基于Benders分解算法的跨区互联电力系统协调规划模型

研究跨区互联电力系统的协调规划,对于提高投资效率实现更大范围的资源配置具有较强现实意义。本文首先描述多区域电力系统扩张规划问题,并建立多区域扩张规划模型,旨在寻求最优的扩容方案,以最小投入来满足多区域电力系统负荷增长需求;其次,采用Benders分解算法将多区域扩张规划问题分解为一个规划主问题和一个运行子问题,通过主子问题之间的迭代求解,获得最终的最优解;最后,对某个典型的包含7个区域的多区域电力系统进行模拟仿真,验证了本文所构建模型及算法的有效性。     

Restricted maximum likelihood estimation of joint mean‐covariance models

The class of joint mean‐covariance models uses the modified Cholesky decomposition of the within subject covariance matrix in order to arrive to an unconstrained, statistically meaningful reparameterisation. The new parameterisation of the covariance matrix has two sets of parameters that separately describe the variances and correlations. Thus, with the mean or regression parameters, these models have three sets of distinct parameters. In order to alleviate the problem of inefficient estimation and downward bias in the variance estimates, inherent in the maximum likelihood estimation procedure, the usual REML estimation procedure adjusts for the degrees of freedom lost due to the estimation of the mean parameters. Because of the parameterisation of the joint mean covariance models, it is possible to adapt the usual REML procedure in order to estimate the variance (correlation) parameters by taking into account the degrees of freedom lost by the estimation of both the mean and correlation (variance) parameters. To this end, here we propose adjustments to the estimation procedures based on the modified and adjusted profile likelihoods. The methods are illustrated by an application to a real data set and simulation studies. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 225–242; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Decomposing the complete graph into dodecahedra

We prove that the complete graph K_v can be decomposed into dodecahedra if and only if v≡ 1, 16, 25 or 40 (mod 60), v≠16.     

Marriage,Marital History,and Black – White Wealth Differentials Among Older Women

This study investigated the impact of union history and marital transitions on wealth inequality between older Black and White women (N = 7,026). Cohort data from the Health and Retirement Study show large and increasing Black – White differences in wealth. Marital and relationship histories are associated with the wealth accumulation process among older women. Women who married and stay married accumulated levels of wealth that exceeded those of other women with disrupted family lives. The marriage – wealth nexus is sensitive to a woman's position in the wealth distribution. Quantile regression results revealed that racial differences in total wealth holdings between Black and White women exist throughout the wealth distribution, whereas the relationship between current union history and wealth differentials is significant at the lower tail and middle of the distribution. Decomposition analyses highlighted the nontrivial role of racial disparities in marital histories in accounting for the racial wealth gap. As members of the baby boom generation enter their retirement years, it will be more important than ever to monitor the wealth accumulation process among older single and racial/ethnic minority women.     

The Level and Age Pattern of Mortality in Bandafassi (Eastern Senegal): Results From a Small-Scale and Intensive Multi-Round Survey

The data collected in the Bandafassi demographic study in Eastern Senegal, a small-scale intensive and experimental follow-up survey of a population of about 7,000 in 1983, were analysed to derive an estimated life table. The use of multi-round surveys, combined with anthropological methods to estimate ages and collect genealogies, has resulted in unusually reliable data. Taking into account the uncertainty of the estimates due to the small size of the population, mortality was high, with life-expectancy at birth close to 31 years; a pattern of infant and child mortality close to that observed in other rural areas of Senegal, with a very high level or mortality between ages six months and three years; a seasonal pattern in child mortality with two high-risk periods, the rainy season and the end of the dry season; an adult mortality pattern similar to that described in model life tables for developed countries; no significant difference by sex or ethnic group. The Bandafassi population study and a few similar studies suggest that one possible way to improve demographic estimates in countries where vital registration systems are defective would be to set up a sample of population laboratories where intensive methods of data collection would continue for extended periods.     

Inter‐industry Inequality: An Important Source of the Urban Income Gap—Regression‐based Decomposition

基于回归方程的收入差距分解发现,1988年、1995年和2002年,行业间收入不平等对中国城镇居民收入差距的贡献越来越大,而且这主要是由一些收入迅速提高的垄断行业造成的。同时,区位、教育、所有制和职业类型以及是否有第二职业对收入差距的贡献也在提高,是否完全就业和年龄对收入差距的贡献明显下降。因此,缩小中国城镇收入差距,亟需打破劳动力市场进入壁垒和产品市场行业垄断。此外,减轻地区间的劳动力流动障碍、普遍提高劳动者的受教育水平等措施也将是未来政府缩小城镇收入差距的重要政策着力点。

关键词: 行业垄断?收入差距分解?夏普里值

Regression‐based decomposition of inter‐industry earnings differentials shows that in 1988, 1995 and 2002, inter‐industry earnings differentials made an increasing contribution to urban earnings inequality in China. The primary reason for the widening gap lay in monopoly industries. At the same time, geographical location, educational level, type of enterprise ownership, type of occupation and whether the individual had a second job also contributed to rising earnings inequality, while age and being fully employed made a decreasing contribution. Therefore, if China is to reduce the earnings gap it is imperative that we remove barriers to labor market entry and break down some monopoly industries in the product market. Additionally, reducing obstacles to the free movement of labor and improving workers' educational level should also be important elements of the government's strategy for reducing the urban income gap in future.     

规避通胀风险的结构性理财产品设计与定价

在资产通胀风险日益增加的背景下,如何设计出更加符合市场的结构性理财产品并给予其合理定价是目前亟待解决的问题。运用金融工程组合分解技术构建一种创新型幂式双障碍敲出期权,该期权可以作为银行结构性理财产品的内嵌期权,从而获得一种创新型幂式双障碍理财产品,运用风险中性定价理论将复平面的围道积分应用于Laplace逆变换给出期权定价模型,以中国银行HJB0903v为例,研究中国规避通胀风险的黄金挂钩双障碍理财产品定价的合理性,并分析黄金价格波动对HJB0903v触及障碍的概率和理论价格的影响。研究结果表明,产品发行价格稍高于其理论价值,隐含溢价率为0.81%;波动率的增加使触及障碍的概率增加,使理论价格先小幅增加后大幅降低,最终趋于某一稳定值。     

Changing Industrial Metabolism: Methods for Analysis

Research in the field of industrial metabolism traditionally has been focused on measuring and describing physical flows of economic systems. The metabolism of economic systems, however, changes over time, and measuring material flows is insufficient to understand this process. Understanding the relation between economic activities and material flows can help to unravel the socio-economic causes of these physical flows. Three issues are addressed: The importance of spatial scales and trade flows, empirical analysis of relations between economic development and material flows, and treatment of behaviour of and interactions between stakeholders. For each of these issues, methods for analysis are suggested.     

国际石油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响——基于VAR的实证研究

石油价格波动是牵动一国经济领域方方面面的要素之一,备受各国政府的关注。通过建立描述国际石油价格波动与我国工业生产总值(GIP)、生产者价格指数(PPI)之间动态关系的向量自回归模型,研究国际石油价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响。脉冲响应分析的结果显示:石油价格上涨会使我国的通货膨胀加剧,国际石油价格与我国GIP增长率的相关性还需进一步考证,而高油价并没有在短期内改变中国经济增长的基本趋势。     

中国能源消费的CO_2排放变动及其驱动因素分析

结合中国CO2排放的现状,运用改善的因素分解方法,就中国CO2排放变动的影响因素进行定性与定量的分析,研究结果认为：经济增长是促进能耗增长与CO2排放逐年增长的主导因素,而且这一作用还呈逐年增长的发展趋势;能源结构调整并未起到节能减排的作用,以煤为主的能源结构是导致CO2排放快速增长的原因之一;技术进步与产业结构调整是实现节能减排目标的主要因素。其中,能源技术进步减排效应最大。2020年减排目标的实现,关键在于推动节能技术进步,淘汰落后产能,推动重点领域节能减排;重点是控制煤炭消费的快速增长,以及能源结构与产业结构的双重优化。