology allows the LMDM to provide more accurate forecasts when forecasting flows in a real high‐dimensional traffic data set. The resulting extended LMDM can deal with some important traffic modelling issues not usually considered in flow forecasting models. Additionally, the model can be implemented in a real‐time environment, a crucial requirement for traffic management systems designed to support decisions and actions to alleviate congestion and keep traffic flowing.     

煤炭资源开采中的生态环境经济损失及补偿研究

通过对CVM研究结论的比较讨论,认为基于CVM测算出的煤炭资源开采中的生态环境经济损失值偏小.为了全面计算煤炭资源开采中的生态环境经济损失值,提出将CVM与直接市场法和间接市场法联合使用,并计算出2010年榆林市煤炭资源开采的生态环境经济损失为208.4亿～209.11亿元.在此基础上,又对煤炭资源开采中的生态环境损失补偿问题进行研究,提出由煤炭资源开采企业和煤炭资源受益者共同承担煤炭资源开采中生态环境损失补偿的责任,并对各自应该分担的补偿水平进行量化.     

Extended BIC for linear regression models with diverging number of relevant features and high or ultra-high feature spaces

In many conventional scientific investigations with high or ultra-high dimensional feature spaces, the relevant features, though sparse, are large in number compared with classical statistical problems, and the magnitude of their effects tapers off. It is reasonable to model the number of relevant features as a diverging sequence when sample size increases. In this paper, we investigate the properties of the extended Bayes information criterion (EBIC) (Chen and Chen, 2008) for feature selection in linear regression models with diverging number of relevant features in high or ultra-high dimensional feature spaces. The selection consistency of the EBIC in this situation is established. The application of EBIC to feature selection is considered in a SCAD cum EBIC procedure. Simulation studies are conducted to demonstrate the performance of the SCAD cum EBIC procedure in finite sample cases.