模糊语义研究方法论纲

研究模糊语义必须以查德的“模糊集”理论作指导．运用现代语言学和现代语义学以及相关学科的研究成果来进行研究。这样也就使得研究方法具有多角度、多层次的特点,从而形成一个方法论系统：从整体方法上看,可实行宏观研究与微观分析相结合、定性研究与定量描述相结合、一般规律研究与特殊规律研究相结合的方法;从具体方法上看,应该注重模糊语义学的“综合性的边缘学科”属性,强调不同学科之间的渗透,融合各相关学科的理论和知识,来对模糊语义展开全面而深入的研究。     

唯物史观理论体系逻辑起点问题研究综述

逻辑起点问题是重构唯物史观理论体系的首要问题。二十多年来,我国哲学界关于唯物史观理论体系逻辑起点的争论是很有意义的。在这场评论中,主要的观点有：以自然人,以“现实的人”,以物质生产活动或劳动,以实践,以社会存在、社会物质条件,以社会存在与社会意识的关系,以社会基本矛盾,以“现实的人”和劳动二位一体,以现实的人、人的需要（包括种的繁殖需要）、劳动三位一体和以需要与物质利益为逻辑起点。马克思主义重点建设工程及马克思主义哲学教科书应该吸收这场学术争鸣的积极成果,以推进马克思主义哲学理论体系的重构工作。     

Is the Study of Happiness a Worthy Scientific Pursuit?

This paper critiques the view that the study of happiness is not a worthy scientific pursuit. The happiness set point and hedonic treadmill theories denote the complexity of increasing happiness levels due to genetic limitations and adaptation, however, there is mounting evidence to suggest that with the use of appropriate measures and specific interventions aimed at fostering strengths and virtues, happiness can be increased. Furthermore, the benefits of investigating methods for increasing happiness include improvements in physical, psychological and social health and well-being. It is concluded that approaching human needs from a top down or holistic standpoint where individuals can use their strengths to overcome life’s challenges, is beneficial to health and well-being. Hence, the study of happiness is a worthy scientific pursuit.     

农产品品牌传播关键节点研究--基于青岛市农产品品牌触点管理的调研

褚橙、柳桃等品牌农产品的高调走红,吸引更多目光聚焦在农业这块“品牌荒地”,重新审视农产品品牌与消费者个性沟通体系的构建。基于品牌触点管理理论,结合青岛市农产品品牌触点管理的调研数据,文章指出产品、渠道、体验、品牌活动等触点是农产品品牌与消费者关系建立的关键点,是影响农产品品牌传播效果的重要元素。农产品品牌可强化产品整体概念,规范产品包装体系;甄选渠道,加大终端管理;深耕消费者体验,“定制”个性营销,以此提升品牌传播绩效。     

Fourier–type tests involving martingale difference processes

We develop testing procedures which detect if the observed time series is a martingale difference sequence. Furthermore, tests are developed that detect change–points in the conditional expectation of the series given its past. The test statistics are formulated following the approach of Fourier–type conditional expectations first proposed by Bierens (1982 Bierens, H. J. (1982). Consistent model speci?cation tests. J. Econometr. 20:105–134.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and have the advantage of computational simplicity. The limit behavior of the test statistics is investigated under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. Since the asymptotic null distribution contains unknown parameters, a bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to actually perform the test. The performance of the bootstrap version of the test is compared in finite samples with other methods for the same problem. A real–data application is also included.     

A Bayesian model for multiple change point to extremes,with application to environmental and financial data

Abrupt changes often occur for environmental and financial time series. Most often, these changes are due to human intervention. Change point analysis is a statistical tool used to analyze sudden changes in observations along the time series. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for extreme values for environmental and economic datasets that present a typical change point behavior. The model proposed in this paper addresses the situation in which more than one change point can occur in a time series. By analyzing maxima, the distribution of each regime is a generalized extreme value distribution. In this model, the change points are unknown and considered parameters to be estimated. Simulations of extremes with two change points showed that the proposed algorithm can recover the true values of the parameters, in addition to detecting the true change points in different configurations. Also, the number of change points was a problem to be considered, and the Bayesian estimation can correctly identify the correct number of change points for each application. Environmental and financial data were analyzed and results showed the importance of considering the change point in the data and revealed that this change of regime brought about an increase in the return levels, increasing the number of floods in cities around the rivers. Stock market levels showed the necessity of a model with three different regimes.     

Palm Distributions for Log Gaussian Cox Processes

This paper establishes a remarkable result regarding Palm distributions for a log Gaussian Cox process: the reduced Palm distribution for a log Gaussian Cox process is itself a log Gaussian Cox process that only differs from the original log Gaussian Cox process in the intensity function. This new result is used to study functional summaries for log Gaussian Cox processes.     

Tests for Structural Changes in Time Series of Counts

We propose methods for detecting structural changes in time series with discrete‐valued observations. The detector statistics come in familiar L2‐type formulations incorporating the empirical probability generating function. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. For both models, we study mainly structural changes due to a change in distribution, but we also comment for the classical problem of parameter change. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is also included along with a real data example.