中国问题、文论旅行与原创焦虑

讨论中国问题时,应该充分意识到其中的复杂性,尤须摆脱那种形而上的理论化迷思,尊重男男女女汹涌如潮的切肤体验;应该妥善处理好中国文学体验与域外文学理论之间的关系难题,特别是,不能以特殊性否认乃至对抗一般性的价值;应该致力于理论启蒙,致力于融会贯通后的自然创新,放弃原汁原味式理论原创的幻想,进而消除因其不可得而引发的焦虑与怨恨。     

一类n阶非线性微分方程多点边值问题解的唯一性

本文利用Leray-Schauder度理论建立了n阶非线性微分方程y(n)=f(x,y,y′,…y(n-1)),0     

Bayesian autoregressive spectral analysis

The article describes an operational Bayesian approach to making inferences for the spectral density function for univariate autoregressive processes and for the AR operator of multivariate autoregressive processes. The derivation of the approach is described. Numerical examples, including the Wolfer Sunspot numbers, are used to demonstrate the practical usefulness of the approach.     

The classification accuracy of four problem gambling assessment instruments in population research

Improved methodology was used to re-examine the weak correspondence between problem and pathological gamblers identified in population surveys and subsequent classification of these individuals in clinical interviews. The SOGS-R, the CPGI, the NODS and the Problem and Pathological Gambling Measure (PPGM), as well as questions about gambling participation and expenditures, were administered to a total of 7272 adults. Two clinicians then assessed each person's status, based on comprehensive written profiles derived from these questionnaire responses. Instrument classification was then compared to clinical classification. All four instruments correctly classified most non-problem gamblers (i.e. had good to excellent sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive power). However, the PPGM was the only instrument with good classification of problem gamblers (i.e. excellent sensitivity and positive predictive power). The CPGI and SOGS-R had weak positive predictive power and the NODS had only adequate sensitivity and positive predictive power. Improvement in the classification accuracy of the CPGI occurred when a 5+ cut-off was used and when a 4+ cut-off was used with the SOGS. In general, the classification accuracy of the NODS, SOGS and CPGI is better than prior research suggested but overall accuracy is still modest. With adjusted cut-offs, all three instruments are reasonably congruent with clinical ratings.     

关于“哲学无定论”问题的探讨与陈修斋先生的阐释

哲学无定论是20世纪中国哲学家明确提出并反复探讨的一个重要哲学问题,其实质是立足于现代哲学对哲学本性所做的一种探讨。这个问题在20世纪中国哲学中被鲜明地提出并得到热烈地讨论,是人文主义与科学主义两大思潮环绕哲学与科学关系问题相激互融的结果。严复、王国维、张君劢、丁文江、熊十力、贺麟在20世纪上半叶对这个问题予以了逐渐深入的探讨。陈修斋于1988年发表的《关于哲学本性问题的思考》一文,从元哲学的高度,并结合马克思主义哲学,对这一问题予以了新的阐释,使这一问题在中国马克思主义哲学中鲜明地凸显出来。     

安徽省县级科技型企业发展存在问题及对策研究

县级科技型企业的发展受到来自国家及社会的高度关注,这些企业在产业发展、科技进步、产业升级、增加居民收入等方面起着至关重要的作用。县级科技型企业由于规模小、资源有限,发展的速度相对缓慢。文章通过对安徽省县级科技型企业发展的特点分析,找出其中存在的问题,并针对这些问题提出了＂建设产业园区,促进配套产业发展＂、＂建立健全人才培养机制,加强人才队伍建设＂、＂加大招商引资力度,优化信贷环境＂、＂引进先进管理理念,打造自有名牌＂、＂明确政府责任,营造良好投资环境＂等加快县级科技型企业发展对策。     

Automatic selection of a linear predictor through frequency domain cross-validation

Given data from a weakly stationary stochastic process in discrete time, and any L-step ahead linear predictor estimated from that data, we will construct an approximately unbiased estimator of the resulting mean squared error of L-step ahead linear prediction. The motivation for the estimator is based on frequency domain cross-validation, and hence the range of validity and applicability of the resulting selection method is not limited by particular assumptions about the structure of the underlying stochastic process or the form of the fitted linear predictors. We also propose a new frequency domain predictor fitting method. The method provides a natural finite-past analog to the existing spectral factorization techniques, and it compares favorably with the existing techniques, both asymptotically and for finite samples. In a Monte Carlo study, we compare several predictor selection methods, at lead times one and five. The performance criterion used is the mean squared prediction error of the selected predictor. The new selection methods work well, and a comparison of results for the two different lead times underscores the need for tailoring the selection criterion to suit the lead time.     

Policy Diffusion and Policy Transfer in Comparative Welfare State Research

For many years, comparative welfare state research has followed a ‘methodological nationalism’ in the sense that countries were treated as independent units. Yet the recent ‘spatial turn’ in comparative politics has also influenced welfare state research. For some years now, the field has been witnessing a growing interest in questions about interdependencies and policy diffusion between countries. In this article, we provide a structured overview of the state of the art in the policy diffusion and transfer literature that deals specifically with social policy. We present and critically evaluate existing theoretical concepts and quantitative and qualitative methodological approaches that enable the analysis of interdependencies between countries. Moreover, we summarize the empirical findings of quantitative and qualitative studies on the diffusion and transfer of social policy, from some pioneering studies to the latest findings. Against this background we point out what we believe to be promising avenues for future research. We focus on five areas: theoretical work on the mechanisms underlying diffusion and transfer; methodological approaches; the impact of domestic institutions and policy characteristics on social policy diffusion and transfer; programme‐specific dynamics; and the systematic combination of horizontal and vertical interdependencies.     

RESEARCH NOTE Some evidence against the assumption that approval of family planning is associated with frequency of spouses' discussion of the subject

Much previous work on the relationship between respondent's reported frequency of discussion with spouse about family planning and correctness of reporting spouse's approval of family planning has led to the conclusion that discussion promotes approval. In this paper, data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that a focus on the relationship between frequency of discussion and correctness of reporting partner's disapproval of family planning leads to sceptical conclusions about the effects of discussion in improving knowledge of partner's attitude or in promoting approval.     

经理股票期权制借鉴·问题·对策

阐述了企业经理人员股票期权制(ESO)的含义、作用和形式.分析了在我国现阶段推行该计划的主要问题,并据此提出了适合我国企业实情的对策.