A New Model of Trend Inflation

This article introduces a new model of trend inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation, we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model. This article has supplementary materials online.     

Model-based clustering for social networks

Summary.  Network models are widely used to represent relations between interacting units or actors. Network data often exhibit transitivity, meaning that two actors that have ties to a third actor are more likely to be tied than actors that do not, homophily by attributes of the actors or dyads, and clustering. Interest often focuses on finding clusters of actors or ties, and the number of groups in the data is typically unknown. We propose a new model, the latent position cluster model , under which the probability of a tie between two actors depends on the distance between them in an unobserved Euclidean 'social space', and the actors' locations in the latent social space arise from a mixture of distributions, each corresponding to a cluster. We propose two estimation methods: a two-stage maximum likelihood method and a fully Bayesian method that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The former is quicker and simpler, but the latter performs better. We also propose a Bayesian way of determining the number of clusters that are present by using approximate conditional Bayes factors. Our model represents transitivity, homophily by attributes and clustering simultaneously and does not require the number of clusters to be known. The model makes it easy to simulate realistic networks with clustering, which are potentially useful as inputs to models of more complex systems of which the network is part, such as epidemic models of infectious disease. We apply the model to two networks of social relations. A free software package in the R statistical language, latentnet, is available to analyse data by using the model.     

方法论个人主义的经济学与社会学解释——基于行动的视角

方法论所关心的问题是人们应当通过何种途径才能较好地理解人类社会和自然界中现象的真实本质．并指导着人们如何更加有效地把握行动的取向。纯粹性的整体主义和个人主义的方法论都是有失偏颇的,哈耶克社会性的个人主义和舒茨的主体间性理论都能较好地说明方法论的新取向,也正是他们的开创性理论预示了现代西方社会学对社会学两大主题的融合问题所给予的关注,同时他们的理论也使社会学方法论显现出实践性特点。     

概率赋范空间中的弱收敛和弱有界

本文引入了Menger-概率赋范空间中有界线性算子,泛函以及向量序列(集)的几种收敛性(有界性)概念,并研究了各种收敛性(有界性)及其相互关系。     

社会参与视角下的乡村旅游文化保护与发展研究

乡村旅游既要以特色为生命,又要以文化为灵魂,保护和发展乡村旅游文化是发展乡村旅游的关键。运用参与式发展理论分析乡村旅游文化保护和发展中存在的主要问题,提出在"社会参与"视角下保护和发展乡村旅游文化的对策。     

论贵州乡村旅游的发展

进入21世纪以来,乡村旅游已经成为我国旅游业的重要组成部分。乡村旅游是贵州旅游产品建设的重要内容,是加强贵州旅游核心竞争力的重要手段,是贵州旅游业结构调整的重要方面。在乡村旅游业的发展过程中,要协调好乡村旅游与各种利益群体间的关系,在乡村旅游中要注意突出个性特色,发掘文化资源,加强政府作用。     

从国际视角看新世纪中国政府旅游危机管理

旅游业在旅游危机中的"蝴蝶效应",表明其是对危机高度敏感的产业。在系统地梳理中外危机管理研究的状况基础上,结合新世纪的旅游危机形势和系列旅游危机事件,从分析旅游危机的内涵、类型、特征和影响入手,选取旅游危机管理体系中行为主体核心——政府为切入点,全面归纳了本世纪政府旅游危机管理的国际经验,分析了国际视角下的中国政府旅游危机管理的缺陷,提出我国政府旅游危机管理的应对对策。     

江苏省发展水利旅游的SWOT分析与对策

江苏省水利的内涵发展和外延拓展,迫切需要发展水利旅游产业。全方位拓展这一发展内涵,是江苏省水利事业发展的新一轮选择。从江苏省水利旅游资源开发的视角,基于SWOT模型分析内涵,针对江苏省发展水利旅游的实际,解析了SWOT分析因子,提出了相应的对策建议。     

形象工程的历史书写——权力美学的三种标本

中国权力美学的塑造拥有漫长的历史,并给我们留下了三个标本赢政和朱棣的宫式建筑及其符号体系,毛泽东的天安门叙事和当代新建筑浪潮,而支配它们发展的幕后逻辑是权力美学.     

乡村旅游发展与社区农民受益——一种基于“参与”理念与方法的机制

借鉴参与式项目管理,特别是社区主导型发展的理念和方法,强调发挥农民的主体作用,探讨了兴办乡村旅游的重要性、参与式乡村旅游的必要性和可行性,以及参与式乡村旅游的基本架构,其中包括应遵循的五项基本原则、主要内容及效果。