HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

江苏省大学城建设中高校的债务风险及其化解

在大学城建设过程中,银行贷款在促进高等教育事业发展、改善高校办学条件的同时,也使高校背上了沉重的债务负担,给高校带来了较高的债务风险。就江苏省大学城建设中高校存在的债务风险及其产生的原因进行了分析,并从教育产权的角度提出了化解债务风险的措施。     

关于规范"知识经济"的前提条件--试与叶险明先生商榷

知识经济是以知识为基础的经济，它不仅作为一种人们对现代科学技术革命所造就的生产力发展的程度及其趋势窥视，展望和预见的标示，而且是一种把知识视为可以市场化的主导性社会资源的新经济形态，规范这种新经济形态的现实基础。不仅要在现代科学技术革命所带来年 技术工具性的变化中去寻找，更重要的，还应在由此所推进的人的主体性的提升和人类社会经济组织方式的变勒中去寻找，要科学地规范“知识经济”这一崭新的经济形态，不应该用某种预设的“偏好”设置种种“障眼法”来误导理论，而应该以尊重有这种新经济形态的“是然”观察为前提条件。     

股权概念的认定

从我国公司立法出发 ,在明确公司法人财产权及其与股权的关系的基础上 ,分析了关于股权的各种观点 ,对股权的概念作了一番理论探讨 ,认为股权是基于公司法的规定 ,股东因出资而享有的一种以经济利益为核心的 ,具有支配性和请求性以及可转让性的财产权利     

平行进口问题探析

平行进口涉及知识产权和国际贸易,其法律关系相当复杂。至今,世界范围内对此仍无统一规定,各国立法亦不尽相同。着重阐述平行进口的涵义、各国立法现状及我国在加入WTO后应如何完善等问题。     

The analysis of incomplete data using stochastic covariates

In the development of many diseases there are often associated random variables which continuously reflect the progress of a subject towards the final expression of the disease (failure). At any given time these processes, which we call stochastic covariates, may provide information about the current hazard and the remaining time to failure. Likewise, in situations when the specific times of key prior events are not known, such as the time of onset of an occult tumour or the time of infection with HIV-1, it may be possible to identify a stochastic covariate which reveals, indirectly, when the event of interest occurred. The analysis of carcinogenicity trials which involve occult tumours is usually based on the time of death or sacrifice and an indicator of tumour presence for each animal in the experiment. However, the size of an occult tumour observed at the endpoint represents data concerning tumour development which may convey additional information concerning both the tumour incidence rate and the rate of death to which tumour-bearing animals are subject. We develop a stochastic model for tumour growth and suggest different ways in which the effect of this growth on the hazard of failure might be modelled. Using a combined model for tumour growth and additive competing risks of death, we show that if this tumour size information is used, assumptions concerning tumour lethality, the context of observation or multiple sacrifice times are no longer necessary in order to estimate the tumour incidence rate. Parametric estimation based on the method of maximum likelihood is outlined and is applied to simulated data from the combined model. The results of this limited study confirm that use of the stochastic covariate tumour size results in more precise estimation of the incidence rate for occult tumours.     

物业管理合同种类辨析

物业管理合同是现代物业管理法律关系中最为核心的内容。前期物业管理合同与普通物业管理合同是物业管理中两个相互衔接的合同 ,两者在合同的签订时间、主体以及期限方面都有所不同。通过对物业管理合同与雇佣合同、承揽合同、委托合同的比较分析 ,提出物业管理合同是包括诸多法律因素的混名合同 ,主张将物业管理合同有名化     

马克思产权理论及其先导性再认识

不管学界和实业界如何去推动国企产权制度的重新安排,都仍有必要深挖马克思产权理论,以此来指导我国国企改革,使其沿着社会主义方向前进,更好地为社会主义市场经济服务。     

简论晚清新式企业内部管理的若干改革主张

晚清时期,人们通过对西方企业管理活动的考察,反思了各类新式企业实践活动中的诸多管理弊端,提出了许多改善企业内部管理的主张,这些改革建议涉及到企业的各个方面,诸如人事管理、财产物质管理、成本费用管理、市场营销与资金管理等。     

随机型细胞神经网络的稳定性

借助于李雅谱洛夫理论、矩阵分析方法和It?公式,结合不等式分析技巧,研究了随机细胞神经网络系统的均方指数稳定性,给出了系统的解的二阶矩Liapunov指数估计式和均方指数稳定的充分条件。