Mobility of ‘the defeated’: internal migration and social advancement in a post-civil war society

The article examines the relationship between the movement across space and social mobility by analyzing the conditions for internal migration in Spain during the years of the Franco regime. Specifically it reflects on the ways in which migration from the countryside into self-constructed shantytowns in the greater Madrid area was perceived by migrants themselves, and on the strategies that enabled migration to be carried through. By focusing on the challenges that internal migration posed to the spatial practices and mobility regimes of the dictatorship, the article also explores the relationship between spatial movement, social mobility and political repression within the context of a nationalist dictatorship.     

The local geographies of welfare in Tunisia: Does neighbourhood matter?*

Amara M, Ayadi M. The local geographies of welfare in Tunisia: Does neighbourhood matter? The aim of this article is to show that spatial analysis techniques outperform non‐spatial statistical counterparts for understanding the geographic determinants of welfare and poverty in Tunisia. First, an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis, based on a Geographical Information System, was conducted to visualise the local spatial structure of welfare. Second, a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, respectively, were used to deal with both spatial autocorrelations and unobserved spatial heterogeneity of households' behaviours. Spatial and non‐spatial models were compared according to their predictive performances. Results of this case study confirm that SAR and GWR spatial models are preferable to the traditional non‐spatial regression model and that they give a better approximation of the Tunisian poverty map.     

文学接受与传播中的“《白鹿原》热”探析

《白鹿原》是广受读者和评论家热捧的小说。探讨其背后的深层原因、民族历史与文化的深刻反思是该书的新突破,文学叙事理念的回归使其具有阅读吸引力,中西方文化思潮相交融的背景使其具有较高的艺术品味和审美价值;出版体制的变革、文学消费观念的变化,文学商业化突出,使具有雅俗共赏特点的《白鹿原》获得读者共鸣。茅盾文学奖等奖项的获得、文学评论家的好评、现代传媒的介入也起到了推波助澜的作用,以上综合因素是《白鹿原》20年来经久不衰的重要因素。     

Causes of Increasing Ages at Marriage: An International Regression Study

Abstract

The mean age at marriage is increasing in nearly all regions of the world, with the gender age difference at marriage tending to decrease. Five hypotheses for these trends (economic modernization, supply and demand, social/cultural/religious influences, healthcare quality, and longevity risk sharing) are tested through cross-country regression analyses of the timing and prevalence of marriage, using 40 explanatory variables from 156 countries. The dependent variables are female mean age at marriage, gender age difference, and proportion of females married by age 20-24. Ample evidence of the impact of economic modernization and education is found. The influence of cultural beliefs is evidenced by the presence of religious variables in several selected regression equations.     

Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data

Prediction of natural disasters and their consequences is difficult due to the uncertainties and complexity of multiple related factors. This article explores the use of domain knowledge and spatial data to construct a Bayesian network (BN) that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for assessment of catastrophic risk. A BN is chosen due to its advantages such as merging multiple source data and domain knowledge in a consistent system, learning from the data set, inference with missing data, and support of decision making. A key advantage of our methodology is the combination of domain knowledge and learning from the data to construct a robust network. To improve the assessment, we employ spatial data analysis and data mining to extend the training data set, select risk factors, and fine‐tune the network. Another major advantage of our methodology is the integration of an optimal discretizer, informative feature selector, learners, search strategies for local topologies, and Bayesian model averaging. These techniques all contribute to a robust prediction of risk probability of natural disasters. In the flood disaster's study, our methodology achieved a better probability of detection of high risk, a better precision, and a better ROC area compared with other methods, using both cross‐validation and prediction of catastrophic risk based on historic data. Our results suggest that BN is a good alternative for risk assessment and as a decision tool in the management of catastrophic risk.     

Bayesian discrete latent spatial modeling of crack initiation in orthopaedic hip replacement bone cement

In this paper, we propose a spatial model for the initiation of cracks in the bone cement of hip replacement specimens. The failure of hip replacements can be attributed mainly to damage accumulation, consisting of crack initiation and growth, occurring in the cement mantle that interlocks the hip prosthesis and the femur bone. Since crack initiation is an important factor in determining the lifetime of a replacement, the understanding of the reasons for crack initiation is vital in attempting to prolong the life of the hip replacement. The data consist of crack location coordinates from five laboratory experimental models, together with stress measurements. It is known that stress plays a major role in the initiation of cracks, and it is also known that other unmeasurable factors such as air bubbles (pores) in the cement mantle are also influential. We propose an identity-link spatial Poisson regression model for the counts of cracks in discrete regions of the cement, incorporating both the measured (stress), and through a latent process, any unmeasured factors (possibly pores) that may be influential. All analysis is carried out in a Bayesian framework, allowing for the inclusion of prior information obtained from engineers, and parameter estimation for the model is done via Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.     

空间格义背后的举意与旁观——《日用家当》中“家宅”的心理几何图解

在爱丽丝·沃克的短篇小说《日用家当》中,家宅被赋予了一定的格义属性,这可以被视为19世纪女性主义文学批评语境中的心理现象学介入。家宅格义背后的心理图解划清了个体＂生存空间＂的原型与流变,洋溢着深切的心理几何假设内涵。作者借助不同人物对于家宅的写实性解读,提供了一个富有曲面内涵的边缘记忆空间,揭示了主体的物我元一思想已然深植于家宅意象当中,并以拓扑图腾的同胚形式得以彰显。家宅的心理几何图解立体地刻画了个体在生存空间日渐缩限时的困顿与挣扎,更是直指个体守护本我世界时的一种精神重估,而这正是该部文学作品所隐含的原生代性旨归所在。     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

论贾平凹小说对性意象的重复叙述

贾平凹的小说对于性的描写与叙述,无论是在表现范围的广度上,还是在对性作意象性处理的深度上,都不囿于通常所界定的性描写范畴,而是把一般的性特征、涉性情节作意象化处理,通过不同作品对性意象的重复叙述,表达了作家对人类生存的抽象性思考。     

1990—2010年长三角地区城市体系的演进——基于人口普查数据的研究

集聚经济和专业化是主导区域城市体系演进的两股主要力量,但二者对区域城市体系中不同城市的增长速度有着不同的影响.前者促进中心城市的发展,而后者主要是促进外围城市的发展.文章使用“四普”、“五普”和“六普”数据资料研究发现,尽管长三角各城市的规模都有了很大的提高,但城市体系内部总体上呈现出扁平化趋势,中小城市发展速度相对更快.这表明,专业化分工是促进长三角城市体系的主要动力.