论高等师范教育实践课程的变革

高师现行沿用的教育实践课程制度存在课时总量不足 ,学科课程与实践课程比例失衡 ;以教育实习为主 ,形式单一、实践与理论隔离、内涵缺失等问题。由此出发 ,教育实践课程改革应在以下层面进行 :增加教育实践课程课时总量 ,使学科课程与实践课程取得动态平衡 ;形成多阶段、多形式的教育实践内容体系 ;整合理论与实践 ,创生新的教育实践模式 ;更新评价理念 ,合理运用多种评价方式。同时 ,教育实践课程改革还要特别关注硬件和软件建设。     

BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.     

Stochastic Modelling of Times to Temperature for Furnaces Supplying Titanium Blooms to a Rolling Mill at TIMET

In conjunction with TIMET at Waunarlwydd (Swansea, UK) a model has been developed that will optimise the scheduling of various blooms to their eight furnaces so as to minimise the time taken to roll these blooms into the finished mill products. This production scheduling model requires reliable data on times taken for the various furnaces that heat the slabs and blooms to reach the temperatures required for rolling. These times to temperature are stochastic in nature and this paper identifies the distributional form for these times using the generalised F distribution as a modelling framework. The times to temperature were found to be similarly distributed over all furnaces. The identified distributional forms were incorporated into the scheduling model to optimise a particular campaign that was run at TIMET Swansea. Amongst other conclusion it was found that, compared to the actual campaign, the model produced a schedule that reduced the makespan by some 35%.     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

论绿色消费方式的形成

绿色消费是可持续发展的消费方式,它的形成对人类可持续发展具有重要意义。论文主张从建立可持续发展的消费价值观,建立合理的财富分配秩序,调整经济结构和生产方式,并依靠科技进步和发挥政府的主导作用来促进绿色消费的形成。     

科学配置合并组建高校的文献信息资源

组建高校面临着全校文献信息资源的重组和合理配置 ,针对合并组建高校的文献信息资源重组和配置采取正确的对策和措施 ,发挥数字化文献信息资源的作用 ,从而充分发挥合并组建高校文献信息资源的整体效益     

On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.     

A bayesian estimator for the dependence function of a bivariate extreme‐value distribution

Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set.     

浅析格式合同及其解释、效力

随着市场经济的发展 ,格式合同应用越来越普遍 ,随之带来的是法律对其规定的日益完善。文章通过对格式合同历史发展过程的简要分析 ,阐述了对格式合同的解释存在歧义时 ,应作不利于提供格式合同一方的解释 ,格式合同的条款无效的效力也限于提供合同的一方 ,另一方不承担相应的无效责任     

民法本位研究述论

民法本位是民法的根本指归。近现代民法本位未变,即都是权利本位、个人本位。个人本位比权利本位更为本原,称其为民为本位,则更确切。可在广义社会法下的经济法等和其它行政法中确定社会本位乃至国家本位。民法本位是民法的出发点,民法价值是民法的归结点,均蕴含并体现在民法基本原则中。