考虑风险规避的秘书问题求解的一个启发式方法

秘书问题是一类序贯观察与选择问题,描述了动态的信息搜索与决策过程.针对现有的以寻找满意解为目标的启发式方法存在诸多局限,提出了新的启发式方法,该方法基于当前观测中侯选项在已观察侯选项中的相对排名、待观测侯选项数量以及决策者的抱负水平,决策者可以通过设定抱负水平灵活决定该启发式方法的结果导向.推导了该启发式方法的性能指标,并通过仿真的方法与已有启发式方法的性能进行了比较.结果发现,该启发式方法在最终选择的侯选项的期望排名和稳定性,以及风险解的避免上均优于已有的启发式方法.     

An upper bound on the minimal total cost of the transportation problem with varying demands and supplies

In general cases, to find the exact upper bound on the minimal total cost of the transportation problem with varying demands and supplies is an NP-hard problem. In literature, there are only two approaches with several shortcomings to solve the problem. In this paper, the problem is formulated as a bi-level programming model, and proven to be solvable in a polynomial time if the sum of the lower bounds for all the supplies is no less than the sum of the upper bounds for all the demands; and a heuristic algorithm named TPVDS-A based on genetic algorithm is developed as an efficient and robust solution method of the model. Computational experiments on benchmark and new randomly generated instances show that the TPVDS-A algorithm outperforms the two existing approaches.     

A shelf-space optimization model when demand is stochastic and space-elastic

The more customer demand is impulse-driven, the more it is space-dependent and the more it is subject to variation. We investigate the corresponding problem of retail shelf-space planning when demand is stochastic and sensitive to the number and position of facings. We develop a model to maximize a retailer׳s profit by selecting the number of facings and their shelf position under the assumption of limited space. The model is particularly applicable to promotional or temporary products.We develop the first optimization model and solution approach that takes stochastic demand into account, since the current literature applies deterministic models for shelf-space planning. By the means of an innovative modeling approach for the case with space- and positioning effects and the conversion of our problem into a mixed-integer problem, we obtain optimal results within very short run times for large-scale instances relevant in practice. Furthermore, we develop a solution approach to account for cross-space elasticity, and solve it using an own heuristic, which efficiently yields near-optimal results. We demonstrate that correctly considering space elasticity and demand variation is essential. The corresponding impacts on profits and solution structures become even more significant when space elasticity and stochastic demand interact, resulting in up to 5% higher profits and up to 80% differences in solution structures, if both effects are correctly accounted for. We develop an efficient modeling approach, compare the model results with approaches applied in practice and derive rules-of-thumb for planners.     

Model selection consistency of U-statistics with convex loss and weighted lasso penalty

In the paper we consider minimisation of U-statistics with the weighted Lasso penalty and investigate their asymptotic properties in model selection and estimation. We prove that the use of appropriate weights in the penalty leads to the procedure that behaves like the oracle that knows the true model in advance, i.e. it is model selection consistent and estimates nonzero parameters with the standard rate. For the unweighted Lasso penalty, we obtain sufficient and necessary conditions for model selection consistency of estimators. The obtained results strongly based on the convexity of the loss function that is the main assumption of the paper. Our theorems can be applied to the ranking problem as well as generalised regression models. Thus, using U-statistics we can study more complex models (better describing real problems) than usually investigated linear or generalised linear models.     

分支问题等价的一个充分条件

利用奇点理论的思想和方法研究了具有平凡解的分支问题．在t-等价群作用下,得到了具有平凡解的分支问题等价的充分条件．     

On construction of asymptotically correct confidence intervals

In this paper we discuss constructing confidence intervals based on asymptotic generalized pivotal quantities (AGPQs). An AGPQ associates a distribution with the corresponding parameter, and then an asymptotically correct confidence interval can be derived directly from this distribution like Bayesian or fiducial interval estimates. We provide two general procedures for constructing AGPQs. We also present several examples to show that AGPQs can yield new confidence intervals with better finite-sample behaviors than traditional methods.     

大股东控制影响公司现金持有量的实证分析

 本文结合我国上市公司所面临的内部治理机制特点及外部治理环境,从大股东行为的视角对公司现金持有量的影响因素进行实证分析。在加入年度控制变量、行业控制变量和公司财务特征控制变量后,对三项反映大股东行为特征的因素,即大股东持股比例、大股东属性和制度环境因素对公司现金持有量的影响进行了检验。结果表明,第一大股东持股比例较高的公司持有较多的现金,大股东的高持股比例是其占用企业资金侵占中小股东利益的基础。与国有企业相比,民营企业因遭受较强的外部融资约束而持有较高水平的现金。此外,制度环境的发展程度与公司现金持有水平正相关,表明制度环境较好地区的公司持有较多的现金。     

Deconvolution methods for non-parametric inference in two-level mixed models

Summary.  We develop a general non-parametric approach to the analysis of clustered data via random effects. Assuming only that the link function is known, the regression functions and the distributions of both cluster means and observation errors are treated non-parametrically. Our argument proceeds by viewing the observation error at the cluster mean level as though it were a measurement error in an errors-in-variables problem, and using a deconvolution argument to access the distribution of the cluster mean. A Fourier deconvolution approach could be used if the distribution of the error-in-variables were known. In practice it is unknown, of course, but it can be estimated from repeated measurements, and in this way deconvolution can be achieved in an approximate sense. This argument might be interpreted as implying that large numbers of replicates are necessary for each cluster mean distribution, but that is not so; we avoid this requirement by incorporating statistical smoothing over values of nearby explanatory variables. Empirical rules are developed for the choice of smoothing parameter. Numerical simulations, and an application to real data, demonstrate small sample performance for this package of methodology. We also develop theory establishing statistical consistency.     

弘扬传统孝道文化,关注农村养老问题

传统孝道的道德内涵,如养亲、敬亲等规定,是传统孝道文化中的道德精华;传统孝道的推广手段,如宣传教化、榜样引导、以法助孝、以政保孝是行之有效的道德教化手段。在解决当前农村养老问题时,应该继承和借鉴传统孝道文化中的优秀道德资源。     

传媒商业化带来的相关问题分析

传媒商业化是当前中国传媒变革中的热点问题.尽管商业化成为传媒业发展的加速器,但其带来的社会负面效应也必须正视:传媒产品娱乐化、低俗化现象严重,商业炒作无处不在,主流媒体"喉舌"功能减弱等,由此造成媒体的社会责任感不断弱化.对于这些问题,应根据我国传媒业发展的阶段性特点进行系统分析,并借鉴发达国家的相关管制经验,找出一个适用性的解决方案.