Conditional Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decision Making: The Case of WIPP

Uncertainty analyses and the reporting of their results can be misinterpreted when these analyses are conditional on a set of assumptions generally intended to bring some conservatism in the decisions. In this paper, two cases of conditional uncertainty analysis are examined. The first case includes studies that result, for instance, in a family of risk curves representing percentiles of the probability distribution of the future frequency of exceeding specified consequence levels conditional on a set of hypotheses. The second case involves analyses that result in an interval of outcomes estimated on the basis of conservative assumptions. Both types of results are difficult to use because they are sometimes misinterpreted as if they represented the output of a full uncertainty analysis. In the first case, the percentiles shown on each risk curve may be taken at face value when in reality (in marginal terms) they are lower if the chosen hypotheses are conservative. In the second case, the fact that some segments of the resulting interval are highly unlikely—or that some more benign segments outside the range of results are quite possible—does not appear. Also, these results are difficult to compare to those of analyses of other risks, possibly competing for the same risk management resources, and the decision criteria have to be adapted to the conservatism of the hypotheses. In this paper, the focus is on the first type (conditional risk curves) more than on the second and the discussion is illustrated by the case of the performance assessment of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. For policy-making purposes, however, the problems of interpretation, comparison, and use of the results are similar.     

循环经济：电子垃圾治理之路

电子垃圾正成为危害人类生活的严重隐患。到目前为止 ,中国对电子垃圾的处理还没有形成有效的管理而电子垃圾已经严重破坏了中国农村的环境。新世纪的中国发展必须符合科学发展观 ,运用循环经济理念治理电子垃圾正是对科学发展观的具体实践。本文借助循环经济的“减量、再使用、再循环”的理念 ,分别从电子垃圾治理中的政府、厂商、消费者等角度出发 ,提出相应的行动建议 ,以实现电子垃圾治理的循环经济模式     

Place,people and processes in waste theory: a global South critique

Scholars across the humanities and social sciences have long sought to theorize waste, and more particularly the relationship between humans – their history, society, culture, art and thought – and their discards. My contention, though, is that these theories, since Mary Douglas’s Purity and Danger (1966) and Thompson’s Rubbish Theory (1979), have been predominantly based in and on global North contexts and, concomitantly, have taken as their axiom the distance between our cultures, lives, experiences and our material rejects. By intersecting existing cultural theories of waste with two important emerging schools of thought – environmental justice and new materialism – I argue that the exclusion or side-lining of places, notably in the global South where countless people live on a day-to-day basis with, on, and off waste, leads to certain imbalances, biases and gaps. Most notably, the livingness and agency of material rejects is often overlooked in theories that oppose humans and other-than-human waste. By way of conclusion, I propose the notion of ‘living waste’ – a more literal and material take on Bauman’s well-known concept ‘wasted lives’ – as a new point of departure for a reconceptualization of waste that might escape the prevailing dualisms and account simultaneously for ‘full-belly’ and ‘empty-belly’ contexts, human (wasted) lives and other-than-human waste materials, and understandings of lived experiences of waste.     

高校网络舆情的话题演变过程研究——以"地沟油事件"为例

以“地沟油事件”高校网络舆情研究为例,以传播学中的经典理论,如意见领袖、议程设置等为理论背景,采用抽样调查统计、数据分析等方法,探讨在特定突发事件下高校网络舆情的变化规律,以及对其进行正确引导的方法和措施。     

T.S.艾略特的反女权主义倾向

艾略特是二十世纪整个上半叶辉映西方文坛的先驱,他的早期代表作《荒原》被认为是“现代主义的宣言书”。通过对这首诗中的21位女性形象的梳理分析,笔者发现没有一位形象是积极正面的,而隐藏在这些形象描写的背后的诗人对她们的态度也是或斥责、或鄙夷、或嘲讽、或忽视,最多也只是居高临下的怜悯,这些都反映了诗人的反女权主义倾向和传统的男权视角。     

艾略特诗歌的用典败笔

本文从艾略特早期哲学思想中考察其追求诗歌的“隐晦”目标，并通过中西诗学观点的比较指出艾略特的“哲学诗歌”误区，这一误区导致他在早期诗歌特别是在《荒原》中使用“生典”和“硬典”的修辞败笔。     

船舶柴油机废热回收系统热经济性优化

以PA6柴油机为主机对5种不同的船舶废热回收系统分别以热经济性指标和锅炉最小传热_面:积作为目标函数,针对3种不同管形和2种不同管子排列形式的锅炉结构进行了热力学参数及锅炉结构参数优化,并且对5种废热回收系统进行了比较,分析了各个系统的优缺点.     

Using GIS in Risk Analysis: A Case Study of Hazardous Waste Transport

This paper provides an illustration of how a geographic information system (GIS) can be used in risk analysis. It focuses on liquid hazardous waste transport and utilizes records archived by the London Waste Regulatory Authority. This data source provides information on the origin and destination of each waste stream, but not the route followed during transport. A GIS was therefore employed to predict the paths used, taking into account different routing criteria and characteristics of the available road network. Details were also assembled on population distribution and ground-water vulnerability, thus providing a basis for evaluating the potential consequences of a waste spillage during transport. Four routing scenarios were implemented to identify sections of road which consistently saw heavy traffic. These simulations also highlighted that some interventions could lead to risk tradeoffs rather than hazard mitigation. Many parts of the research would not have been possible without a GIS, and the study demonstrates the considerable potential of such software in environmental risk assessment and management.     

论北京市城市生活垃圾处理的产业政策

随着城市经济的迅速发展,北京的城市生活垃圾产量与日俱增,生活垃圾的处理任务异常艰巨。本文回顾了北京生活垃圾处理业的市场化、产业化实践,结合国际生活垃圾处理市场化、产业化的经验,对北京市生活垃圾处理业的产业政策提出了相应建议。     

精神荒原，终极救赎——基督教视角下的《荒原》解读

目前关于《荒原》的宗教思想,主要存在“骑士寻找圣杯”和“个人精神世界的崩溃与重组过程”的观点,但两种观点各有其不足。尝试剖析艾略特的《荒原》创作根源,通过对《荒原》的主线分析,找出既能驾驭全诗各片断又能解决“荒原”缺水却有水的矛盾的是基督教主线,即“罪-遭上帝离弃-地狱-救赎”,同时还阐释了在该主线下衍生的无数基督教故事。基于以上分析,推断出艾略特在《荒原》中的创作视角为基督教视角;所表达的核心思想是信仰基督教才能摆脱精神荒原,得到最终救赎。